Subject: Econ Forecast for Nov. 30 - Dec. 5, 2025
Econ Forecast for Nov. 30 - Dec. 5, 2025
November 30th, 2025 at 9:27 am ESTHi Folks. So the avalanche of postponed numbers I was fearing has not happened yet, and honestly, looks like it may never happen. As noted last week, FF and the Department of Labor jammed about 8 or 9 unreleased Unemployment numbers into the rele ...
Econ Forecast for Nov. 23-28, 2025
November 23rd, 2025 at 5:14 pm ESTHi Folks. So the US Government shutdown is officially over, just in time for the Holiday Silly Season to get underway. We start off Silly Season with the US Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday (banks and markets are all closed) and only a partial work ...
Econ Forecast for Nov. 16-21, 2025
November 16th, 2025 at 9:41 am ESTHi Folks. So it seems I got a little ahead of myself (and the US Government) when I sent that email out last week declaring the shutdown was over. It turned out it was only mostly over which as we all know, mostly over means still ongoing . But i ...
Econ Forecast Update (Good News I Guess)
November 10th, 2025 at 6:56 am ESTHi Folks. I woke up this morning to the news a bunch of senators caved overnight and voted to reopen the US Government. As of this morning there is no noticeable change to the FF calendar, but I expect those changes to begin almost immediately. I w ...
Econ Forecast for Nov. 9-14, 2025
November 9th, 2025 at 10:53 am ESTHi Folks. Welcome to yet another week of Government Shutdown Trading. I've pretty much given up trying to guess when the necessary pulling of heads out of asses will occur and our elected officials will begin to at least fake giving a damn about th ...
Econ Forecast for Nov. 2-7, 2025
November 2nd, 2025 at 8:02 am ESTHi Folks. As of today (Friday, Oct. 31) we have officially endured 31 days of the US Government shutdown. The record, according to Google, is 35 days, set in 2018 during the first Trump Administration. So unless they get this thing solved by mid-we ...
Econ Forecast for October 26-31, 2025
October 26th, 2025 at 5:11 pm ESTHi Folks. A quick word about last week's CPI. Last week I wrote it was unlikely to make a Friday appearance as scheduled on the FF calendar, and yet, there it was Friday morning at 8:30 as promised. I was as shocked as anyone to see the charts go n ...
Econ Forecast for October 19-24, 2025
October 19th, 2025 at 11:18 am ESTHi Folks. As the US Government shutdown drags into its third full week, many of you (and me) have noticed that price action in the Futures markets have taken on a decidedly Forex-like psychotic spiking practice, something I just never noticed in Fu ...
Econ Forecast for Oct. 12-17, 2025
October 12th, 2025 at 8:57 am ESTHi Folks. Unless something unforeseen happens (like cooperation between all parties involved) this will be the second full week of the US Government shutdown, and as expected, most of the US numbers have been MIA since it started. The few that have ...
Econ Forecast for Oct. 5-10, 2025
October 5th, 2025 at 10:33 am ESTHi Folks. Welcome to this week's forecast. As I mentioned in the email I sent out mid-week, the U.S. Government failed to reach a budget compromise and as a result has shut down all non-essential services. What that means for us is a serious reduct ...