Hi Folks.

So the avalanche of postponed numbers I was fearing has not happened yet, and honestly, looks like it may never happen.  As noted last week, FF and the Department of Labor jammed about 8 or 9 unreleased Unemployment numbers into the "released" column over a 2 day period a few days before.  Such a thing may well have happened with other numbers, and I expect I will see evidence of that as I go through the calendar this weekend maybe next.

But with no advance notice and no fanfare, that means the older numbers are there only to fill in the blank spots created by their delay. They aren't intended to help traders make any sort of informed decision.

Which brings us to this coming Friday.  The FF calendar fails to mention that the US NFP numbers should be dropping at 8:30 as usual. There is no mention of the NFP anywhere within the 4 walls of this week's calendar, even though the BLS still shows the number set for release on Friday Dec. 5th.  I'll go into this a bit more when we get to the Friday US numbers, but be aware it looks like there are still some shenanigans left to be played before we are 100% back to normal.

With all that in mind, here's this week's forecast.

SUNDAY: Several numbers set to drop in the first 3+ hours after the markets open at 5:00 p.m., but we've covered every one of them for 2+years and not a one of them has generated anything more than a whimper on the charts.  But at 8:05 p.m. Ueda from the BOJ is set to speak with business leaders in Nagoya. No idea how widely this will be broadcast (if at all) or covered after the fact. But Ueda is up there with Powell and Lagarde in terms of importance, so even if you're not following his speech, just be aware he's out there and can torpedo an otherwise perfectly good trade with a single word or phrase. So be aware. Finally, somewhat surprisingly because of the time, our buddy Nagel from the German Buba is speaking at 11:00 p.m.. Given it is zero dark thirty in Germany right about then, it makes more sense when you learn he's giving some sort of speech in Seoul, Korea.  And he's also at the level of Powell and Lagarde, so be careful with your trades while he's speaking.

MONDAY:  Asian/London Session: We start with a zero impact number out of Australia at 12:30 a.m., the Commodity Prices y/y number. Rarely moves more than 4 or 5. Pass. At 2:30 the Swiss release their Retail Sales number, and I went as far as to look at the last 3 month's worth of numbers before I remembered it's all chocolate, Army knives and cuckoo clocks, so the moves of 5, 13 and 6 pips should come as no surprise. Pass.  Then we get the Manufacturing PMI numbers from all over, specifically Spain @ 3:15, Switzerland @ 3:30 a.m., Italy @ 3:45 a.m., France @ 3:50 a.m., Germany @ 3:55 a.m., Eurozone @ 4:00 a.m., Great Britain @ 4:30 a.m. (along with a bunch of other meaningless numbers I won't mention beyond this), and Canada @ 9:30 a.m.   Watch for a trend to develop. Trend = Trade, No Trend = No Trade. There is some British Fed Speak at 10:30 a.m., New Zealand Fed Speak at 4:10 p.m., followed by the New Zealand Overseas Trade Index, which is a non-event, numbers wise, so Pass. Japan's Monetary Base number releases at 6:50 p.m., but the last three month's numbers of 11, 12 and 3 = Pass.  2 Australian numbers (Current Account and Building Approvals m/m) do nothing in terms of tradeable price action so yet another Pass, and at 10:35 p.m. Japan holds their monthly 10 year Bond Auction. Say it with me: Pass.

          USA Session: We open at 9:45 a.m. with the Final Manufacturing PMI, which traders simply ignore, but follow up at 10:00 with the ISM Manufacturing PMI, along with ISM Manufacturing Prices, which is a second tier inflation number.  The last 3 months generated 32, 29 and 13 pips.  That final month pip nosedive is slightly concerning, but it did take place during the shutdown so let's give them a free pass on this one and at least pay attention to price action.  We don't have a lot of news entries that traditionally move price around 30 pips on the calendar this week, so let's not discard this one too cavalierly. After everyone has gone for the day we get Powell performing his Fed Speak act at 8:00 p.m. as part of some panel discussion at Stanford University out on the Left Coast. You can't trade it but it can screw things up for you if you're trading at 8 o'clock at night on a Monday. which, you know, you probably shouldn't be doing in the first place.

TUESDAY:  Asian/London Session: 12 midnight's Japanese Consumer Confidence number routinely lands in the 8-12 pip range, so pass.  Great Britain releases all the reports (not numbers) related to their last interest rate decision, but reports aren't tradeable either. Pass.  Some minor numbers out of some individual EU member states do nothing for price action, and the 5:00 a.m. Core CPI number goes out of its way to prove once again if it isn't the US CPI (or Great Britain's) you can ignore it.  Although the September number did land at 24, which is very respectable and over my 20 pip Red Line of Death for deciding trade/don't trade. But most of the other numbers on either side of it are single or very low double digit numbers. So Pass for now.  A floating New Zealand GDT Price Index number has no set time for release, as usual, so Pass. New Zealand also has the ANZ Commodity Prices m/m number but like most NZ numbers it fails to inspire. Pass.  We close out the day with the Australian GDP q/q number, which also goes to prove the point that GDP numbers not from the US of A or Great Britain, are basically not worth trading. And like its Euro CPI counterpart from earlier in the day, most of the time the numbers are single digit or low double digit, but 2 months ago surprised with a 21 pip move. But that just isn't enough to make me forget months of 8-11 pip results. So Pass.  

          USA Session: 10:00 a.m. Fed Speak with that tentative RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism number that should be a 10:00 a.m. number as well but usually doesn't show up until 10:06 or later. And honestly, when it does show up, no one notices. So don't lose any sleep over this one. That floating Ward's Total Vehicle Sales is also on calendar today and also can be ignored as it never comes out at the same time and when it drops no one hears it make a sound. Pass.  Lastly is that API Weekly Oil Report, which isn't tradeable, so no one cares.

WEDNESDAY:  Asian/London Session: We open with the Swiss CPI m/m number, but it's yet another CPI number that routinely posts 8, 9 and 16 pips (the results from the last 3 months) so it isn't worth bothering with. Then we get the Service PMI numbers from all over everywhere, starting with Spain @ 3:15 a.m., Italy @ 3:45 a.m., France @ 3:50 a.m., Germany @ 3:55 a.m., Eurozone @ 4:00 a.mm., and Great Britain at 4:30 a.m.  Same rules as before: Trend = Trade, No Trend = No Trade.  At 5:00 a.m. the Eurozone releases their PPI number, but that one has routinely failed to impress for as far back as I can remember and consistently posts single digit numbers (6, 6 and 8 the last 3 months) so a huge Mega-Pass.  Canadian Labor Productivity q/q is one of the lower tier Canadian numbers that fails to move things around like the higher tier does, so Pass here as well.  We also have Lagarde speaking at 8:30 a.m. and again at 10:30 a.m. so be aware she's out there this morning. British Fed Speak at 12 noon, followed by the Australian Goods Trade Balance and Household Spending numbers. Neither inspire and can be safely ignored.    

          USA Session: A few entries this morning, but not much to work with. We get Import Prices at 8:30 a.m., followed by Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production m/m at 9:00 a.m. All three of these are supposed to be the numbers released 47 days ago, and while the current numbers are generally ignored, numbers a month and a half late to the party will be invisible to traders. So Pass and don't worry about their impact if you have any open trades when they drop. An absolute non-event. The  9:45 a.m. Final Services PMI won't do anything price action wise, and the 10:00 a.m. ISM Services PMI isn't much better lately.  The last 3 months have posted 15, 22 and 17 pips. Not terrible numbers, but 2 out of 3 fell below the 20 pip line, so don't get too excited by this one in spite of the fact we don't have much of anything else to work with. Crude Oil at 10:30 a.m. closes us out for the day.

THURSDAY:  Asian/London Session: Swiss Unemployment at 3:00 a.m. and British Construction PMI at 4:30 a.m. Both have long and storied histories of doing nothing for price action, so Pass. The Eurozone Retail Sales number at 5:00 suffers much the same fate, posting 12, 11 and 4 pip moves in the half hour after the last 3 numbers dropped. So Pass here as well.  Spanish and French Bond Auctions are tentative, so an easy Pass, as is British Fed Speak at 7:45 a.m. The Japanese Household Spending number at 6:30 p.m. is essentially a non-event trading-wise (10, 19 and 8 pips the last 3 months, but that 19 pip day was an outlier and most numbers land around 10 pips). The only entry of any minimal interest is the Ivey PMI out of Canada at 10:00 a.m.  3 months ago it posted a very healthy 35 pip move. The next two months went the wrong way at 11 and 16 pips, but the overall number Ivey posts over the last couple of years has been well north of 20 pips. So at a minimum, pay attention and maybe this one will turn out to be the only 5 Star trade of the day.

          USA Session: Challenger Job Cuts drop at 7:30 a.m., so that alone earns it a Pass. At 8:30 we finally get a real live Weekly Unemployment number (not to be confused with that dump truck full of numbers that spilled its load all over the calendar late last week). The numbers that were dumped all landed in the 224-226 thousand range, so that seems a might unhealthy from an economic point of view. But we have no idea how much time was spent compiling all those numbers so long after the fact. But traders know what they were in terms of size ,and now we can compare that to whatever appears at 8:30 this morning, and then trade accordingly. Just don't be surprised by any of the outcomes because this is just one very strange situation from start to finish. NatGas is 10:30 with Fed Speak at noon to close out our session.  

FRIDAY:  Asian/London Session: From midnight to 5:00 a.m. we have a short list of meaningless numbers that I doubt were ever designed to cause price to move even a little.  I mentioned last week that on Friday, I think it was, I was seeing numbers listed I could not recall ever seeing before, and it seemed like FF was just trying to fill a bunch of empty space with meaningless numbers.  That's what these are. But at 8:30 a.m. we get the Canadian version of the NFP, and that one has moved the USDCAD anywhere from 25 to 100 pips over the last several months.  So that's the one set of numbers you should focus upon today and ignore all the others.

          USA Session: First Friday of the month can only mean one thing, right?  NFP Friday. Unfortunately, the NFP is nowhere to be seen on the calendar today (Friday, the day I'm writing this), and we do not have any numbers listed until 10:00 a.m., when we get that Core PCE Price Index (allegedly the Fed's favorite inflation measuring tool) and the Preliminary UofM Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations numbers. An interesting combo to close out the morning and both numbers (PCE and UofM) are known to shove prices around enough to make them tradeable.  So well worth a look.

But as for the NFP, if I were you, and in some ways I am, I am going into Friday at 8:30 a.m. assuming I am going to at a minimum see price action as if a NFP number just landed, even if I can't find any place where those numbers are posted.  We have gone two straight months without a timely NFP release, so unless the Government is simply getting out of the NFP business entirely, I fully expect we will see the number as expected.

And that's all the news that's fit to print for another week. See you next Sunday with next week's forecast.

Jeff

P.S.: And for those of you wondering why the futures markets were closed late Thursday night into Friday morning (an unscheduled break) the reason was the server farm/data center used by CME Group apparently overheated and shut down for about 10 hours or so, stopping the chart data flow from reaching platforms around the world. So if you couldn't place a trade or see a live chart until after 8 a.m. Eastern Time Friday morning, that is the reason why.