Hi Folks.

So it seems I got a little ahead of myself (and the US Government) when I sent that email out last week declaring the shutdown was over.  It turned out it was only "mostly over" which as we all know, "mostly over" means "still ongoing". But it's over now and the fun begins. As of today (Friday the 14th) the calendar only reflects a handful of US reports and only a few of them, as far as I can see, are from private organizations and involve reports that were released as usual during the shutdown.

However, I am on guard and aware of the possibility that numbers will come out either as a total surprise or with very little advance warning as various agencies play catch-up and start clearing their decks of old business.

So you are getting this week's forecast more or less on time, but as I hear of any significant numbers being added last minute I will advise you as quickly as I can.

But in any event, do not rely solely on what I am writing this week.  Keep a calendar open and double check for any late addons before you put any real money into play. And that will be the rule for the next 2-3 weeks or so as old numbers and new numbers start filtering down from on high.

So here's the forecast based on today's lineup for next week.

SUNDAY: New Zealand leads us off with a pair of numbers that drop before the markets even open, so no worries there. At 6:50 p.m. we get Japanese Preliminary GDP and GDP Price Index. This one is an odd duck. 3 months ago we saw a 40 pip move after the number dropped. 2 months ago we saw like 8 pips or so. Then last month from 7:45 to 8:00 the USDJPY dropped 7 pips, which in my book, when 2 out of 3 months are 10 pips or less it's a solid Pass. BUT, in August (the last time the number dropped) we saw 7 pips in movement for the remaining 10 minutes before the top of the next hour, then in the next hour and 15 minutes we saw a 60 pip drop with very little by way of price reversals. There was nothing else on the calendar that we could link to that drop, so it looks like traders just took a few minutes to get warmed up.  And when 2 out of 3 months shows us 40-60 pips after a number makes an appearance, that's a solid Pay Close Attention.  So pay close attention to this one. It might be the first (or one of the first) Sunday evening numbers that actually makes anyone some money. At 7:01 p.m. the GBP's Rightmove Housing Price Index is an automatic Pass since the GBP is all in bed right now, dreaming about trading tomorrow morning. Finally we get another Japanese number, the Revised Industrial Production y/y number, which tends to post a whopping 5-6 pip moves after release. Mushi Suru (which is supposed to be Japanese for "Ignore").

MONDAY:  Asian/London Session: Early morning data is virtually non-existent. There is a 5:00 a.m. report out of the EU but it's a report, not a number.  We go all the way to 8:30 a.m. for the Canadian CPI in its multiple versions (Overall, Core, Median, Trimmed and so on). It's a similar situation to that Japanese number Sunday evening. 3 months ago the number generated a 30 pip move in the half hour after release, but kept going straight up for 3 more hours and ultimately sparked a 60+ pip move. 2 months back was an anemic 14 pips, but last month posted 25 pips. So once again, 2 out of 3 ain't bad, so keep an eye on this one as well. It's probably worth a trade. Tonight at 7:30 the Aussies release the minutes from their last Interest Rate decision. Not a number so nothing much we can do with it.

          USA Session: 8:30 a.m. brings us the Empire State Manufacturing Index (from the NY Fed, so this one is pretty much a lock to show up) but it's not exactly a number that generates a lot of activity.  Then at 9:00 we get Fed Speak, followed by more of the same at 3:35 p.m. Nothing much to work with today.

TUESDAY:  Asian/London Session: Nothing in the overnight session. Our first entry is 8:00 a.m. with GBP Fed Speak, with more coming in at 12:00 noon. At 4:45 p.m. New Zealand drops their PPI Output and PPI Input numbers.  Maybe it's just a matter of my aging brain showing signs of slowing down, but I honestly do not ever remember seeing this pair of numbers appear on the calendar before.  Apparently it's been coming out quarterly for some time now. And in the last 3 months it has posted moves of 4, 4, and 3 pips, so that might have something to do with my memory block. Pass.  6:30 p.m. brings us the Melbourne Institute Leading Index number for Australia, and like all Index numbers of every stripe, it does nothing to move price around. Pass.  At 6:50 p.m. Japan releases their Core Machinery Orders m/m and Trade Balance numbers, numbers that normally come out separately. But separately neither one generates more than 9-10 pips and usually a lot less. So both are pretty safe Passes. Finally at 7:30 p.m. the Aussies release their Wage Price Index, which FF has labeled as a Red Folder number. We all know what that means. Absolutely nothing. And 2 of the last 3 releases couldn't even hit 10 pips. But 2 months ago, after a similar slow start, the AUDUSD shot up an additional 40 pips, on a number that came in a tick better than expected. But this number has missed in both directions by 1-2 ticks and not seen this level of price action. So let's call this one a Maybe. I hate to discard it based on the previous two smaller numbers and have it blast off for a hundred pips after release. So maybe keep one eye on it instead of two.

          USA Session: We have a few Tentatives listed right off the bat.  Import Prices, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, all of which are provided by various government agencies and whose last prior number comes from September. So maybe they show and maybe they don't. The good news is even in normal times no one pays any attention to these three. So no need to get excited over them.  The National Association of Home Builders releases their Market Index number at 10:00. Pass.  The TIC Long Term Purchases number shows up for 4:00 p.m. but also failed to appear for the October number. But like the earlier numbers, it won't matter. It's 4 p.m. and no one cares about it anyway. That weekly Oil Bulletin (report, not number) is set for 4:30 and we close our day with Fed Speak at 10:30 p.m. (and it's set for Washington D.C. so there must be some trade group composed of people having trouble falling asleep. No worries. A Fed Speech at 10:30 p.m. will fix that problem quick, fast and in a hurry).

WEDNESDAY:  Asian/London Session: We start with GBP CPI in all its forms, and this is one of those numbers it's almost always worth watching. 3 months ago 27 pips, 2 months ago 16 pips (yes, it pulled up short) but last month was a 50 pip freefall in the first half hour, followed by 30 more over the next 90 minutes or so.  Again, 2 out of 3 ain't bad, and the previous two good results are more indicative of what to expect with this one.  4:00 a.m. brings the Eurozone Current Account number, which tends to miss by a mile on the regular, but never seems to generate more than 10-15 pips.  Pass.  The UK releases a generic Housing Price Index which is a hard Pass.  5:00 a.m. means it's time for the Eurozone CPI numbers, and this is a textbook example of why I say not all CPI numbers are created equal.  While we expect mid double digits on the US version, the EU numbers the last 3 months have been 7, 7, and 12. An extremely hard PASS! We close the entire session at 9:00 p.m. with Australian Fed Speak.

          USA Session: So Building Permits and Housing Starts are both listed as tentative and did not show up in October, but once again, no one cares either way. Crude Oil is at 10:30 a.m. and the Fed Meeting Minutes are released at 2:00 p.m. while simultaneously we get Fed Speak unrelated to the Minutes.  That's it.

THURSDAY:  Asian/London Session: 2:00 a.m. gets us the Swiss Trade Balance and the German PPI m/m, neither of which will move their respective currencies around enough to justify comment.  Pass.  At 6:00 a.m. the German Buba Monthly Report is just that...a report, while the GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations is one of the very lesser GBP numbers and can be safely ignored as well.  Canada has a pair of Producer Price Index numbers at 8:30 a.m. but these are part of those second tier Canadian numbers that don't do much on a regular basis. Yet another Pass.  The 10:00 a.m. European Consumer Confidence number has a long history of doing nothing for currency prices, so Pass here as well. The Brits have some Fed Speak at 1:30 p.m., then at 4:45 p.m. New Zealand has a Trade Balance number and like most NZ numbers, it just doesn't excite traders. Pass. Australia has the Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI numbers at 5:00 p.m. (Japan has the Manufacturing number alone at 7:30 p.m.) and these don't really move things around much on their own, but might give us an idea of what to expect tomorrow when the rest of the Globe starts releasing their own numbers. At 7:01 p.m., when the entire country is asleep, GB releases their GfK Consumer Confidence number. What does it say about your own confidence in your Confidence number when you release it after midnight? Pass. Finally New Zealand releases a Credit Card Spending number y/y at 9:00 p.m.  As noted earlier, most NZ numbers have zero impact on currency prices and this one is no exception. In reviewing this write-up I realized I forgot to mention the Japanese National Core CPI y/y number at 6:30 p.m.  Probably because this one is usually a single digit pip producer most months. Pass.

          USA Session: Philly Fed Manufacturing Index number at 8:30 a.m., and this one still isn't getting anyone excited yet. Weekly Unemployment, normally an 8:30 a.m. number as well, is still listed as Tentative. Fed Speak at 8:50 a.m. Existing Home Sales at 10:00 and while there are some rumblings that the housing market is facing some issues, it's doubtful anything will manifest in terms of major price action based on this number. At least not for the time being.  The Conference Board Leading Index number is Tentative, normally a 10:00 a.m. number, but universally ignored in any event. Pass.  Fed Speak at 11:00 and 12:40.  The Federal Budget Balance is back on calendar this week as Tentative, in spite of there still being no budget. So Pass just on general principles.  We end this fiasco of a day at 4:30 p.m. with yet more Fed Speak. ***LATE ADDITION*** According to the FF Calendar on Saturday morning, October's NFP numbers will drop at 8:30 a.m. today. Will these numbers have the same effect being 40 days late as they might have had being on time?  Tune in and find out. But it is the NFP and aside from the CPI and the Fed Interest rate decision, this is the biggest number to drop in 40+ days. So do not ignore it.

FRIDAY:  Asian/London Session: We start closing out our week of pretty decent British numbers with one that has been a little hit or miss lately. Retail Sales at 2:00 a.m. has either been in the mid-teens or 40+ pip. Take your pick.  Based on that 40 I can't just discard this one, so make it a Maybe and don't be afraid to bail out early if 20 pips seems like it's a bridge too far.  After the GBP Retail Sales number we get the onslaught of European PMI numbers: France @ 3:15 a.m., Germany @ 3:30 a.m., Eurozone @ 4:00 a.m. and GB @ 4:30 a.m. Like always, watch for a trend to develop and trade in that direction. No Trend = No Trades (based on these numbers alone, anyway). We also have Lagarde from the ECB speaking at 3:30 a.m., and since it's Lagarde, don't forget she's out there prattling on about something. It could mean the disastrous end of a very good trade for you if you forget. Then there is even more high-powered Fed Speak with Schlegel, head of the Swiss National Bank at 7:40 a.m., and our old friend Nagel from the German Buba at 8:00 a.m. Canada closes us out with their Retail Sales numbers at 9:30 a.m., along with their own National Housing Price Index.  6-8 pips is the average after the Retail Sales release for the Loonie, so it's a definite PASS! Actually, British Fed Speak closes us out at 10:40 a.m., but it's pretty much the same thing either way. Pass.

          USA Session: Two sets of numbers today that will see the light of day.  The Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI numbers at 9:45 a.m., followed by the Revised UofM Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations numbers at 10:00.  These Flash numbers are NOT the ISM numbers traders tend to follow and trade, so in spite of their Red Folder status, I would be extra careful about trading these without some very good other reasons to support your decision. Likewise at 10:00 we get the Revised UofM numbers, and the revised versions rarely live up to the Preliminary numbers that come out a week or two earlier.  The last three months of numbers have generated 17, 14 and 15 pips.  Not the worst we've ever seen, but not 20+ which is really where you should be focused with your trading. But as these are the last numbers for the week, if you absolutely must trade something, these are probably as good as anything else you'll find out there on a late Friday morning. And with the numbers out of the way we only need to deal with all the Fed Speak, starting at 7:30 a.m. and continuing through 8:30, 8:45, and 9:00. And because I don't read real good, we actually close with a "tentative" Treasury Currency Report, which means we can do nothing with or about it.

And so goes another week.  See you next Sunday with probably a whole lot more of the same.

Jeff