Hi Folks.
Unless something unforeseen happens (like cooperation between all parties involved) this will be the second full week of the US Government shutdown, and as expected, most of the US numbers have been MIA since it started. The few that have dropped are either released from private companies or come from a Government Agency not affected by the shutdown, like the Department of Energy (good news for Oil and NatGas traders). So once again this week's US analysis is fairly brief and will remain so until such time as the impasse is resolved and the US Government can return to their profligate spending ways.
Here is this week's forecast.
SUNDAY: Another No Surprise Sunday night session, with a pair of New Zealand numbers (BusinessNZ Services Index and Visitor Arrivals m/m) set for 5:30 and 5:45 p.m. respectively. The times are interesting because 5-1/2 to 5-3/4 pips is likely all the price action you'll see on this one, so as usual, Pass.
MONDAY: Asian/London Session: Another session filled with Filler Numbers not designed to aid traders in any way, shape or form. German Wholesale Price Index (WPI) at 2:00 a.m. generates a whopping 10-12 pips on average. Pass. British Fed Speak at 7:05 a.m. 9:30 a.m. brings the GBP Conference Board Leading Index number which never generates any activity on any currency at any time, so Pass. 3:10 p.m. is more British Fed Speak, and 7:01 p.m. brings us the British BRC Retail Sales Monitor number (after midnight UK time so an automatic pass). Japan has the M2 Money Stock y/y number at 7:50 which routinely checks in with less than a 20 pips move, so Pass. 8:30 p.m. brings us the Australian Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, which might have some impact during the session once the contents are digested by the big boy traders, but not much any of us can do with it, and the NAB Business Confidence number, a perennial sub-20 pip mover. Pass. And Canada is closed today for Canadian Thanksgiving.
USA Session: The US Government is still closed because of the budget impasse, but is also closed for Columbus Day, so even the essential workers get the day off, I suppose. The Banks will be closed so FX traders will notice a difference, but the Futures markets remain open, albeit with a likely lower volume level of trades, but open is open.
TUESDAY: Asian/London Session: A set of numbers start us off at 2:00 a.m., with German Final CPI (moves the EURUSD not at all) and the British version of the NFP which moves the GBPUSD muchly, at least most of the time. Last month was a dud (13 pips) but 20's and 30's is the norm. So pay attention. Swiss PPI at 2:30 a.m. generates on average 6 pips. I have no idea what the Swiss make aside from chocolate, cuckoo clocks and Army Knives, but apparently whatever it is, traders are less than impressed. 5:00 a.m. brings the ZEW Economic Sentiment number for both Germany and the Eurozone overall, and combined together they seem incapable of generating more than 10 pips in the 30 minutes after release. Pass. Lots of non-US fed speak today from the UK at 8:00 a.m., Canada at 11:15 a.m., UK again at 1:00 p.m. (and this one is Bailey so keep track of the time and don't let him blow up a good trade), and Australia at 7:30 p.m. Canadian Building Permits drop at 8:30 a.m. but this is one of the reports that doesn't move the Loonie much, if at all. 10:30 a.m. is the Australian Conference Board Leading Index, which has already gained mention once this week as being the stupidest and least effective number we watch, across all currency pairs. We close at 7:30 p.m. with the Australian MI Leading Index, which is held in less esteem than the one from the Conference Board, so pass here as well.
USA Session: We actually have a number or two that stand an excellent chance of seeing the light of day. At 6:00 a.m. the NFIB releases a Small Business Index Number. Since the entire US based trading world is only just now rolling out of bed (on the East Coast, anyway) this one will come and go quietly without even a whimper shown on the charts. There is a "tentative" listing for Trade Balance, a number generated by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, government-speak for "Department Composed Entirely of Non-Essential Employees" so as this one is already carried over from last week, don't expect to see it today either. After that it's all Fed Speak at 8:45 a.m., 11:30 a.m. (Powell, so be aware of this one), 3:25 p.m. and 3:30 p.m.
WEDNESDAY: Asian/London Session: I suspect that the US Govt. Shutdown has caused panic in the hallways of Forex Factory and instead of posting a shortened calendar they instead have loaded up the Asian/London session with gobs of garbage numbers. Or maybe it was just time to flush a bunch of numbers out into the public. Either way we end up with 16 entries and not a single one worth trading, including the Australian red folder NFP (Employment Change and Unemployment Rate) which has posted 5, 6 and 7 pip moves over the last 3 months. Both sides of the session are an absolute dumpster fire. There is non-US Fed Speak set for 4:00 a.m., 11:00 a.m., 11:45 a.m., 3:45 p.m. (Bullock, head of the Australian Fed, so be wary if you're trading the AUD around then), and 5:50 p.m.
USA Session: Yesterday (meaning while I was writing this) CPI showed up as a tentative at 8:30 a.m., along with the Empire State Manufacturing Index number, which we would happily ignore in favor of the CPI. Today, the CPI is off the calendar completely, leaving us with the Empire as our only number at 8:30. It's tied with the Richmond Index as the one traders care about least, but being the only number, it might have an outsized effect on price action. Don't count on it, but don't be completely surprised if it happens. The Fed's release of the Beige Book is also set for today at 2:00 p.m. Nothing we can work with as it isn't a number. And that API Weekly Oil Summary drops today, since Oil is a day late because of the Monday holiday. After that it's all Fed Speak at 9:30 a.m., 12:30 p.m., 1:00 p.m. and 2:30 p.m.
THURSDAY: Asian/London Session: 12:30 a.m. starts us off with the Japanese Tertiary Industry Activity. 3 months ago this one posted 25 pips. The last 2 months were closer to 10-16. Which number shows up today, the above 20 or below 20 pips version? Tune in to find out. But be careful trading it. It's a little unstable. At 2:00 a.m. we get the GBP GDP m/m, and this one has long been a 20+ pip mover, but the last two months struggled to even get to +10. So again, a good long term history of 20+, but recently, not so much. So be careful with this one as well. And you can ignore the other 5 numbers coming out of the UK at the same time. This one lives or dies based on the GDP. After this, it either reports (not numbers) or Euro Trade Balances (ignore), Canadian Housing Starts (sub-20 pip mover from way back), and a bunch of non-US Fed Speak at 9:00 a.m., 10:45 a.m., 12:00 p.m. (Lagarde from the Euro Fed so be aware she's talking right now), 1:30 p.m. (Mackey from the Canadian Fed, so be aware he's talking right now, CAD traders) and 2:30 p.m.
USA Session: They took CPI off from yesterday's calendar in anticipation the shutdown would continue, but left up PPI, Retail Sales and Weekly Unemployment for today (so far, at least). None of those will see daylight if the shutdown continues. We do get the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, the Gold Standard of Manufacturing Index numbers, but it too has been widely ignored for years. But being the only 8:30 a.m. number, again, we could see a lot more activity than normal simply because we have no other options. The National Association of Home Builders releases their monthly Housing Market Index at 10:00 a.m., but I doubt even the lack of any other numbers will get anyone excited about this one. Business Inventories, another government agency number, is a "tentative" meaning we won't see it either. Crude Oil is set for a noon release and this one will actually show up at noon as scheduled. After that, Fed Speak and a lot of it. 3 separate clowns will be speaking at 3 different meetings, all in D.C., at 9:00 a.m., followed by 10:00 a.m., 4:15 p.m.
FRIDAY: Asian/London Session: We lead off with the Eurozone CPI numbers at 5:00 a.m., and if you were planning to get out of bed to trade this one, don't bother. Prior three reports generated +/- 5 pips each month. At 8:30 a.m. we get Canadian Foreign Securities Purchases, which is another one of the lesser Canadian numbers that rarely sees anything above 10 pips. So pass here as well. It's all non-US Fed Speak after that, at 5:35 a.m., 7:00 a.m., 8:45 a.m. (Nagel from the German Buba so be aware if you are trading the EUR right now), and 12:30 p.m.
USA Session: 5 numbers listed for today's session (Building Permits, Housing Starts, Import Prices m/m, Federal Budget Balance, and TIC Long Term Purchases). All are listed as tentative, all are generally ignored by traders when there ISN'T a government shutdown, and none are likely to show up (the last two, Budget Balance and TIC Purchases) are typically late afternoon numbers, so if by some miracle they do show up, it's going to be around 3 p.m., on a Friday afternoon. Plan to pass on all of them. We have one Fed Speak set for 12:15 p.m.
That's it for this week. The word around the campfire is there is zero chance the shutdown will resolve this week because Chuck Schumer (head of the Democrat wing of the US Senate) is terrified by a pending riot (Microsoft keeps trying to change that to Peaceful Protest, but I keep changing it back) planned by Antifa and a variety of other groups, set for Saturday the 18th in the area surrounding the Capital and White House, and he refuses to take any action until all those balloonheads vacate the area. So maybe next week we will get back to normal.
I certainly hope so. See you next week.
Jeff
