The January ISM® Manufacturing PMI® registered 52.6%, rising 4.7 percentage points (pp) from December’s seasonally adjusted reading. This marks the first time the manufacturing sector has expanded in 12 months, following 11 consecutive months of contraction and a neutral reading in February 2025. The New Orders Index also moved into expansion at 57.1%, up 9.7 pp, indicating a sharp rebound in demand momentum. The Production Index strengthened further, increasing 5.2 pp to 55.9%, its highest level since early 2022. The Employment Index remained in contraction at 48.1% but improved 3.3 pp month over month, indicating that workforce reductions persisted, although at a slower rate. The Prices Index registered 59.0%, up 0.5 pp, as raw material costs increased for the 16th consecutive month. Supplier Deliveries slowed further, with the index rising 3.6 pp to 54.4%. Inventories remained in contraction at 47.6%, though the rate of decline moderated slightly.

The ADP National Employment Report® showed that private-sector employment increased by 22,000 jobs in January, reflecting a slow start to the year for overall hiring. Medium-sized firms led the gains with 41,000 new positions, while small establishments were flat and large employers shed 18,000 jobs. Goods-producing industries were little changed, adding just 1,000 jobs, as construction rose by 9,000 but manufacturing continued to weaken with an 8,000-job decline. Within the service sector, education and health services led hiring with a solid increase of 74,000 jobs, while professional and business services (-57,000) and information (-5,000) saw declines; financial activities (+14,000) and leisure and hospitality (+4,000) recorded smaller gains. Regionally, hiring was strongest in the Midwest (+25,000) and Northeast (+17,000), while employment fell in the South (-10,000) and West (-11,000). Pay growth held firm, as wages for job-stayers rose 4.5% year over year and job-changers saw gains of 6.4%, pointing to steady wage pressures amid softer hiring conditions.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that for the week ending January 30, 2026, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 3.5 million barrels to 420.3 million barrels, contributing to a signficant 25.3 million-barrel decline in total commercial petroleum inventories, even as gasoline stocks rose by 0.7 million barrels. Distillate fuel inventories dropped by 5.6 million barrels, while refinery inputs averaged 16.0 million barrels per day (bpd) with utilization at 90.5%, resulting in lower production averages of 9.0 million bpd for gasoline and 4.8 million bpd for distillate fuel. Crude oil imports increased to 6.2 million bpd, and prices moved higher across the board, with West Texas Intermediate crude rising $3.80 to $64.50 per barrel, national retail gasoline climbing $0.014 to $2.867 per gallon, and diesel fuel climbing $0.057 to $3.681 per gallon.