The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for manufactured durable goods rose 5.3% in November to $323.8 billion, reversing October’s 2.1% decline. The increase was driven by transportation equipment, where orders jumped $15.3 billion (+14.7%) to $119.3 billion. Nondefense aircraft and parts led the surge, with orders soaring 97.6% to $35.4 billion, more than offsetting a 14.3% decline in defense capital goods orders to $14.8 billion. Orders excluding transportation increased 0.5%. Shipments edged down 0.2% to $308.7 billion, led by a 1.7% drop in transportation equipment shipments. Unfilled orders rose 1.3% to $1.51 trillion, while inventories increased 0.2% to $591.7 billion. Core capital goods orders (nondefense, excluding aircraft) increased 0.7% to $78.4 billion, and shipments rose 0.4% to $78.1 billion.

In January, The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell 9.7 points to 84.5, its lowest level since 2014, reversing December’s 5.1-point upward revision as consumers’ views of current conditions and the outlook deteriorated broadly. The Present Situation Index dropped 9.9 points to 113.7, signaling weaker assessments of business conditions and the labor market, while the Expectations Index slid 9.5 points to 65.1, well below the 80 level that often signals recession risk. Inflation and price pressures remained elevated, expectations for stock prices and interest rates softened, and big-ticket buying intentions fell, with homebuying and new-car plans weakening even as interest in used vehicles stayed strong. Overall, consumers entered the new year more defensive, prioritizing essentials and value-oriented purchases amid heightened economic uncertainty./p>

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced that it is maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, pausing after a series of three consecutive rate cuts in late 2025, though the decision was not unanimous, with two members dissenting in favor of an additional quarter-point cut. In its policy statement, the Committee noted that economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace, with resilient consumer spending and ongoing business investment, while housing remains weak and job gains subdued. At his post-meeting press conference, Chair Jerome Powell said much of the recent inflation reflects tariff-related price increases, while services inflation continues to cool, adding that after 75 basis points of easing since last fall, policy is well positioned and future moves will be determined on a meeting-by-meeting basis as the data evolves.