The National Association of REALTORS® reported that pending home sales decreased 7.3% in September, with contract signings falling 11.3% year-over-year and monthly declines across all four major U.S. regions, led by the West (-9.2%), South (-8.2%), Midwest (-6.5%) and Northeast (-4.2%). Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun attributed the weakening market to rapidly rising mortgage rates, noting that job growth and income gains continue to support demand but are being offset by affordability pressures. Although mortgage rates may be nearing a peak, rising energy prices and resulting inflationary pressures create uncertainty. Yun added that the limited number of distressed properties is helping keep home prices steady as buyers and sellers wait for more favorable mortgage rates. The Pending Home Sales Index, based on signed contracts for existing homes, serves as a leading indicator of completed sales, which typically close within one to two months.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model estimated real gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the third quarter of 2026 at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.5% as of its October 20 update, down from an initial estimate of 5.0% on July 30. Consumer spending was projected to grow 3.8%, contributing 2.55 percentage points (pp) to GDP growth, while equipment investment was forecast to surge 17.8%, adding 1.00 pp. Nonresidential structures and government spending were projected to increase 6.8% and 2.5%, respectively, while residential investment was expected to decline 2.7%. Net exports subtracted 2.86 pp from growth, reflecting projected import growth of 15.6% and an export decline of 5.9%, while private inventory investment contributed 1.90 pp. The latest estimate was the model’s lowest for the quarter, down from a peak of 6.2% on August 3; final sales of domestic product were projected to grow 1.6%, compared with 4.7% growth in final sales to private domestic purchasers.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that for the week ending October 16, 2026, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 3.1 million barrels to 412.5 million barrels, remaining about 3% below the five-year average. Total commercial petroleum inventories declined by 8.5 million barrels, as gasoline inventories fell by 3.0 million barrels, leaving them 5% below the five-year average, and distillate inventories increased by 1.7 million barrels, sitting about 9% below the five-year average. Refinery inputs averaged 16.6 million barrels per day (b/d) with capacity utilization at 93.4%, resulting in production averages of 9.8 million b/d for gasoline and 5.2 million b/d for distillate fuel. Crude oil imports decreased to 5.8 million b/d for the week, though the four-week average of 6.1 million b/d remains 2.8% above the year-ago level.