Hi Folks.
Here is this week's forecast.
SUNDAY: New Zealand leads us off with a Manufacturing Sales q/q number, which typically generates about 5 pips +/- in activity after release. Pass. Japan has a group of numbers dropping at 7:50 p.m., including a couple of GDP-related numbers, but the last couple of GDP numbers generated less than 15 pips in activity, so not much to work with. Another pass. The rest of the numbers on the calendar are from China and I don't have any idea what they might do or which charts they might do it on.
MONDAY: Asian/London Session: Japan leads off a very short list of reports at 1:00 a.m. with their Economy Watcher's Sentiment number, which historically doesn't even show up as a blip on the economic radar. Several Bank Holidays are listed (Switzerland, France, Germany) so expect volume and volatility to end up on the low side tonight. The evening numbers are just filler and can be ignored.
USA Session: The lack of numbers hits this session as well as at 10:00 a.m. We have that Final Wholesale Inventories number which has failed to move price around for about 180 months in a row. And that's it for the day. Not even any Fed Speak to flesh out the listings.
TUESDAY: Asian/London Session: At 2:00 a.m. we get a group of numbers from the UK and a lone wolf number from Japan. Forget the Japanese number. It has come out early the last 3 months in a row and you cannot rely on a number that doesn't adhere to the strict release schedule. As for the GBP numbers, the Claimant Count Change number is the Red Folder savior of the morning, and it generates 20-30 pips worth of movement after release, making it worthy of a trade. Lately, it has also been posting numbers that are massively distant from the expectation, so that might be helping price go zoom as well. So watch the number closely and if it misses by thousands, get ready for a trade. The rest of the numbers in both morning and evening sessions can be ignored, except for the Japanese PPI at 7:50. The USDJPY has moved 20-30 pips after this one drops for the last few months so it might be worth a gamble, and given the lack of good trades during this session this week, it may turn out to be a Hall of Fame trade by comparison.
USA Session: Another stellar session, with the NFIB Small Business Index coming out at 6:00 a.m. (USA is still asleep, so pass) and the API Oil Bulletin at 4:30 (after the Oil market closes, so Pass as well). And that's it.
WEDNESDAY: Asian/London Session: A dumpster fire from start to finish. GBP leads off with a 10 year Bond Auction labeled as "Tentative". No set time = no trade. Pass. Canadian Building Permits at 8:30 a.m. One of the few Canadian reports that doesn't do much at all to move the USDCAD around any. Pass. GBP reappears at 7:01 p.m. with the RICS House Price Balance. The GBP is asleep by now, so Pass again. Japan's BSI Manufacturing Index at 7:50 and Australia's MI Inflation Expectations number at 9:00 p.m. can both be safely ignored.
USA Session: CPI makes another appearance at 8:30 a.m. and honestly, this is probably the first really decent tradeable number to show on either of the sessions so far this week. I've already said everything I can think of about CPI in previous Forecasts, so just be ready to watch price move a lot on the USD charts (and Indices) both at 8:30 when the number drops and at 9:30 when the Indices officially open for business. Crude Oil at 10:30, 10 year Bond Auction at 1:01 p.m. and the Federal Budget Balance number at 2:00 p.m. If you trade Oil or Bonds you probably already knew that, and the Budget number has historically not done much. That may change as soon as the outcome of the Big Beautiful Bill becomes known. But for today I would not expect much.
THURSDAY: Asian/London Session: At 2:00 a.m. the Brits release a carload of numbers, but GDP is the biggie (another solo Red Folder Report) and while the March release was met with yawns, the April and May numbers generated north of 30 pips each, so this one is worthy of it's Red Folderness. As for the rest of the numbers, morning and evening, nothing stands out as even being worth a mention.
USA Session: 8:30 brings us the PPI in its various iterations. Everything I've said previously about the PPI still stands. It's a lesser number to the CPI and coming out a day later than its big brother, typically fails to move price around in massive chunks. But it can spur on a 20-30 pip move, especially if the CPI misses some the day before and now the PPI also posts a miss (in either direction). So pay attention to any gap between Expected and Actual numbers and if price starts moving in one direction, consider jumping on the train and grabbing a few pips. NatGas at 10:30 and another Bond Auction (30 year) at 1:01 rounds out the day.
FRIDAY: Asian/London Session: At 12:30 a.m. the Japanese release a pair of numbers: Revised Industrial Production and Tertiary Industry Activity. As standalone numbers (which is how they are normally released) you are hard pressed to squeeze 20 pips out of either of them. But as a combination, particularly in a week where there really hasn't been much to hang your hat on trading this session, it could be that they outperform their individual averages by at least a little and if so, this could be the start of a 20+ pip move on the USDJPY. So maybe. Keep an eye on the numbers if you are a Yen trader. The rest of the Euro and GBP numbers are deserving of their Yellow Folder status as they typically fail to impress. There is a trio of CAD numbers dropping at 8:30 a.m. and the same sort of analysis applies as was used on the Yen above. Alone none of them impress, but as a group, particularly on a Friday that closes out an otherwise miserable week for news during this session, it might inspire traders to use this group of numbers as the catalyst for one last big CAD push before the weekend. Probably not, but if you're trading anyway, keep an eye on it.
USA Session: 10:00 = Preliminary UofM Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations numbers. Same as with the Yen and CAD. This has not exactly been a barn burner of a week, trading news wise (yes we had CPI/PPI, but nothing else of note). So maybe this is the American traders last hurrah before the weekend gets here. And the market does give slightly more credence to the Preliminary UofM numbers, which these are, so again, maybe. If you absolutely positively have to be trading at 10:00 a.m. on a Friday, these two numbers might reward your dedication with at least a little bump in the USD charts.
See you back here next week.
Jeff
