Hi Folks.
Here is this week's forecast.
SUNDAY: I hope you guys are actually reading the Sunday comments and not just assuming Sunday should be called SuckDay because of all the lousy reports that pop up each week, because this week we actually have something possibly worth watching. At 7:50 p.m. my time the Japanese release their quarterly Capital Spending number, and of the last 3 times this number dropped, 21 pips was the smallest response on the USDJPY. 30+ pips is more common. And what's also a common occurrence on the UJ after this report drops is the next 1H candle is generally around 50 +/- pips in size. Since the number comes out at the end of the hour, and lately has been missing the expectation significantly, the market is actually reacting over a longer period of time, even on Sunday nights. So watch this one if you like big pip gains. The rest of the evening is a dumpster fire, so after the fireworks die down from the Japanese number, call it a night and get ready for Monday.
MONDAY: Asian/London Session: After a sort of hot start to the week last night, we drop back into the pile of hot garbage that makes up the Monday calendar. There are those final PMI numbers coming out from all over (Spain 3:15, Switzerland 3:30; Italy 3:45; France 3:50; Germany 3:55; Euro Union 4:00; Great Britain 4:30; Canada 9:30;) so watch for any small trends that might develop. It's a huge calendar in terms of entries but really there is nothing on today's page, morning or evening, that really stands out as a historically likely price mover.
USA Session: Final manufacturing PMI at 9:45 (which no one cares about) and the ISM Manufacturing PMI (along with PMI Prices and Construction Spending) which does on occasion move US based charts around some. After that it's just Fed Speak at 10:15, 12:45, and 1:00 p.m., although the 1:00 p.m. entry is Powell delivering the opening remark at some Fed Anniversary party, and it does not look like audience questions are on the agenda, so this one will likely come and go with a whimper at best.
TUESDAY: Asian/London Session: Tuesday comes out of the gate fast with the Swiss CPI m/m number. It doesn't have the impact of the US CPI, but over the last 3 months has posted 18, 37 and 22 pips in the 30 minutes after the number drops. That's enough to make it worth watching. Ueda from the BOJ is on tap to speak at some point, but as a "Tentative" all it can do is screw trades up for us, so be aware it's out there. FF has listed the Euro Flash CPI numbers as Beige Folder. Of the previous 3 numbers, the two furthest out didn't even reach 20 pips in price movement over the hour after release, but last month saw a 37 pip jump (although there were other EU reports dropping at the same time so this one may or may not have contributed to the move). Maybe. I wouldn't get out of bed early to watch it, but if you're already awake...why not. The rest of the numbers can be safely ignored, until 9:30 and the Aussie GDP q/q. Another Red Folder report, but another Red Folder report that is hard pressed to generate more than 10 pips in the half hour after the number drops. Just not worth the risk of a trade.
USA Session: JOLTS Job Openings and Factory Orders at 10:00. Normally not a great combination of numbers to inspire price action, but the previous 2 JOLTS numbers put up 25+ pip moves, so once again, maybe. Since the Fed is once again pivoting away from actual inflation numbers in favor of using fantasy "what if" numbers, employment numbers may once again begin reigning supreme and start pushing price around some. So probably worth a shot. That RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism report is a Tentative listing, as usual, so not much we can do with it, and honestly, when it does come out you'd never know it from concurrent price action, so it's an easy Pass. Same with the Wards Vehicle Sales number. Fed Speak at 12:45 and 3:30, and that API report comes out at 4:30 after the Oil market is closed.
WEDNESDAY: Asian/London Session: The only thing noteworthy (barely) in this session is the systematic release of the Final Services PMI numbers (Spain 3:15; Italy 3:45; France 3:50; Germany 3:55; Euro Union 4:00; Great Britain 4:30;). watch for a trend and pass on the lot if you don't see one developing. At 9:45 Canada has their Rate Announcement, and is expected to cut rates yet again from 2.75% down to 2.50%, with a presser set for 10:30. This will have a likely huge impact on the USDCAD so get ready, all you CAD traders. The rest of the calendar (the evening numbers) aren't worthy of a mention.
USA Session: The ADP number leads off at 8:15 (which means Friday is NFP Day). It's been a while since the ADP has done much to price action, and the last 2 months showed under 15 pips in the 15 minutes after release, so it's still not having any impact worth taking. Fed Speak at 8:30, Final Services PMI at 9:45 (ignore) and ISM Services PMI at 10:00 (do not ignore, although it rarely has the same or similar impact as the ISM Manufacturing PMI), Crude Oil at 10:30 and the Beige Book is released at 2:00 p.m. Interesting reading and some bigger traders might place a trade off whatever they glean from reading it, but there isn't much we can plan on doing with the data ourselves.
THURSDAY: Asian/London Session: There is nothing in the early part of this session that has any sort of reliable history of decent price moves based on the numbers set for release. FF has the 4:30 a.m. GBP Construction PMI number as a Beige Folder, and were kind enough to not list any previous data from earlier releases, so we are flying blind on this one. But GB Housing numbers tend to have the same sort of non-impact on the markets that the US Housing numbers do, so don't get too excited over this one. At 8:15, however, the EU releases their Rate Cut decision and much like the Canadians from earlier in the week, are expected to cut an additional quarter point, taking them from 2.40% down to 2.15%. A presser is also set for 8:45 a.m. This is the main event for this session today. Nothing else is set that rises to this level.
USA Session: Weekly Unemployment Claims at 8:30 along with a bunch of other stuff of lesser importance (although Trade ImBalance is likely to start being a big deal now that that number is beginning to move towards Zero...I might even have to drop the "Im" from the name at some point). Last week the UC number came in a little hotter than expected at 240k, If it lands anywhere from 225 to 232 as is fairly typical it likely won't have much impact. NatGas at 10:30 and some Fed Speak at 12:00 and 1:30 p.m.
FRIDAY: Asian/London Session: Garbage Yellow Folder numbers as far as the eye can see. Even the Retail Sales and GDP numbers aren't likely to impress anyone enough to place a trade. But the CADs have their version of the NFP at 8:30 and it will likely do for the CAD what the US NFP does for the USD.
USA Session: NFP. What else do I need to say? One of the three High Holy Days of trading. We close the session with Consumer Credit at 3:00 p.m. I won't be around trading that one, thankfully, and neither should you.
Have a great week trading and I'll see you back here next week.
Jeff
