Hi Folks.
Pay attention to this week's schedule. We have a surprise coming on Thursday during the US session.
Here is the forecast.
SUNDAY: Typical start to the week on Sunday evening. Japanese report at 7:50, Australia/New Zealand each have one at 9:00 p.m. with Australia following up with a second number at 9:30 p.m., and none of them likely to move the needle even slightly.
MONDAY: Asian/London Session: A lot of numbers, particularly during the overnight/early morning session, but none of them have enough of a history of decent price action to get me all that excited about trading. The only one even slightly worth mentioning is the GBP Final GDP at 2:00 a.m. Linked up with about a half dozen other reports, this one fired off a 28 pip move last time it was released, and it too was accompanied by a lot of other (similar) numbers. So maybe it will be worth a look. The rest of the early stuff isn't all that exciting. Lagarde from the ECB speaks at 1:30 p.m. my time and she is the Euro version of Powell, so at least make a note that she's speaking if you are trading the EUR during the afternoon. The same lack of enthusiasm is present with the evening numbers, except the Japanese Tankan Manufacturing Index numbers, which has been known to post some 30 and 40 pip moves on the USDJPY after release. So keep an eye on that one as well. The rest can be safely dismissed.
USA Session: The Chicago PMI comes out at 9:45 a.m., followed by Fed Speak at 10:00 and 1:00. The functional equivalent of saying No News on Monday.
TUESDAY: Asian/London Session: A ton of numbers greets us this morning, divided into two categories: Final Manufacturing PMI and nothing worth watching. The PMI numbers drop at 3:15 a.m. (Spain); 3:30 a.m. (Switzerland); 3:45 a.m. (Italy); 3:50 a.m. (France); 3:55 a.m. (Germany); 4:00 a.m. (Euro Union); and 4:30 a.m. (Great Britain); No Canadian number this time because Canada is celebrating Canada Day and the banks are closed. Usual rules apply here. None of these numbers tend to do much on their own but if they all start coming in bad or good, a small trend might develop so watch out for that. Of the rest of the morning numbers, FF has listed the EU's CPI Flash Estimates as Beige Folder, but trade only if you like sweating out 13-14 point moves in the hour after release. Otherwise, hard pass. At 9:30 a.m., be aware that all the big names in Central Banking (Lagarde, Bailey, Ueda and Powell) are speaking at some ECB event in Sintra (wherever that is...okay, I just Googled it. It's near Lisbon, Portugal. Sorry for my stereotypical piss poor American Geography skills). This is Fed Speak to the 10th power, but still untradeable, so just be aware one or more of these clowns could derail an otherwise perfectly good trade right after 9:30 a.m. and probably lasting a couple of hours afterwards. The evening numbers can be ignored, even the Australian Retail Sales number at 9:30 p.m., which is another FF Beige Folder number that fails to live up to it's billing...last month it posted a huge miss and only mustered up a 16 pip move over the next 30 minutes. Not worth the risk.
USA Session: As noted just above, 9:30 brings us the Festival of Fed Speak, which should be like the proverbial wet blanket thrown over traders hopes and dreams for some decent tradeable price action. At 9:45 we get the Final Manufacturing PMI, which is a nothingburger, but at 10:00 we get the ISM Manufacturing PMI along with JOLTS Job Openings, and that combination has typically been worth trading as together they give us a lot more to work with than when they come out alone. But the Fedspeakapalooza going on at the same time might mute trader enthusiasm, at least this month. A couple of tentative numbers not worth worrying over and that API Oil report at 4:30 (but a day before the Oil number drops instead of the day after, so Oil traders pay attention for tomorrow's trades).
WEDNESDAY: Asian/London Session: Truly a waste of a day in terms of news-based trading opportunities, as there are just a handful of reports scattered across both morning and evening session and none of them will do much by way of price action on any of the charts.
USA Session: Challenger Job Cuts drops at 7:30 a.m. before the markets open, so ignore it. The market will. 8:15 brings us the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change number, and this one has been in the toilet for a few months now, posting numbers like 62k and 37k, while the actual NFP has been posting some pretty big numbers during the same time frame (177k, 139k). Who is more accurate? I've always leaned towards the ADP as they are less susceptible to undue influence. But the Market loves them some NFP numbers, and you know the rule: Trade what you see, not what you think you should be seeing. So if the market is ignoring the ADP, you should as well. At least until further notice. After that, Crude Oil at 10:30. And that's the end of the day for the US of A.
THURSDAY: Asian/London Session: 2:30 starts us off with the Swiss CPI m/m, a red folder courtesy of FF. Over the last 3 months the pip count on this one dropped from 35 to 20 to 14, which is going the wrong direction for me to get interested. But since we saw 2 out of the last 3 months break 20 pips, at least keep an eye on it if you are awake and trading right before London Open. After that we get the Final Services PMI numbers: 3:15 a.m. (Spain); 3:45 a.m. (Italy); 3:50 a.m. (France); 3:55 a.m. (Germany); 4:00 a.m. (EU); 4:30 a.m. (Great Britain); Same rules as earlier this week. Watch for a trend to develop and trade accordingly. Nothing to do during the evening session.
USA Session: Remember when I mentioned some weirdness happening on Thursday? We lead off with the weird: 8:30 a.m. is Non-Farm Payroll and the related tagalong numbers. It's the NFP, a Friday report for as long as I have been trading Forex and related charts. I'm running out of new things to say about it. It's a High H9oly Day of trading and should be treated as such. At 9:45 we get the Final Services PMI number which no one cares about, and at 10:00 we get the ISM Services PMI which traders do care about (we also get Factory Orders, but that one is one everyone's Pay No Mind List as well). NatGas at 10:30 and Fed Speak at 11:00 closes out our trading day.
FRIDAY: Asian/London Session: It's all junk today. Don't expect much and you won't be disappointed.
USA Session: Closed for the July 4th holiday, or as it has been recently called, the Original No Kings Day. That only makes sense if you follow American politics, and why would you want to do a thing like that?
Enjoy the long weekend, my fellow Americanos, and I'll see you back here next week.
Jeff
