Hello Friend
Well it's nice when a plan comes together. Yesterday's focus on my Kerry Lee micro systems highlighted a 12/1>9/2 winner (30p R4) to add to the coffers. That angle is worth keeping onside in the months ahead.
Anyway, today there are no 'tips' (3m+ handicap chases) or micro system qualifiers on the free post. So I have repeated my 'tip' from today's Members' post...
*
I may as well curse my 'tip' from the Members' post by sharing it with you. These 'tips' are my own subjective views of any qualifiers against my various trainer angles.
The one below has a fascinating profile. He either isn't very good, needs more time, or the combination of a step up in trip by 4f + handicap debut will see him bolt up. Time will tell...
From the members' post... the starting point being this horse qualifies against one of my McCain angles for Bangor...
2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/'tips')
Test/trial : 'NOTES' (01/09/17-) (31/176, +110.75) (1 point win bets)
NOTES ('tips')
3.20 Bangor - Tailor Tom - 7/1 (gen)
This one has more than enough going for him to have a play at 7/1. I wouldn't want much shorter given the questions he has to answer but any support would be a positive sign. He arrives here after three runs in maiden hurdles over 20f, having looked badly outpaced each time. He should be fit and McCain continues in fine form... 9/30,16p in the last 14 days. His underlying stats at the track are decent also. 19/59,32p, +40 all runners here in the last year. Trainer/jockey 12/35,19p,+35 here in the last year.
The horse... well he is having the fourth rules run of his life, makes handicap hurdle debut and steps up in trip by 4f. He ticks every box for 'the magic formula' including both the trainer being in form and this being a poor race on paper. Very winnable. My bullishness is tempered slightly by the fact that McCain isn't prolific with handicap hurdle debutants - 4/69,15p since the start of 2015. Although those at Bangor are 1/4,3p in that time. So, certainly no reason to be put off. The horse runs as if he will relish this step up in distance. He plugged on well in his 3m point in Ireland and does shape like a dour stayer who will relish conditions. There is only one way to find out! He could have stacks in hand here and gets to run against a mediocre bunch.
There are no unexposed hot pots in this with 'sexy' profiles to be scared of. If he handles the ground and stays he should be in the mix. All evidence suggests he will do both and with any luck he has at least 10lb in hand! He is entered 3 times in the next week after today- maybe they expect him to bolt up, turn him out again quickly under a penalty, and bolt up again. All the signs are there. A 'ratings pointer' would have boosted confidence but he hasn't been running in conditions where he can show his true ability so nothing to get too hung up on at the price. Fingers crossed. This is one of those bets that strikes me as going one of two ways.
*
That's the lot for today, good luck,
Josh
| 