Hello Friend
It's been a quiet start to the year from me with the 'tips' on the free posts but that should step up a tad this weekend.
My friends at SP2A started the year with a bang, a 14/1 winner on New Years Day, the only tip. That paid the subs for many of those who re-subscribed from the first ever exclusive 3 month trial we did. I think 90+ have decided to stay for longer and if that isn't a vote of confidence I don't know what is. They are the best all round tipping service I have come across.
Ian (owner of SP2A) has been very ill in recent days but is now on the mend. That has delayed me pushing the new 3 month trial period but we plan to open the doors again in the coming days. If you want to follow a race adviser service you must give them a go. It's an educational experience also.
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My own tipping on the free posts has been doing ok. It isn't up to Ian and his team's standards but I do like the challenge of trying to be as good as them! One day :)
The record of 'the tips' for the year was ok...
2016: +75 points ; 2017: 18/185, +79.5 points; 2018: 0/0
I'm on a losing run of 25 points or so, with some frustrating 2nds. But when you have a win SR of 10% that happens, regularly. I am yet to break the 100 point mark in a year and that's something i'll be trying hard to do in 2018. I'd also like to be more consistent and drive up that winning SR into the 15-20% region, but then again profit/ROI has always been my main focus. I'll have a ponder on what I can improve on. You can always improve.
Onto today...
Other than 'my tips', the free posts have a few micro systems/angles that I have researched in months gone by. Some are in 'testing', some are more solid than others. I need to do a proper recap on 2017 but given there is a potential Kerry Lee qualifier today (2.20 Lud, Tree of Liberty...IF 12/1 or shorter SP) I thought i'd touch on her today...
We have been following a couple of angles for Kerry Lee last year and for most of 2016...
Micro 1
Rules: Handicaps / Chases / Irish Bred / 12/1 or shorter SP / 2015-
Results: 134 bets / 33 wins / 55 places / 25% sr / +78 SP / +98 BFSP / AE 1.35
In 2017, with all qualifiers posted on the free posts
47 bets /12 wins / 21 places / +35 BFSP
If you'd have taken 'opening show' odds, rather than SP, 10 mins or so before the off, that would have been worth +31 points more on top of the +78. No doubt morning prices may have been worth a bit more. Those qualifiers sent off bigger than 12/1 SP are now 0/31,3p in the period.
This is a decent angle that still continues to churn out the winners. If nothing else it's a decent starting point for bets. We shall see how she gets on in 2018!
Micro 2
Rules: Handicaps / Chases / Not 1-3 runs in previous 90 days / 12/1 or shorter SP / 2015-
Results: 47 bets / 11 wins / 19 places / 23% sr / +24 SP / +31 BFSP / AE 1.21
2017: 3/17,7p, +8
Originally this angle included research that covered her father's runners, before she took over the day to day training. The Lee's were very good with chasers that were either running fresh (0 runs in prev 90 days) or were what i would call 'hard fit', so 4+ runs in the previous 90 days. Having looked at the stats it appears Kerry may have changed the approach slightly and this angle may now be irrelevant. They are still adept at readying them after a break but in the last two years those with 2 or 3 runs in the previous 90 days may be the place to focus - so, they are fit, but still fresh enough! :)
So, those with 2 or 3 runs only in the previous 90 days are:
87 bets / 22 wins / 39 places / 25% sr / +46 SP / +63 BFSP / AE 1.4
I have that angle saved and will track it live. Micro 1 should keep chugging along and of course there is some cross over with all the angles. As with Tree of Liberty above, he hits both micros 1+2, although the market will guide as to whether he qualifiers or not. Currently on the boundary, he was 14s+ before a NR, and may drift out again.
Those qualifiers are worth keeping an eye on and should point you to a few winners in the coming months.
You can find all of that on today's free post, HERE>>>
Best,
Josh
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