Hello Friend

Given how my flat season is petering out, I thought i'd give my favourite race type a bash. Those thoughts follow. But first...

Before I get onto that, for one final time for the foreseeable future in emails, if you're looking for a flat / winter all-weather tipster, Gary at Always Back Winners is your man. 

Obviously I emailed you a dud on Monday. Typical. 

Thankfully for his subscribers and the 50 or so of you who've signed up via my recommendation, his one pick yesterday, Not On Your Nellie, won cosily at 16/1. 

That takes his 1 point EW total to +124 points this flat season. Impressive. I do wish I was that good in Flat handicaps, but as yet i'm not. 

Those on the 1k-10k challenge, betting 1.25% of the bank (so first bet £12.50 EW) have now turned that 1k into £3185.52

It's been some week and does just show how quickly you can propel into big profits - x3 winners in recent days at 16s, 25s and 16s. His season was looking great before this spurt, even better now. 

Of course he's due a few losers now but he'll be sharpening up his winter all-weather eyes also. 

As has been the case for over 12 months now, you can try his excellent service for one whole month, for just £5. 

He pulled in +90 points last flat season, +67 points in the winter AW season - And now +124 points this Flat season. That's real profit, to 8am prices. I've had access all that time and am not complaining :) 

+281 points, or +£2810 to £10 EW bets isn't a bad return since the start of last Flat season, averaging 5-7 bets per week. 

Not to curse him but for a few months now I've had no hesitation in saying he's the best daily flat/AWhandicap tipster I've personally seen, especially in his C3-6 specialism. 

Right, I think i've banged that drum enough so i'll stop beating it for now. :) 

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Onto today... and my tips...

4.30 Listowel 

#1 - Spyglass Hill - 1 point win - 8/1 (bet365) 7/1 (gen)

#2 - Cap York - 1 point win - 22/1 (SkyB/BV) 20/1 (gen)

as of 09.55, when posted on blog...

Spyglass Hill...

I think there's just enough juice in his price and if you're patient and have missed 7s gen, you can hopefully get matched at around 15/2 at some point on the machine. Currently 8.6 as I type but only 22k in the pot. Obviously the trainer/jockey are always a positive in a chase and HDBs are going well. HDB/Rachael are 7/19, 9p in the last 30 days, 3/11, 4p last 14.  He's also 1/7 in the race, winning for the first time last year. He knows what's needed for this.

The horse... well they'd have been doing the rain dance and its arrived. I'm convinced this one has a decent muddy staying pot in him. His novice chase form is very good and to me indicates this mark is very workable, when it all clicks in a handicap. He's unexposed over fences and just gallops.

There is a niggle over his jumping sometimes but in part inexperience and there's no better team to sort that out at home. In general he's been fine. He may have beaten Carefully Selected at Naas over 24f, staying on, but just brushed through the top of the last. His 2nd in the race before that was decent, 12 other winners from it since. He hacked up at Gowran in proper heavy over 20f, and that's some climb to the line. Milan Native was 2nd there and would go on to win the Kim Muir. Galway went all wrong - that standing start didn't help him I don't think but he was travelling well on the outside, mid pack - he smacked 6 out- Rb tried to keep him going and even jumped the next, but he clearly wasn't going as well as she liked and had no chance- that would suggest he didn't hurt himself, they may have pencilled this in and worked backwards. IF he jumps, which the slower ground/pace may help, he should be going close here. He should race mid div, just behind the leaders hopefully. Unless, with his jumping, they decide to throw him up there/wide to have a clean look. I'll trust in RB. Of those that were single figures he was the most interesting now the rain has come, and looked overpriced even at 7s. They should win a big handicap chase pot with him at some point, hopefully today.

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Cap York...

He looked overpriced here and worth a go now the rain has come. Meade is 1/15,4p in the race and his have been running well enough. He does well at the track, as he does with Sean, 3/11, 6p in the last 5 years.

He's another who's unexposed enough over fences and three starts ago it clicked - he is a bit of a character (hence the blinkers) but they booted him more prominent that day which he seemed to enjoy. He likes the mud and just gallops. He may well be the strongest stayer in this race, in proper soft. This horse was deemed good enough to run in 2019s Albert Bartlett, finishing a respectable 9th. He chased home Battleoverdoyen in a Galway Beginners chase in Oct 2019.  He has a touch of staying class for a handicapper I think. He won that Naas race well enough come the line and he could well be an Irish National type, if that came up soft. His last two runs have been on quick enough ground. He just couldn't keep up at Galway, esp after the standing start/early pace they went. But, he kept tabs, jumped well and stayed on into 8th, although well beat. Still, in this ground, i'm hoping Sean is aggressive and he can lob along near the front, in a comfort zone. We will have some fun if he does.

Of the bigger priced ones he looked the most interesting. Maybe it hasn't been ground/tactics the last twice, and the effect of the blinkers has worn off. But at around 22s i'll chance him. These are his conditions and if running up to the form of that Naas win, is no 22s shot. That's insulting.

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I didn't really like much else at the prices. Those returning after 91+ days off are 0/55,9p in this and in soft ground, will be hard work. I didn't think Plan of Attack was overpriced as I also think there may be better sloggers in here now the rain has come. I could have him wrong and you'd think he's a1. He should run well and could take it. Of the three HDB i preferred Spyglass. Doctor Duffy needs more for me, in the context of price, and in these conditions. I thought Cabaret Queen is open to attack from something with more in hand, and that chase she hacked up in last Oct is now 0/55,7p. Some promise LTO though, and she does have the form to be bang there. I wouldn't be shocked for a big run, but I did think something may be better treated now over fences. Solid though. I can leave Ravenhill, now 10, and on seasonal return. He's got to prove it from this mark and i'm not sure if he just got away with the ground at Cheltenham, given the pace etc. Anyway even though it's Gordon, at 8s I could leave.

Internal Transfer is interesting but i'm not sure his 4th in this last year suggested he should leap forward to the number 1 spot - this has been the plan no doubt and I can see why he has his supporters. Lightly raced in recent years and I wasn't convinced he wanted a slog over this trip. I could be wrong but he needs more than last year and I wasn't sure where that would come from. But, of those double figures he's more interesting than many.

Mortal - again, yet to be convinced he wants a 3m soft ground slog, but unproven. Joseph O'Brien is a class trainer obviously, but he's yet to master the staying chase division - in all Class 1 handicap chases... 3/78, 15p, over 3m... 0/27, 2p. 1/61, 8p in all 3m+ hncp chases, 0/46, 5p C1/2. In saying that, of course he did win The Plate (nearly 2m7f) this year, and may well have worked out how to train them/what's needed - or now has more of that type of horse in the yard. Still, 3m+ is a question. Still, the horse may improve for conditions and arrives fit and in form. But at 11s or so, there wasn't enough for me, esp as he's usually held up right out the back.

Joseph and Oakley Brown worth noting when teaming up though... 10/30, 14p, +34 in the last year.

I had stamina questions over Blazer and Robin Des Foret in these conditions, as I did Kupatana - maybe 18s is big for a HDB chaser in a race like this - I wasn't sure she wanted a 24f soft ground slog - BUT that's more an 'unknown' that you weigh up against price. Still, I thought this was deep enough for her. We shall see. Rachael will have had the choice I assume.

I didn't think the rest would be good enough / have plenty of questions in conditions. If this were Good, i'd have been more interested in The West Awakes - but now the rain has come i've a going/stamina concern. He could run well though. I suppose Demi Plie's course record would make her more interesting than some. Maybe 133 still underestimates her and she is unexposed over fences but this is the deepest chase she's run in by some way 24f is fine, whether it is in soft+, is the question. 22s is interesting though and maybe of the other 20s+ shots, she's most interesting.

Pace...

Kupatana / Demi Plie may be up there, Doctor Duffy not far away (but he can take some riding), Cabaret Queen should be up there as may Plan of Attack.

If they ride Cap York as per his win three starts back, I hope he's up there. I don't think RB will want Spyglass Hill too far back either, but when its soft around here the more patiently ridden types can do well. Hopefully they're both in a 'no excuses' position.

GL with any bets.

Josh 

p.s don't miss your chance to join many other happy RTP readers who've put their trust in Gary this flat season. You can sign up HERE>>>