Hello Friend
I hope you had a great weekend. There's plenty in today's post to mull over, much of which i've repeated below. Including a guest tip.
My own flat efforts continue to be woefully inadequate and having had a wonderful first half to the flat season, the wheels have well and truly come off. Some of it is variance, but an element of it will be my approach, so plenty for me to ponder again.
My Ayr Gold Cup 'walk through' video appeared to go down ok, around 300 have watched it (or some of it). I'll do it again this week and try to make it shorter, and try and whizz through a few more horses. But if you did watch it with any luck you took positives from it/it helped in some way.
Onto today, and something for everyone.
There's an 8/1 guest tip and then a quick look at three trainers - Tom Lacey, David Brown and Amy Murphy, with some stats pointers of interest that may be useful both today, and moving forwards.
Let's crack on...
A guest tip from the man in form, Gary at ABW. A decent few days for any followers (i'm one, thankfully), with True Blue Moon 14s and Magical Spirit 25s piling up the profit... his Flat turf season's stats now... 129 bets / 19 wins / 57 wins|places/ 44% EW SR/ +106 points (1 pt EW) 1k to 10k challenge, starting with 1.25% of bank (£12.50 EW) now up to £2880As always, you can get your exclusive £5 trial month HERE>>>
The 40 odd who've signed up and stayed in recent months are happy enough i'd say.
As one reader, Doug, just posted...
I have to say Josh, signed up to ABW a few weeks back on your recommendation and have been very happy so far! Nearly got the f/c in the Silver Cup too. Thanks very much! (you can join Doug HERE>>>)
Today's tip...
3.25 Ham- Auckland Lodge - 8/1 - EW
"A couple we have backed of old going H2H with Liam Bailey’s Quanah and Jenny Candlish’s Show Palace. Tim Easterby’s Wades Magic, makes up the first three in the current market and with all of them under wipes yer face prices – looking at one who could just get in amongst these, with neither any serious C5 form?
Ben Haslam’s AUCKLAND LODGE has had couple of runs in C3’s at Ponty, where the stiff finish mirrors todays track. Last season she won three times as a 2yo with best form shown this time. Whilst she’s closely matched with Ventura Flame & Fanzone on 2yo running, the former looks to like a ‘quag’, and the latter is on first run since a 2nd quick stable switch.
Her July Run at Ponty over today’s trip saw her get squeezed for room, and her last was at a good stretch in a C3 at the same track where she led for a good way.
Back at 5f, she should be more comfortable and looking at the pace, likely she will be asked to make all.
Andrew Mullen is doing the steering on the trainers sole runner and there’s a best 10/1 with bet365 and regulation THREE slots for a half stakes opening selection for the week"
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Trainer stats of interest...I was flicking through Geegeez and a couple of trainer pointers/snippets caught the eye - maybe useful today, but certainly worth noting... A jumps trainer...Tom Lacey He runs Red Nika in the 3.15 Warwick - you'd think he will prove chucked in at some point here, handicap debut, stepping up in trip etc - whether he's sharp enough on his seasonal return is the question I suppose. Anyway, one for you to ponder around 5s - the stats/pointers of interest... - His handicap debutants in the last year: 3/12, 7p (-1.25 SP)
- A man in form, the last 30 days: 6/15, 9p, +12
- He likes Warwick, 5 year record all runners: 9/35, 22p, +29
- Jockey Jonny Burke riding like a man possessed at the moment, last 30 days: 9/24, 13p, +25
- The trainer/jockey combo in the last year: 10/19, 13p, +17 (9/13,11p in handicaps)
Plenty of decent pointers there to consider both today and moving forward - certainly a yard, and a jockey, worth keeping an eye on in the coming weeks. A flat trainer...
David Brown I'm not sure if he's an 'under the radar' flat trainer but clearly knows the time of day. In the last 2 years his flat handicappers are 12/52, 24p +36 SP. They're solid enough for a 'small' yard and they are in form , 3/8 in the last 14 days. He runs Cruising in the 5.05 at Hamilton - I had a brief look - he's in form, just a question of whether the handicapper has him, but they are 'doing something different' in stepping up 1f in trip at a stiff track. That may unlock more. I haven't looked in depth, nor at the race although the market would suggest its open and there's no steamer as yet. But, the trainer stats caught the eye, and they've plenty entered in the next few days, so they all could be worth a closer look, esp given their recent form. * And... a dual-purpose trainer... Amy MurphyIt would be rude of me not to mention Amy given her stunning form across all codes at the moment, including working her magic getting Really Super back in the winners' enclosure (it's likely we will be running her in The Old Roan, provided it isn't worse than good to soft - tilting at windmills but why not! Usually a small field - may be different this year I suppose but exciting nonetheless!) Anyway... all Amy's runners in the last 30 days... 9/39, 16p, +48 SPWhen Jack's on her jumpers (and he is stable jockey).... in the last 2 years (all national hunt runners) : 140 rides / 27 wins / 55 places (inc wins) / +40 SP In jumps handicaps, together they're... 16/71, 28p, +67 SP
They team up with Mercian Prince in the 2.45 Warwick, and he's looking well handicapped if it clicks again over fences - back down into a C3 from that C2 LTO, CP back on - if he could build on that run two starts ago, he may well add to those stats above. We shall see. Another for you to take a closer look at if you wish. Anyway, three trainers, three sets of pointers, for today and moving forwards, to absorb/ ponder / use however you please. GL with any bets, Josh p.s Try Geegeez Gold for 1 full month for just £1 HERE >>>p.p.s or, Register for free, and get free daily access to racecards/tools HERE >>>
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