Hello Friend
Below you can find some pointers for Richard's Hughes' runners at Chelmsford. It's a quiet couple of days on the summer jumping front and there wasn't much else Flat stats wise within the members' club. I always like to try and flag something useful every day as such i've dug out something interesting to read that may be useful moving forwards. If you like such stats and angles of course.
And well, if the colours above don't excite you, with matching scarves, ties, mouse mats etc, I'm not sure much else will! :) Hopefully they're easy to spot track-side moving forwards, in a big field Cheltenham Festival handicap, or as they're storming up the Royal Ascot straight. You have to dream!
There are around 160 of you on the 'tell me more' email list and I will be telling you more later today, before we accept applications for membership from Thursday onwards. We've done a great deal with Amy Murphy ensuring a rather unique offer /experience. She really is superb. It is all systems go for the inaugural RTP Syndicate agreement to start on September 1st. It's going to be a long journey ahead and while we may not get to Midlam Park's level of syndicate dominance, or Nick Bradley's, this is just the beginning. It's very exciting and I'm determined to make it the best value syndicate experience in the game.
Anyway, I'm only going to bang that drum to those of you interested, hence the separate email list, which you can join HERE >>> (more info will be sent around 12.30 today to that list)
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On Saturday I emailed you my 'Saturday TV Trends & Trainers' post which I pull together every week for members. That was as good as it gets in terms of flagging winners and providing a useful 'way in' and 'starting point' - a handful of you emailed back saying it helped you land on a winner or two, which is what it's all about.
Trainers are creatures of habit, especially when targeting big races. Forever in this game we're trying to work out if the horse has the ability/mark/conditions etc to get competitive and whether they're overpriced to do so - that's hard and our challenge of course. But when a trainer targets a race they've previously won, it helps in that endeavour.
There were five races flagged on Saturday on ITV and they were all won by a trainer who'd previously won said race in the last 13 years... including Stonific (20/1>40/1, who also hit my trends shortlist of 6), Franky Du Berlais (11/1, I didn't have him sadly, alas), Real World (short enough maybe), Happy Romance (11s) and Gubbass (5s or so, well backed) . Of course landing on them is easier said than done but it's always been a decent 'starting point' for competitive races shown on ITV.
Talking of trainers being 'creatures of habit', onto today and with any luck something useful for you to absorb, from today's Members' Post but i'm sure they won't mind...
Flat Pointers
The two flat cards are utterly diabolical today if you ask me, low grade, small field sizes, what's the point. As such, i'm taking a trip to the beach...
To Chelmsford...
...where I should flag Richard Hughes, who has a couple of runners today (18.05, 20.10). All of his runners here look worthy of a second glance as it's a track he's clearly targeted since taking out his licence in 2015, and since being more established/working out what type is needed around here... so, since the start of 2018, all runners...
153 bets / 34 wins / 64p / 22% sr / +58 SP / +120 BFSP / BF AE 1.55
Those stats from HorseRaceBase, a quick glance at Geegeez Gold tells me in the last 5 years, 61% of rivals beaten, 62% in the last year, which is solid, especially against his overall yearly average of 52% rivals beaten. So more finish nearer last than first here than typically for him.
Back to digging into those top level stats above...
- The odds guide to some degree for all he's had x1 16/1, and x1 20/1 winners. Those sent off 22/1 or bigger from those stats above are 0/21, 0p and just focussing on those 20/1< improves the stats to 132 bets / 34 wins / 64p / 26% sr / 49% place SR / +79 SP / +141 BFSP / BF AE 1.58
- Within that... his non-handicappers tend to be short enough, well to SP (9/41, 22p, -4 SP) but all his handicappers here in that time, 20/1< SP... 91 bets / 25 wins / 42p / 27% sr / +83 SP / +137 BFSP. In 2021 he's 8/20, 10p, +100 with his handicappers here.
- Staying on the handicaps...
- And there's not too much more to highlight, i've done some digging but the stats are strong across all classes (well, 0/7, C2, but small numbers), distances, age ranges etc (does well in nursery handicaps also), stall position, times of year etc. There are no real stand out jockeys either. Of note...
- Those making handicap debut.. 5/14, 7p, +73 BFSP
Essentially if you like playing at Chelmsford, all of Richard's runners are worth a proper look, esp his handicappers.
Those to have never run here are 7/33, 13p, +78 BFSP, so don't be put off by a lack of 'course form', we're trusting the trainer to know what to send here.
Hughes has one handicapper today... Twice As Likely in the 18.05, currently 11/2, 5/1 or so, with 4 places to aim at. His form in April (inc a class 5 win, class 6 today) and that run two starts back would put him right in the mix here I think. He's run twice here and not done too much, but they've ridden him cold both times which is never ideal around here and he has been 'staying on', to suggest the surface is fine. IF they do the same again today, then it would be puzzling. The horse has won from far more aggressive rides so not a case that he has to be held up, maybe he can be slow away, I don't know. He's drawn 1 here, and if Tyler doesn't go forward and try to get up there, he will likely hit all sorts of traffic if coming from further back. And in a race without loads of pace on paper, although in these apprentice races they can go quick enough.
The horse is now 2/12,4p in AW handicaps, vs 0/9,1p on the grass.
Hughes is actually 1/2,2p in apprentice handicaps here within those stats above.
Tyler rides this place well enough, stats worth noting also... in class 6 handicaps... 4/21, 6p, +14 SP .. when riding for Richard in C6 handicaps here... 2/3,2p.
If he gets a prominent ride i'd be mildly surprised if he's out the top 4 to my eyes, although I said similar about Rathbone who fell out of the stalls, game over. Thankfully Kevin's other Hamilton runner got the job done. If this one is ridden further back he will need loads of luck in running (both a strong pace and gaps up the inside) but with 4 places at least may be 'running on' for no damage done. On what is a very quiet day, I'll have some EW change for interest with the hope of paying for the next round at the pub. A bit of fun on a quiet day.
His other runner, Schwartz, is currently 25/1 in a novice, having not shown much at all on debut, dropping in trip here - hard to get a handle on, maybe the market will guide as to expectations. Maybe he will be winning here on handicap debut in two starts time :) Spencer has been booked, the perfect jockey for a young horse if you want to teach them how to switch off, race, conserve energy and finish of their races, a valuable education that will help ensure he wins further down the line. But maybe today is the day, who knows.
Anyway, as always do with that little lot as you please, but stats to note moving forwards whatever today's outcome.
Best of luck with any bets as always, Josh
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