Good Morning Friend

It's an exciting day. Mercian Knight runs in the 5pm Bangor, the first time in the Racing To Profit Syndicate silks. (above) 

I thought I'd share my preview video and notes with you for those interested, from the 'Owners' Area' of my blog. I'm sure the 40 syndicate members won't mind and one day may be a few of you will join us on this exciting journey. It's just the start. 

My notes…

Mercian Knight – this is a good starting point for him and we are desperate to get a run into him. As previously noted he will very much come on for the run, but he’s fit enough to do himself justice and you never know. But clearly he’s not race fit and he’s a big old unit of a horse. Amy is more than capable of readying them at home but its our understanding he will very much come on for the run. This CD, on good/ to soft, may be tight enough also but with any luck he can lob along near the front end and enjoy himself. We shall see what he does from 2/3 out, whether he blows up and goes backwards, or has enough in the tank to plug on, and possibly cling on for a place. I won’t sit here and say he can’t win, as he will leave this mark of 110 behind at some point, but maybe when stepped up in trip/softer ground and on his next 2/3 starts. I go into more depth on his overall profile and ‘journey’ so far in the video above. It will be exciting to see him out and fingers crossed he travels well for Jack, jumps well and keeps galloping.

Of the rest…

There’s three proper ‘could be anything’ types in this, as staying handicap chasers – and that very much applies to us still also.

Poldark Cross – looks likely to go off fav and if he does so may indicate he’s fit and ready to roll here. The market could well guide. He hacked up in a point (although the form isn’t worth too much as yet) before running credibly in x3 novice hurdles, that have worked out ok. He will no doubt leave this mark behind at some point over fences. Is he fit? How will he jump? And will this ground be lively enough for him? And will the track be too tight? They are all questions he has to answer, which he may do emphatically. With my ‘value’ eyes he doesn’t look like being a price worth taking to find out, but I could be wrong. As I type the market hasn’t really formed as yet.

Emphatic Qualm – he makes chase debut for Twister and in 1st time cheekpieces. He was only beaten 1l on his seasonal return last year so may well be fit. Is this the time to catch him? Sam Twiston-Davies is at Chepstow, I’m not sure if that’s an indication for this one’s chance (and his Dad has one in an earlier race) or simply more a positive for his Chepstow rides. Jordan Nailor can ride and knows the horse well, and some of his hurdles form reads well, suggesting this mark of 110 is very workable. It looks like he may be best on decent ground also, and of course Twisters were a bit off in the last 18 months, possibly illness. Maybe that affected him at times last season also. They’re firing again now. He’s only 6. Plenty more to come from his inform yard. He has no point experience. Is he fit, and how will he jump? There the questions he has to answer, but he is interesting, for all inexperienced.

Those two are worth taking forward whatever they do here. I suspect both will be winning 3m+ handicap chases soon enough, maybe this race.

Anywayyoulookatit – he’s the other interesting one at the possible odds here. Jonjo is in decent form and he does very well with Junior around here … 7/24, 12p. (injured over the weekend, Will K now rides) The horse is 1/7 over fences and his form of Aug-Sept 2020 would put him in the mix here. He’s unexposed over 3m and it looks like he’s best with some ‘good’ in the going – the very soft ground a possible excuse for his last four starts. He responded well to CP five starts ago and they keep them on here – making me think he’s here to run his race/is fit. He also very nearly won after 198 days off last July. A few of his races have worked out well and he’s got big field/solid gallop chase form/experience. I think he’s interesting, possibly for today, but certainly moving forward. He has more handicap chase wins in him for sure from this mark. You’re taking fitness on trust to some degree, and a slight niggle this CD may be sharp enough for him, but he could have a decent pace to sit off.

Those three, and Mercian Knight, are the most interesting moving forwards given their profiles.

The rest of them have a more ‘been there and done it’ profile- they’re looking for a repeat of a previous performance, and hoping that’s good enough. Which it may be, it’s that time of year, and the three above may all need the run.

If that’s the case, then it is open enough

Oscar Nomination – having said the above, he’s unexposed, I actually tipped him LTO in the members’ post at 8s>4s, but he was awkward at the last, which ultimately cost him. He will try and make all here and will be fit I think. However, the form of that race is only ‘so so’, he needs more, and he is open to attack from something with more about them. While this is a drop in class, I actually think this could be more competitive than his race here LTO. He’s solid, if unspectacular, but if he can build on LTO, that may be enough. I wouldn’t discount him too readily.

Sandy Boy is inconsistent but may come on for his break LTO and will appreciate coming back to a conventional left handed track. Still, I don’t think his best will be good enough to win, he’s tricky to get right, has his own ideas about the game and his form is only ok, more summer form. He has his limitations but if he ran his race could place I suppose, for all he needs a few to underperform and a couple of those above to need the run/not jump very well – which isn’t impossible.

Out For Justice – the same applies to this one, a CD winner, who’s still 2lb above his last winning mark and his winning form has been in weak enough races. But, he’s fit, he jumps, gallops and should be staying on, back up in trip here. He’s not handicapped out of this, just open to attack from something more progressive/more class. He’s reached his ceiling, very much about coming back down the ratings and repeating an old performance, which will be good enough at some point in the next year, as he has a likeable profile. They usually ride him out the back and he will need a pace collapse I think. He’s not out of this at an EW price, but I generally prefer to focus on horses open to progress. But he’s solid enough and will be running on, but will it be too late/will his legs be quick enough against some of these. We shall see.

I didn’t think Dragonfruit would be good enough for all he’s unexposed to a point so no shock if he runs a race. The yard form is a bit iffy and they have a poor record around here. I’m guessing as to whether he’ll be fit, the yard can ready them but plenty come on for their return run also. His only win over 16f, he does have stamina to prove also. A few too many questions for me and not a go-to jockey for the yard. I could have him wrong though.

That leaves the 11YO Steel Wave who looks regressive I think, but a headgear switch. He is a CD winner but surely finds younger legs too good for him here, up in class. He hasn’t been able to win weak C5s, this surely beyond him. Stranger thins have happened though.

I think that’s the lot, do with that as you please! It has an intriguing feel to it and on paper is competitive enough for the grade.

Pace… as per the pace map in the video, Oscar Nomination likes to front run, and Jack usually likes to have Mercian K prominent if he’s the pace to hold a position. Hopefully he can lob along next to Oscar or just behind him, the rest slotting in behind. Poldark could just be decent and take off for a fence, and his natural cruising speed could see him up there also, depending on how he jumps of course.

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Hopefully something of interest there. I'm just about to set off to Bangor and have never been, so looking forward to it. It's a bit of a trek from Suffolk, but a must. There's a handful of shareholders attending also I can't wait to meet. A fun day ahead,

Cheers,

Josh