Hello Friend
Before I get on to today's musings... don't forget to check out my latest free stats post, if you missed my last email. It looks at a few pointers for Sue Smith's runners in Jan/Feb that have been very profitable in recent years, as well as a couple of 'hot form' horses/races to keep an eye on when they next appear.
Onto today...
From the members' post... my main tipping focus is 3m+ handicap chases and the big Festivals (mainly Cheltenham) but during the week it can be a tad too quiet for my liking - some poor races/small fields, with all the quality seemingly back-loaded to the weekends. So, in order to give loyal masses something else to chew over, i've decided to try again with a 'best of the stats' selections - using my various stats qualifiers as way's in (there's Section 2 which are the qualifiers against my annual Trainer Track Profiles reports and the Test Zone- various other trainer/jockey angles with a main focus on chases)
The very first of these 'test' selections is below. He's been nibbled at since I posted and it is a bit of a poke. But if nothing else you'll enjoy the write up and there's a 'trainer micro' of sorts you may wish to jot down for future reference >>>
Best of The Stats? (test: 0/0)
12.05 Uttox - SEYMOUR SOX - 1 point win - 18/1 (bet365/WH/UniB) 16/1 (others)
that's all today as of 08.06 (he's now 12s generally)
One from Section 2 here and admittedly it's a bit of a poke. He could be useless at the moment/needs more time, but as always there's method to my increasing madness and if he's well backed the excitement will build. This is an atrocious race and I couldn't resist him at his price, on handicap hurdle debut. What's in his favour?
Some stats...
This is one of Alastair's Ralph's target tracks I think - 9/33,15p, +14 SP all runners here in his training career to date - he was Dr Newland's assistant for a time I believe and I can think of worse teachers for aspiring trainers. I believe Liam Treadwell is assisting also, which is a positive for his young horses/schooling etc. I digress... he's also 6/23,10p in handicaps here, 3/13,5p in handicap hurdles, 2/5 when it's heavy.
Micro? With all 5 year old handicap hurdlers he's 5/17,10p, +34 BFSP, and aged 5+6 = 8/28, 14p, +38 BFSP (1/4 hncp h debut- 2/5,3p at Uttox)
He's also 2/9, 3p, +22 with his handicap hurdle debutants in 2019 and the yard are starting to fire, having been quiet earlier in the year... 3/13,3p +16 in the last 14 days, 4/21, 5p in the last 30. The jockey is decent enough also and is in form, 5/25,7p in the last 30 days.
The going...
It's Heavy, a bit of an unknown - (That's My Rabbit the only heavy ground winner in the race to date) - looking at his sire - well in recent years his handicap hurdlers in heavy are 5/24,10p. His half brothers (same Dam) are Seymour Eric and Seymour Star (trainer knows the latter well) - the former hit ratings in the 130s inc 3/7,4p in handicap hurdles on heavy. The latter handled soft and also hit ratings in the 130s. I think this horse does have handicap wins in him, just whether that's soon or if he needs more time to mature.
The horse...
Well there's the relations above as some indication as to what he 'could' become in time and he's clearly been running for an education to date while being allowed to mature etc. And he may need more time. He's been running in some decent enough Novice hurdles, in the context he's rated 97. Well if I look at that Chepstow run two starts back... the 2nd in that has a rating of 130. The 3rd has placed a couple of times since off 128. He was entitled to be miles behind them. He was 12l behind a Pipe horse who won a few days ago off 109. In that sense there's bits and pieces of promise, and when looking at his siblings. LTO was a write off I think - of course he may have needed it, and he was sent off 100/1 - but he did hang left all the way through it and Treadwell was struggling to stop him lugging left, as he reported post race. So, going back LH may help him, and dropping into a race where on ratings he's the best in here (but it could be over-inflated - we shall find out soon)
Like I said it could be that at this stage of his career he just isn't very good, and he needs more time to mature. But he was 18s/16s, and there's some solid reasoning for why he may leave previous form behind. His canny trainer will get wins out of him at some stage and he's found an awful race here.
Pace/Running style... well on paper there are no out and out front runners in this but SS did jump of handy at Ludlow, before then falling back through the field. Hopefully he may race up there again, lobbing away, with the rail on his inside to help him. There's plenty of stamina in his pedigree and with any luck he's a lively outsider. GL
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All the best, Josh |
