Hello Friend

I hope you're having a great week and are all set for the Festive period. I haven't been in touch for a few days in part as I haven't had much to say and i've also been on a sporting tour... (there's some Sue Smith stats below and some eye-catchers) 

Last Thursday I was down in Warwick to watch Really Super run - sadly the ground turned heavy and while it was safe Jack reported that she wasn't enjoying it and she looked after herself. She didn't have a hard race. She's off on  a 4-6 week break now before being aimed at a race at Mares Haydock in April. Well, that's the longer term plan anyway. It was a fun day out with a good turn out from the syndicate, which is what it's all about for us. 

I then hot-footed it across to Cheltenham where on the Friday I was lucky to be invited to the works Xmas bash of someone i've befriended at Aintree over the years. I think the poor sod is even a member now, so I did owe him a drink :) I would thoroughly recommend the Gold Cup Restaurant if you've never been. A whole day of food buffets, bubbles, Guinness and racing. All in great company. What more could you want. One of our number had his biggest win in 40 years betting - winning £9k from a £31.50 Lucky 63. He needed Fergal O'Briens to win the last and it was some thrill. More bubbles. Something we can all dream of doing! 

I finished off the weekend by heading into London to the World Championship Darts at the Ally Pally. Superb fun when there's a group of you and a very well organised event. 

Below you can find a couple of extracts from recent Members' Posts.... 'Micro Monday' which is a weekly post looking at some trainer / jockey / pace stats etc and 'Tracker Tuesday' with a look back over the previous week and any horses (usually chasers) that caught my eye...

First up, an extract from this week's Micro Monday post looking at Sue Smith...

What follows is a look at Sue Smith’s National Hunt runners in January and February, since the start of 2014.

Of those trainers with 80 or more winners in the period (13 of them) she’s the only one that’s profitable to SP, which is always a decent starting point for further analysis.

There’s plenty of logic for why a trainer may do particularly well in Jan/Feb – there’s a question of horses now being fully tuned up/race fit – and if this autumn is anything to go by there’s hope that Sue Smith may be about to bang in the winners as per previous years – it’s been apparent many have needed a run or three. Her string is threatening to burst into life which bodes well. Younger horses may now have the required experience and/or connections have worked out what their ideal conditions may now be. Older/more exposed handicappers may have seen their marks drop back to a range they can win from. There’s no doubt a few other reasons also.

Of course, there’s then ‘the going’ however it should be noted the stats suggest that Smith’s do just as well in Jan/Feb whatever the going is, but they generally handle soft/heavy well.

With any luck the Smith team will have another profitable ‘winter’ period.

Below you can find my analysis on ‘Team Smith’s’ January and February runners. You’ll see that any horse she runs is worth some attention. However, I’ve focussed on the handicappers and provided a few possible ‘ways in’ or areas that you may wish to focus on.

Current ‘trainer form’ is always an important factor and come the start of January it may be wise to take a temperature check on how the string are performing generally.

Let’s crack on…

Sue Smith

(National Hunt Runners / Jan + Feb / Start 2014 >)

All Runners

360 bets / 82 wins / 152p / 23% sr / +134 SP / +216 BFSP / AE 1.24


Handicap vs Non Handicap

-Non handicaps: 95 bets / 17 wins / 37p / 18% sr / +15 SP / +33 BFSP / AE 1.07

-Handicaps: 265 bets / 65 wins / 115p / 25% sr / +120 SP / +185 BFSP / AE 1.29


From now on, a focus on Sue Smith’s Handicap Runners >>>

Handicaps

(Sue Smith/ National Hunt/ Jan + Feb/ 2014>) 

Age

- 5 or 6: 49 bets / 19 wins / 30p / 39% sr / +47 SP / +55 BFSP / AE 1.75

Class Move

-Dropped in Class from LTO: 66 bets / 21 wins / 32p / 32% sr / +75 SP / +118 BFSP / AE 1.64

Bottom Weights

(including joint bottom weights)

-35 bets / 11 wins /15p / 31% sr / +27 SP / +32 BFSP / AE 1.59

Number of Runners

- 7 or fewer: 95 bets / 33 wins / 44p / 35% sr / +64 SP / +77 BFSP / AE 1.4

Jockey

- Danny Cook: 120 bets / 35 wins / 62p / 29% sr / +82 SP / +128 BFSP / AE 1.37

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Tracker Tuesday.... and now a piece from Tuesday's 'Tracker Tuesday' (members only) post, where i've introduced a look back at 'hot form', (races that are working out well) in a bid to highlight potential future winners... this is in addition to my usual vide0 analysis. As if often the case i've focussed on chasers >>>

Hot Form >>>

I've decided to use the 'hot/cold races' tool within HRB (HorseRaceBase) as part of my weekly 'Tracker Tuesday' routine, in addition to watching replays etc. 

'Hot Form' is an important factor to consider before any bet, helping us to get a grip on the strength of the races a horse has been running in, and whether they may be well handicapped. If a horse has been finishing in and around subsequent winners that's usually a positive sign and some indication that their turn may be near. It doesn't always work out and you have to judge how the form was achieved, in addition to the usual 'race/profile' analysis, but 'hot form' is a useful string to our punting bow. 

With that said....

Horse: Lygon Rock 

He finished 5th of 11, beaten 11l,  in the 1.20 Carlisle on the 3rd of November. This was a Novice handicap chase packed with unexposed chasers. He had a mark of 125 going into it and has since been dropped 2lb to 123. This was his chase debut and first run in 197 days. He jumped well enough and may want better ground. 

He's yet to run since but the race is working out well enough...

• The winner won again on his next start, taking a Novice chase with a mark of 138 
• 2nd was subsequently a solid 2nd in a Novice chase 
• 3rd won his next start off 127
• 4th subsequently 2nd by a neck 

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Race: BetVictor Gold Cup (Cheltenham/16th Nov) 

This race is starting to produce subsequent winners suggesting it was a solid enough renewal...

3rd - Warthog-  won the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup on Saturday 
5th - Magic Saint - would win at Newbury on his next start, front two miles clear 
Slate House - he fell when looking likely to win, and won his next start

Happy Diva has yet to run again, being aimed at the Huntingdon Mares Chase she won last year I believe. 

The two of most interest, that have yet to race, could well be :-

Belami Des Pictons - finished 4th, badly hampered 2nd, did well to get so close really. More to come if staying sound. 

Court Meribel - finished 6th - I'm not sure his 'ideal conditions' are fully known as yet but his form generally has a strong enough feel to it and connections felt him good enough to run in the RSA in March. He should be adding to his chase tally at some point this season and could have a decent handicap in him, possibly over 3m. His two chase wins have been on Good. 

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Happy Punting, 

Josh