To today's racing...
Not much to get excited about today to my eyes.
I'll start by flagging the form of Ed Dunlop... the yard are flying, 9/28,15p, 70% rivals beaten last 14 days...14.19% wsr 2023, highest since 2012 (8% for few years), w/p sr 37% in 2023, highest since 2008. Obviously this form may level off but Ed's only two winners short than he had in the whole of 2020. I'm not sure if there's new staff, a new approach, better horses, more owners, a change of buying strategy (using new bloodstock agents etc) and so on - or it's just he cyclical nature of the beast, but without doubt whatever they've done is working in 2023 to date, and they can fly in at all prices.
He's a few runners today across Chelmo and Yarmouth, and for my sins I thought 'Puzzletown' at 16/1, in the 6.50 Chelmsford, may look the most intriguing. It's a mediocre C6 3YO handicap, they're all a bit mediocre. This one made his return 15 days ago, far too keen, but he should strip fitter, drops in trip and now gets a 1st time hood.. Ed is 4/15,6p +10 with those since start of 2022. Obviously the yard are flying. I watched his run here at Wolves last season over 8.5f, he led a decent field (subsequent 75-80s+ horses) deep into that, making all, probably going too hard, before fading, but I think it showed some potential. Rab Havlin gets a go, and he's riding well at the moment, 30% SR last 14 days - I hope they force him forward again, dropped in trip, and see if that helps - he could just be useless, you have been warned, but I've found £2 down the back of the sofa for mild interest on a quiet day. The fav may win well but there are 4-5 places up for grabs, hopefully the yard form rubs off on him.
Ed will no doubt have a winner elsewhere now, but do keep an eye on the yard in the next few weeks, they've been very consistent so far this season and while the form may tail off at some stage, it doesn't look likely just yet.
I'm going to mention three 'shorties' now, who are not overpriced but some stats to absorb and who knows, maybe 2 of the 3, or all 3, will win... Something for the 'jumps only' fans...
Harry Cobden - he heads to Ffos Las today, a course he rides very well... 12/39,18p in the last 5 years, which is solid, and worth noting.
To my eyes his two most interesting today are Holerday Ridge in the 2.50, who at 5/4 is no gift, but could be a 'jump and you win' ride, although they remove the hood for some reason, but he bolted up over CD LTO and if repeats that, just wins I think. Famous last words. He's got a ride for Rebecca Curtis in the 5.05 also, Cumhacht, 2/1, who he rode LTO over shorter, where she was a bit keen. I assume he's advised them to step her up in trip, her form has an ok look to it, and if dropping her head, could take off now over this trip. A 5/1-6/1 double that may pay for a round at the pub tomorrow, possible.
Finally... I just wanted to flag the form of Nicky Richards and Sean Quinlan together, 4/12,6p +12 SP in the last 30 days, Nicky looks to have his summer string in good form and when the main man is on.
In fact Nicky is 3/3 with all runners in the last 14 days. Not bad!
So, anything he runs at the moment is worth a close look.. he's got Rose of Sienna (11/4) in the 3.10 under Sean and Millie of Mayo in the 4.55 (8/1) under Danny M. Rose isn't necessarily overpriced, but I thought sets an ok standard, second run back after a wind op, she could step forward here in a race that may not take much winning - but it is low grade stuff and I'm not as confident as with the two Cobden ones above, for all we know the drill now! If she builds on Perth though, she should be bang there against these.
Hard to know what to expect from Millie of Mayo, a x3 winner in 2020 inc off 10lb higher, but only x3 runs since Dec 2020, suggesting she's had major problems. Another break here, but still they persevere, and if she's brittle, maybe this is the time to catch her, who knows. Danny M rode her to those wins, a weak race, yard flying - the sort who could go close, or tail off.
Anyway, more 'chat' than 'tips' but if you've time, you can have a flick through the above and decide whether i'm mad or not - but those Dunlop, Cobden and Richards stats worth jotting down for the future.
GL with any bets,
Josh
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