Good Morning, Friend
Below you can find a couple of pace angle horses from Catterick that could be worth noting for this afternoon, and also a free magazine which is a great read, especially if you like your stats, betting angles, and so on. A must really.
Not much to shout about from the four I sent out last time - in saying that the first one went very close for Heather Main at Brighton, well backed from 10s, sadly just bumping into a better treated one, front two miles clear, but no damage for EW punters. A game of fine margins. Johnny Murtagh didn't add to his Gowran stats for all his maiden runner ran well and looks to have a future, maybe one to watch next time especially if stepped up in trip. Trevelyn's Corn was bang there at Hexham, looking like the winner leaving the back, before something went amiss and Brian Hughes pulled him up. Sadly he was fatally injured, thoughts with all connections. It's a rotten game at times, the highs very high, the lows quite awful.
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Onto today... and Catterick...
4.10 - So Grateful - 11/2 - EW 4p
5.12 - Jackmeister Rudi - 11/1 - EW 4p
I'm certainly more bullish on the former here, given he arrives in form... the Easterby horse running well at Hamilton when last seen 18 days ago, bumping into an in-form rival, and I suspect that stiff finish just finding him out. The 'way in' was the Geegeez Pacemap, which suggests this one could try and make all from his low draw.
That's certainly the place to be over this CD on Good to Firm, in handicaps those that have led are 12/32, 21p, (37% sr), +60 SP since 2009, 5/11,8p, +15 SP since 2015. So, if we can find 'make all' horses around here in 6f handicaps, especially on fast ground, we'll do very well.
So Grateful is well handicapped on his AW form, he has the class for this sort of race, fast ground looks fine and he's got course experience over shorter. The horse arrives in form posting a decent RPR LTO. Shane Grey is decent from the front also, so fingers crossed he can bounce out and make all, especially as he now knows the horse.
Lezardrieux ... could be his main danger and us a headache. He can make all also, and there's a niggle these two cut each others throats up top - he was far too keen here last time, and won't get home if doing the same, but a change of jockey and if he settles better here, he could be bang there. He does like this place.
So Grateful is possibly open to more improvement - maybe they'll be 1-2 all the way round here in a certain order, that's not an impossible scenario for reverse forecast players.
It is a low grade handicap after all and maybe something else will sprout wings, plenty out wider will need some luck/want them to go too hard.
Jackmeister Rudi - he's a bit weak in the market at the moment and may just be out of form but there's a chance he gets an easy lead here from his low draw, which is worth plenty. Front runners over this 7f trip here, on fast, in handicaps, operate at a 25% wsr, +15 SP. 7f is a bit of an unknown, he's shaped a few times if worth a go at this venue - if he can't stay 7f around here on GF, then he doesn't stay 7f.
He does need to settle a bit better on the front but has been lit up plenty the last twice, esp over shorter LTO when maybe doing too much too soon. He's well handicapped on old course form and will pop up around here at some point again, maybe dropped back to 6f, but there's enough there for a small interest I think- they have an in-form 3YO to beat and they'll probably all be chasing him home, but hopefully he's ahead 2f out and we'll then see what he finds. Still, with 4 places, with any luck he's thereabouts.
As always, do with those musings as you please!
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