Good Morning, Friend,
I hope you had a great weekend. Sadly no winner from Sam Darby but after three in a row he was probably due a so-so run, which in typical fashion came from a horse he was rather bullish about. The Scoop6 turned out to be impossible for everyone, another rollover, and whoever takes that pot down will have an enjoyable afternoon, it likely to be £250k+ next week.
I had one of my better weeks, what with 5/7 at Beverley and a decent winner at Worcester. My York Dante Festival Jockey Stats fired out a few juicy winners, hopefully you may have landed on the odd one. Atzeni/Tudhope/Murphy ended up 3/13, +20 BSP with all their rides in non-handicaps. Allan/Lee/Beasley were 1/11 in handicaps, +1 BSP... that winner for Connor Beasley, who was 33s>10s for David & Mick Easterby. Solid enough. I'll try and dig out a few more jockey stats for various flat festivals in the weeks ahead.
We had our Syndicate Open Day on Saturday, 30 owners/guests descended on Amy's yard in the morning, inc a trip to the gallops. We then headed to the races, where I needed a winner in the lucky last to save my day, before a trip to the pub and then a curry. All in all, a great day had by all and it was great to meet a few new faces.
On Sunday I headed to Stratford to watch our Shan, with Harry Cobden doing the steering - the first time i'd met/spoken to him and he came across very well as you'd expect. Shan ran another cracker in 2nd, which he looked booked for behind Skelton's Mare, which would have been a solid run at the weights, but it was still in the balance. She then came down (and thankfully got straight back up, as did Bridget) and hampered us in the process, losing vital momentum, which by all accounts then cost us the win. The great game!
We're going to try him in blinkers next - Jack and Amy had mused over them and it was the first thing Harry said when getting off, thinking they could have a transformative effect. He'll also be going back to the show jumping ground to work on his jumping, which has never been the most polished, safe, but it could be more fluent at times, some he pings, some he doesn't. Still, he's yet to be out the first 5 for us, x2 2nds, £8k in place prize money since end November - a great little syndicate horse. We will get him his win.
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Today's racing...
I've had a flick through the cards and a few stats have led me to the following of interest...
2.53 Brighton - Island Native - 10/1 EW (now 8s, 4places gen)
6.10 Gowran - Shayzann - 8/1-9/1 EW
6.50 Hexham - Trevelyn's Corn - 5/1 EW
7.40 Gowran - Alabama Pearl - 10/1-12/1 EW (4-5p)
They're all risky to some degree, Trevelyn's Corn looking the most solid for the top 3, hopefully a bet to nothing (famous last words of course) but there's method to the madness for them all and as always, whatever they do, for those of you who like your stats, there's a few juicy ones to note down for the future.
Island Native - the 'way in' was Heather Main's stats with her 1st time handicappers - 3/10,3p +22 SP in the last year - not massive numbers but she doesn't have a big yard and they look significant. With 3YOs in turf handicaps, Heather is 14/79, 26p (18% sr), +72 SP, and over 7f, 5/21,8p, +35.
She's also booked Ray Dawson which I hope is significant, due to his course record. He's ridden a few winners for the yard but rides Brighton well generally, and at C6 level... 7/22,10p, +22 SP (another on in the 5.26 but a 13 race maiden)
The horse... well he's been running ok in Novice races and up against horses he had no right to get that close to. His Kempton effort was good, the front two now 90s+ horses, the winner since going in at Listed Level. Salisbury wasn't bad either, and a few 70 horses in and around him also. I'm hoping we see a different horse dropped into a C6 handicap against horses of a similar level. It's also his first run on quick ground, that 'could' be the key - of course, some horses hate this course and don't handle the downhill bits, so we shall see, but the price lured me in and I expect so see a step forward here. Of course, he could just be very very moderate, but he has shown bits and pieces of promise to my eyes and this is much easier, an open looking race. Fingers crossed.
Shayzann - worth flagging for the stats, for all he'd have to be rather smart on debut to trouble the first two in the market, for all they are open to attack from a debutant, but set a reasonable level. The rest could be playing for 3rd.
Johnny Murtagh is in decent form and when main man Ben Cohen is up top 4/13,7p, +9 in the last 14 days.
Johnny is 3/15,4p with his debutants in 2023. Gowran looks a target track for those also.
He's 4/17,6p +60 with his 1st time out 3YOs at Gowran - that's worth noting and the sort of micro you could just back blind. He's 3/3 with this type in 2023, so here's hoping!
Murtagh/Cohen are 8/23,13p,+10 when teaming up at the course in the last year. In 3YO / Non handicaps / Gowran : they're 11/33,20p, +46p
So, there's some stats method at least, who knows, maybe this colt is very good. Shamardal's Flat 3Yos operate at a 24% sr, and he's well bred as you'd expect from The Aga Khan operation. Maybe today isn't the day, but one to watch on his next few starts.
Trevelyn's Corn - the fav may be hard to beat here but this big drop in trip isn't sure to suit and it's a relatively quick return for a 3m chaser, but of course he may cope with it just fine. If he can comfortably travel ahead of the selection, in theory he'll keep going, but maybe Micky Hammond's charge can outpace him. He's lightly raced for his age and has run well the last twice, but has maybe got stuck in the mud the last twice. A return to better ground gives promise, he's got a falling mark, and a few runs back had a decent effort behind Into Overdrive over the CD, well and truly 'bumping into one' that day, given what he'd go on to do. If he gets back to that level he simply has to be bang there against these.
The stats 'way in' was the trainer/jockey... Hammond/Chaston 9/31, 14p, +40 together around here, 3/14,6p in the last year. They're 5/19,9p +19 in Hexham handicaps together. Solid.
Alabama Pearl - back to Gowran we go and most of those Murtagh/Cohen stats are applicable again. In 3YO handicaps around here, Johnny is also 13/42, 24p, +44 SP, 5/16, 9p, +12 when Ben C is doing the steering. Solid stattage.
This filly is unexposed, may have needed her return run, and now gets 1st blinkers. 1st CP appeared to help 2 starts back, no headgear for her seasonal return. She also runs on decent ground for the first time, which 'could' make a difference. She has some solid placed efforts to her name as a novice and looks like a trier - she puts her head down and gallops. This looks an open handicap on paper, for all I haven't been through the rest in much depth, but at a decent price I thought there were reasons to be hopeful. The yard are flying and she'll be here to do her best, given the headgear application. Hopefully in and around the places, and then we shall see!
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So, a few of interest today, as always, muse over the above and act as you please! Or just enjoy the read and note what you wish,
As always, good luck with any bets,
Josh
