Hello, Friend

A few items of interest for you today, including a quick re-cap on yesterday's highlighted horse, who while a loser, still ran ok.

First up... Sam Darby's free Friday Flat preview went up at at 8pm last night. I appear to have cursed his efforts so far but he'll start firing in the winners soon enough. In any case it's an informative read as always.

Today he's focussed on the 2.05 Newbury and given its on the softer side, Gisburn looks to be the main play at 6/1.

You can read this free post HERE >>>

While flicking through myself, I did note from Geegeez that Richard Hannon and James Doyle are 5/11,7p, +24 SP together at Newbury in the last 5 years, which is a stat/combo worth noting more generally for the Newbury season ahead.

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A quick re-cap...

Novus – an interesting ride/run, drifting from 8s > 12s – sadly she was drawn on the wrong side I think, but in any case, to my eyes looked all at sea on the course, which was a danger. Possibly outpaced also and she weaved around a bit under pressure (again maybe the course). Tom appeared to keep taking her behind horses to the centre, but then finished nearside. Maybe he was just looking after her or that’s the closest she was meant to get. I thought she ran better than the final finishing position suggested. She either needs 1m+ and /or much softer but add to the trackers. I’ll be disappointed if she doesn’t have a win or two in her in the coming weeks. She has the options of racing against her own sex also. Hopefully only beer money loaned, to be paid back with interest soon!

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Today's Notes/Musings

4.35 Kilbeggan – Jane Wild  – 7/1 (since a R4)

Just one today from my sift through the Geegeez Report Angles, and I suppose this one is very much about the stats, although what she’s done on course is interesting…

She makes handicap debut here, and Colm Murphy is 4/8, 6p +16 with handicap debutants in the last 2 years, which is solid, and the sort of micro angle that could keep paying over time.

He’s well versed at readying them after a break, and when teaming up with Brian Hayes, they’re 7/19,10p together in the last year, +9. He rides this one for the first time, the trainer having used inexperienced pilots on her previous starts in maiden hurdles. Interesting. In fact, in all handicaps together in the last 6 years, they’re 7/15,10p, +44.

So, a good stats foundation for this type. The yard are in form, 1/4,2p in the last 14 days and this one arrives on the back of an 83 day break. Maybe in that time she’s strengthened a bit, freshened up but is also now hard fit – a chance she wasn’t when running to get a mark. She also returns on decent ground, which ‘could’ make a difference and unless the break has been due to an issue, I’ll assume its what connections think she wants. I thought her Fairyhouse run LTO was interesting, the jockey not exactly overly tough on her at times, and maybe on ground soft enough. The winner of that race has since gone close in two big Festival handicaps at Chelt and Aintree, off a mark in the mid 130s, so she probably was never getting close to that one. A mark of 97 here.

It looks an open/weak handicap hurdle on paper and she has the sort of profile, in context of the trainer stats/method also, and the jockey booking, where she could now take off. Of course, she could just be moderate and today isn’t the day, but at 7s, I think enough juice in the price to have a fun nibble in which to find out. The market may well guide as race time approaches.

There are 5 places up for grabs for EW players. I’d like to think she’s definitely here to run to her best, we shall see if that’s good enough to be in the mix but 97 may underestimate her.

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All the best,

Josh