Subject: Free Credit Spread Trade on ADP & 10K Portfolio Update

An opportunity with ADP awaits! Here's my thoughts on last week...

Market Moves (With Jon Lewis from Terry's Tips)

This week in "Market Moves", we’re breaking down a fresh credit spread idea, recapping portfolio performance, and sharing Jon’s latest take on navigating the current market.

🚨FREE TRADE OF THE WEEK 🚨


"The Power of Payroll"

(Credit spread trade)

🖥️ Jon spots a bullish setup in Automatic Data Processing (ADP)

  • Trade Set Up – Put Credit Spread: Sell the June 20th 290/280 put spread for at least $1.90 in credit

  • Sell to Open: ADP 20 Jun 290 Put

  • Buy to Open: ADP 20 Jun 280 Put

  • Expiration Date: 6/20/2025

  • Minimum Credit: $1.90 (= collect $190 per spread)

  • Cash Needed: $1,000 per spread

  • Time in Trade: 46 days (if entered today, 5/6/25)

  • ROI on Winning Trade: 23%

  • This is a bull put spread, which profits if ADP stays above $290 through 6/20/25

  • Risk is limited and defined, since it’s a vertical spread

More on ADP:

  • Beat earnings and revenue estimates this week, with management citing strong demand and record-high client satisfaction

  • Stock rose 2.6% post-earnings, marking six straight positive earnings weeks

  • Shares now sit above the 20 & 50-day moving averages, with the 200-day MA providing support below

  • Analysts showed little excitement, leaving room for future upgrades

  • ADP trades in a defined $285–$315 range, giving this trade additional technical support

  • A solid, boring name — and for credit spreads, that’s a good thing

📉 Chart Note: The green line represents the sold put strike at $290, just above key technical support levels.

Weekly Portfolio Update: As of May 3rd, 2025

(2025 = 4 portfolios, 4 stocks)

Reminder: Jon's "10K" strategy has outperformed the market by over 85% in the last 5 years.


2020-2024 Results - Jon's 10K Strategy

Jon's Weekly Trading Notes (4/28/25-5/2/25)


MSFT Kept Me Busy Last Week!

The week started quiet — too quiet. Monday and Tuesday didn’t bring much market movement, and I called it “the calm before the storm.” I stayed mostly on the sidelines, just opening a few spreads in IWM and MSFT.


That storm hit on Wednesday. A weak GDP print, upbeat consumer data, and growing earnings volatility — especially in MSFT — sparked sharp swings. I held off on trading early, but a late-day surge threw off delta balances, particularly in QQQ and MSFT.


Then came Thursday — the MSFT earnings explosion. The stock jumped 9% at the open, which battered our Wiley Wolf (WW) portfolio. I closed all spreads and rebuilt exposure using new front-week trades to try to claw back some of the losses … which worked out for us.


Friday brought a market rebound and a busy trading day — 25 trades in total across the portfolios. I rebalanced deltas in MSFT, DIS, and IWM, using the Friday strength to reposition and reduce risk.


A 2% weekly loss doesn’t feel great in an up market, but it would have been far worse had the other portfolios not posted gains. And it sure looks better next to WW’s 28% plunge on Thursday.


That brings me to an important point: diversification, one of the oldest lessons in investing. People often ask me which portfolios to trade. My answer is always the same: if you can, trade them all.


You see, I never know which strategy will outperform. WW has been my steadiest performer for years, and now it’s down 30% YTD. Honey Badger was a rock star in 2023, then gave a chunk back in 2024. But by spreading risk across all four portfolios — each with different structures, timeframes, and trade mechanics — I can absorb hits like this week. WW got hammered, but the other three helped cut the Composite’s loss to just 2%. Diversification doesn’t always boost returns, but it does help limit pain. And for someone as risk conscious as I am, that trade off is more than worth it.


Thanks for reading. Best of luck out there this week!

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