The National Association of REALTORS® reported that pending home sales increased a seasonally adjusted 1.4% in April, marking the third consecutive monthly gain and the strongest pace since late 2025. Contract signings rose 3.2% Y/Y, with monthly gains in the Northeast, Midwest, and West partially offset by a modest decline in the South. Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted that buyers are returning with cautious optimism despite ongoing economic uncertainty and slightly higher mortgage rates, adding that demand could strengthen further if borrowing costs ease. Yun also highlighted that limited foreclosure activity continues to support home prices, while constrained inventory risks pushing price appreciation ahead of wage growth and keeping affordability pressures elevated. The Pending Home Sales Index, based on signed contracts for existing homes, serves as a leading indicator for closed sales typically finalized within one to two months.

The Federal Reserve’s April 28–29, 2026 FOMC minutes showed policymakers growing more concerned that inflation may remain elevated longer than previously expected. While the economy was still viewed as expanding at a solid pace and the federal funds rate was held at 3.5% to 3.75%, inflation pressures intensified due to higher global energy prices, Middle East-related supply disruptions, tariffs, and strong AI-driven investment demand. The Committee also expressed greater caution about the labor market, citing signs of weaker hiring, slower wage growth, and declining business confidence. The meeting revealed a divide within the Fed, with four dissenting votes, as some officials still anticipated eventual rate cuts while a majority warned that additional tightening could be needed if inflation remained persistent. Overall, the minutes suggest the Fed is moving toward a more cautious, higher-for-longer policy stance while continuing to assess conditions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported that its Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey index fell sharply to -0.4 in May from 26.7 in April, signaling a broad weakening in regional manufacturing activity after four consecutive monthly gains. The decline was driven by softer demand conditions, as the new orders index dropped to -1.7 from 33.0, its lowest reading since April 2025, while the shipments index fell to 4.9 from 34.0. Labor market conditions remained weak, with the employment index improving modestly to -2.8 from -5.1, while price pressures eased but remained elevated overall, as the prices paid index declined to 47.9 from 59.3 and the prices received index fell to 26.3 from 33.5. Despite the weaker current conditions, firms remained optimistic about the outlook over the next six months, with the future general activity index rising to 53.2, its highest level since June 2021, alongside gains in both future new orders and shipments.