In February, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® rose 2.2 points to 91.2, partially recovering from January’s revised 5.2-point decline but remaining well below its late-2024 four-year high. The Present Situation Index fell 1.8 points to 120.0 on weaker views of current business conditions, while the Expectations Index climbed 4.8 points to 72.0—still below the 80 level associated with recession risk. Inflation and cost-of-living pressures remained a key concern, with consumers expecting interest rates to stay high even as most anticipated higher stock prices over the next year. Buying intentions for big-ticket items increased, led by used cars and select household goods, while homebuying plans continued to soften. Overall, consumer sentiment reflected cautious optimism amid ongoing concerns about prices, policy, and financial security.

The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims increased by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 212,000 for the week ending February 21, following an upward revision to the prior week. The four-week moving average edged up 750 to 220,250. On an unadjusted basis, claims fell 8.0% week over week to 193,107 and remained below the 220,856 filings recorded in the same week last year. Twelve states and territories reported higher initial claims, while forty-one saw declines. For the week ending February 14, the insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.2%, and total insured unemployment decreased by 31,000 to 1.83 million. Continued claims across all state and federal programs totaled 2.24 million for the week ending February 7, slightly lower than the prior week but modestly above year-ago levels, indicating a labor market that remains broadly stable.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.5% in January (seasonally adjusted), following gains of 0.4% in December and 0.2% in November. Over the past 12 months, final demand prices increased 2.9% (unadjusted). The January increase was driven by services, which rose 0.8%, while goods fell 0.3%. Over half of the services gain came from a 2.5% jump in trade service margins, with transportation and warehousing up 1.0%; services excluding trade, transportation, and warehousing were unchanged. Goods prices declined mainly due to energy, as gasoline fell 5.5%, accounting for nearly 80% of the drop, as the broader energy index declined 2.7%. Core PPI rose 0.3% in January, marking a ninth consecutive monthly increase, and advanced 3.4% over the past year.