The Commerce Department reported that the goods and services deficit widened to $77.6 billion in May, a $23.0 billion increase from April's revised $54.6 billion. Exports fell 3.2% to $317.7 billion, led by lower shipments of industrial supplies and materials and capital goods, while imports rose 3.3% to $395.3 billion, driven primarily by higher imports of consumer goods and industrial supplies and materials. The goods deficit increased $23.6 billion to $106.5 billion, while the services surplus edged up $0.6 billion to $28.9 billion. Year-to-date, the overall deficit has narrowed by $203.9 billion (40.6%) compared with the same period in 2025, as exports increased $164.7 billion (11.7%) and imports declined $39.2 billion (2.1%). Meanwhile, the U.S. trade deficit with Mexico widened $5.3 billion to $20.1 billion, reflecting a $3.9 billion increase in imports and a $1.5 billion decline in exports.

The Federal Reserve’s June 16–17, 2026 FOMC minutes showed that policymakers viewed inflation as having moved higher and remaining well above the Committee’s 2 percent objective, while economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace. The Committee unanimously voted to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, citing elevated inflation pressures stemming from lingering tariffs, Middle East-related supply disruptions, and strong AI-driven investment demand. Labor market conditions were viewed as stable and balanced, with solid payroll gains, a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, and easing concerns over labor market deterioration. Participants remained divided on the policy outlook, with many viewing the appropriate year-end federal funds rate as within or slightly below the current target range, while many others assessed that additional policy firming could be warranted if inflation remained elevated.

The National Association of REALTORS® reported that existing-home sales declined 2.4% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million units, though sales remained 2.8% above year-ago levels. Single-family home sales fell 2.4% during the month to an annual rate of 3.73 million units but increased 3.3% from June 2025. Total housing inventory edged down 0.6% from May to 1.56 million units, while rising 1.3% year-over-year, representing a 4.6-month supply of unsold homes, up from 4.5 months in May and unchanged from a year earlier. The median existing-home price climbed to a record $440,600, up 1.8% from June 2025 and marking the 36th consecutive month of annual price gains. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said the month-to-month volatility in sales continues to reflect buyers' sensitivity to modest mortgage rate fluctuations, noting that while stronger wage growth has improved affordability, slowing inventory growth could place renewed upward pressure on home prices.