Introduction

Myanmar has endured over 80 years of conflict, stretching back to World War II and the country’s independence in 1948. This long, protracted conflict is deeply rooted in the legacy of colonial rule, which involved taking away land and resources and the imposition of administrative systems based on divisive lines. Like many post-colonial lands, Myanmar struggled to redefine itself as a country after the departure of imperial powers. However, post-independence Myanmar remains trapped in a cycle of conflict where a bad colonial government was replaced by bad new governments. Because the structural problems were never resolved, they have been passed down through generations, leading to the state failure and 'conflict trap' we face today.

Contextual analysis

The Military’s Survival Strategy

Over the last decades, the Myanmar military’s strategy has never been to solve the conflict, but only to 'manage' it. This is a key feature of the conflict trap. Any new government the military attempts to form will follow this same pattern: they lack the political will to address the root causes of the crisis. The military leadership operate under the belief that the Myanmar armed forces, known as the Tatmadaw or Sit-Tat, is the most resilient institution in the country and that, if they can prolong and control the patterns of conflict, they will ultimately win. This has been the military’s functioning logic for years, and it will not change with 'window dressing' tactics. It is clear that the current military regime has no intention of solving the conflict – only of continuing its own survival.

From a broader perspective, the reality is that the military has been weakening and becoming increasingly fragmented. Since the 2021 coup, in particular, it is evident that the military authorities can no longer maintain the same control they once held from the regime capital at Nay Pyi Taw. At the same time, the military has lost control over large areas among the Bamar-majority population in central Myanmar as well. This retreat is unprecedented in the country’s modern history.

Another major challenge for the Tatmadaw and any government that the generals attempt to form is their use of coercive power. They are forced to rely on the constant aerial bombardment of civilians to maintain a foothold. But for how long can they sustain this? In the end, this strategy will destroy them. By ruling through fear, they will never gain legitimacy nor accurate information, only entrenching a culture of corruption that is furthering misgovernance, state failure and national breakdown. The Tatmadaw leadership are attempting to counter with violence a new generation calling for social and political change, ensuring that the fighting – and the resulting suffering of the people – will only continue to increase.