Subject: Crisis in the Pa-O Region: A renewed conflict-zone in Myanmar

In this commentary, Khun Oo analyses the factors behind the ceasefire breakdown
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The ethnic Pa-O region in southern Shan State has been promoted as a ‘model’ ceasefire area by successive military governments in Myanmar. During the past two months, peace agreements have collapsed, and humanitarian emergency is spreading rapidly in the latest war-zone since the SAC coup. In this commentary, Khun Oo analyses the factors behind the ceasefire breakdown, the divisions in Pa-O society under military rule, and the patterns in conflict and displacement, arguing that solutions can only be found through inter-ethnic unity and the creation of a federal democratic state.

These commentaries are intended to contribute to a broader understanding of the many challenges facing the country and its peoples.

See the complete list of all the Myanmar commentaries.


Crisis in the Pa-O Region

A renewed conflict-zone in Myanmar

A Myanmar Commentary by Khun Oo

 Civilian buildings on fire after hit by airstrike, Hsihseng | Photo credit PYO

A background on Myanmar politics

The peoples of Burma gained independence from colonial rule in 1948, bringing together the Bamar (Burman) population in the central plains and ethnic nationalities in upland areas. But for over 75 years now, the national armed forces known as the Sit-Tat (Tatmadaw) have been relentlessly sabotaging both ethnic and national administrative systems in order to remain in power while promoting an admixture of fascism and Bamar-centred chauvinism. The 1947 and 1974 constitutions, as well as the current 2008 constitution drafted at the National Convention in Nyaung Hna Pin by the military, have all favoured centralised power and provide advantage to the Sit-Tat by such measures as more than 25 per cent of seats or representation in government, legislation and the judiciary system. Such powers allow the Sit-Tat to manipulate Myanmar’s politics and economy, a practice that is continued today by the military State Administration Council (SAC) which controls the Defence, Home and Border affairs ministries directly as well as dominating other government departments. 


A political impasse has long endured. After the 1988 pro-democracy uprising, the generals of the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) effectively staged a military coup, causing civil war to spread, and a people’s revolution was born due to the systematic terrorising activities of the military. In a forerunner of today, this led to the formation of a rival government, known as the National Coalition Government Union of Burma, inside and outside of the country which used international means to try and gain support for the democracy struggle. However, even though the ‘8888’ student-led movement initially had the momentum to stimulate the public in pressing for political change, a lack of leadership on the opposition side and the tactics of division, spies and heavy weaponry on the regime side meant that the Myanmar military remained ahead in the political game. Subsequently, the Sit-Tat created a proxy political party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), and the 2008 constitution to maintain its rule over the country. 


A quasi-civilian change came between 2011 and 2020 when the Myanmar military continued background rule on the country: first, with President Thein Sein’s USDP government and, subsequently, during the administration headed by State Councillor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the National League for Democracy (NLD), convincing the public as well as the international community to support the Sit-Tat in regime change. Instead, however, of focusing on national equality and the root causes of civil war, both the USDP and NLD administrations concentrated more on national reconciliation between the Bamar-majority people by focusing on prison releases and amnesties from crimes committed by the military. At the same time, after discussion between these parties and the Sit-Tat, they started engaging on talks with ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) under the name of ‘peace’. But military leaders focused more on amending the 2008 constitution during these exchanges rather than creating a new federal constitution.


This lack of reform also continued during 2015-2020 when the government was led by NLD, and the importance of ethnic equality, nationality affairs and federal democracy was further marginalised. In essence, the collaboration between the majority-Bamar parties in government and the peace process undermined ethnic nationalities in political reform instead of building a genuine federal system. 


After the 2021 coup, civil war again broke out throughout the country. The military SAC gave the reason that the election was a fraud. But this did not stop the public from protesting in the streets, with peaceful demonstrations met with violent crackdowns leading people to defend themselves. As a result of the coup, human rights abuses, political repression and armed conflict aroused a nationwide response. 


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