Supplemental Info:
The President's announcement came via a post to Truth Social:
"The United States of America has successfully carried out a large scale strike against Venezuela and its leader, President Nicolas Maduro, who has been, along with his wife, captured and flown out of the Country. This operation was done in conjunction with U.S. Law Enforcement. Details to follow. There will be a News Conference today at 11 A.M., at Mar-a-Lago. Thank you for your attention to this matter!"
-- Original ---
Multiple loud explosions—at least seven—were reported in Caracas, accompanied by low-flying aircraft, flashes, smoke, power outages in southern suburbs, and siren-like alarms.
Unconfirmed social media reports speculate U.S. airstrikes or special operations involving Chinook helicopters, aligning with President Trump's campaign against narco-infrastructure.
No official confirmation from U.S. or Venezuelan authorities yet; mainstream outlets are reporting the incidents but await verification.
Maduro retains military backing amid economic collapse and opposition calls for change led by figures like María Corina Machado.
POTENTIAL HOMELAND IMPACT
The primary risks to the U.S. homeland stem from asymmetric retaliation rather than conventional military confrontation. Venezuela's armed forces lack the capability for direct power projection against the continental United States, but the regime's alliances with Iran, Russia, China, and non-state actors like Hezbollah introduce plausibly deniable threats.
Terrorism via Proxies: The most credible homeland threat arises from Iranian-backed Hezbollah networks, which have maintained a longstanding presence in Venezuela and the region for illicit financing, money laundering, and potential operational staging. Venezuela has historically facilitated Hezbollah activities, including passport issuance to operatives and access to training sites on Margarita Island. In retaliation for U.S. intervention, Iran could activate these networks to conduct attacks on U.S. regional interests. While no large-scale Hezbollah attacks have occurred within the U.S., the proximity of Venezuela (less than 1,500 miles from Miami) and embedded operatives raise the risk of lone-wolf or small-cell operations, potentially targeting Jewish communities, diplomatic facilities, or critical infrastructure.
This risk is compounded by Iran's persistent, state-directed campaigns to assassinate current and former U.S. officials on American soil, primarily in retaliation for the 2020 killing of IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani, with multiple disrupted plots since 2021 involving murder-for-hire schemes against figures such as President Trump and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Although these efforts have largely relied on criminal networks rather than direct Hezbollah operatives, an escalation triggered by U.S. actions in Venezuela could prompt Tehran to leverage its more capable proxy for deniable, high-impact strikes against government targets.
Transnational Criminal Spillover: Regime-linked cartels, such as the Cartel de los Soles and Tren de Aragua (recently designated as terrorist entities), could intensify violence directed at U.S. borders. Escalation could potentially involve increased gang operations in U.S. cities, the targeting of elected officials, etc..
Cyber Attacks: Venezuela possesses limited indigenous cyber capabilities, often augmented by Russian and Chinese technical support (e.g., surveillance systems and disinformation tools). Retaliatory cyber operations could target U.S. energy grids, financial systems, or election infrastructure, though these would likely be low-to-moderate sophistication. Russian proxies might amplify such efforts indirectly, using Venezuelan networks for attribution obfuscation, as seen in past disinformation campaigns.
