Subject: Mountain Shadows Opening Soon, Arizona Jobs Booming, Interest Rates, and Home Equity - Luxury Homes Weekly

Luxury Homes Weekly
351st Edition - Mar 18, 2017
The latest statistics point to continued strength in the Phoenix housing market. Specifically, the latest jobs report shows the Phoenix metro area gaining over 115k jobs through Q2 2018. More jobs means more demand for housing.

As of February, single-family home sales are up 14% -- while the number of homes for sale is down 5%. More demand and less supply points to a robust year ahead for housing. 

The Fed voted to increase interest rates by 25 basis points this past Wednesday, which was widely expected by financial markets. More rate hikes are likely. Jim Grant of Grant's Interest Rate Observer did a noteworthy interview on CNBC about inflation. Spoiler alert: there may be more inflation than the government statistics suggest.

Normally one would consider increasing interest rates a headwind for housing. However, at the moment they're having the opposite effect, and creating more demand. Many buyers who have been on the fence are realizing this may be the last opportunity to lock in historically low interest rates.

***

Home equity in the United States has surpassed the previous peak. This could be considered an ominous sign, but for the distribution of that equity:

"borrowers with a current FICO score below 700 were the largest class in 2006 and borrowers with a score above 780 accounted for the smallest proportion of borrowers. However, by 2016 the composition switched. Borrowers with a score below 700 are the smallest share of borrowers while those with a score exceeding 780 are now the largest."

We certainly aren't experiencing the froth of the last cycle today. Real estate will likely plod along for the next several years, making modest and consistent gains. I'd be content to see real estate be neither the most exciting, nor the most dangerous, asset class. Slow and steady is what real estate has been over the long term, and the craziness of 10 years ago was an anomaly. In any case, it's noteworthy that the equity is back after that long downturn.

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The new Mountain Shadows resort is scheduled to open in two weeks. Occupying some of most prominent real estate in Paradise Valley, it's sure to regain its prominence after its long closure. 

I must profess a sentimental attachment to Mountain Shadows, it was where my family stayed when I first visited Arizona over 30 years ago. 

The Paradise Valley Independent has in-depth coverage about the history of its redevelopment, and what we can expect when it reopens.

***

UK newspaper The Guardian gave Phoenix's restaurants much deserved acknowledgement. We may only be starting to be recognized as a "foodie city" but it's long overdue. As a long time board member of the Phoenix chapter of the International Wine & Food Society, I can attest to the great talent of our local chefs.
At 3401 E Claremont, you'll find a charming Santa Barbara style home on a quiet street. There's a large circular drive, mature landscaping with tall trees and well manicured plants. Stroll into the courtyard and you'll be greeted by a fountain.

When you open the front door the first thing you will notice is the light, bright, large open floor plan. You can cook in the kitchen while everyone enjoys television in the family room or studies at the dining room table. The entire area is perfect for entertaining, opens up to the giant backyard with lush landscaping, a large pool, travertine pavers, a play set, fireplace, BBQ, and dual outdoor shower.

There are 2 garages at this exceptional home, for a total of 7 garage bays -- including a 5 car air-conditioned garage with a workshop. The owner also has plans for a third garage, which would bring the parking up to 10 cars.

The master suite was built in 2011, has very high ceilings and includes a sitting area, work area, gym, and a HUGE CLOSET. There is a second master suite which would make for a very large secondary bedroom, and is big enough to be a media room or play room. The office is just off the family room, and the kids bedrooms are on the opposite side of the home from the master.

The separate guest house is cozy and inviting, looking on to the trees and grass of the well-manicured backyard. It has a kitchenette, full bath, and sitting area so guests will be very comfortable.

There is tremendous value in this single-level home on a quiet street with 5 bedrooms plus a gym, office, and guest house for under $1.5 million. It's one of the most charming homes, and best values, in all of Paradise Valley.

Please reply to schedule a tour, or click here to see pictures.
Best Homes on Market

The best of the best in their respective categories, selected for quality and/or value.

Paradise Valley
2015 build with mountain views and high quality finishes, and no HOA. Chef's kitchen with large butler's pantry, custom wood and stone throughout the house, high ceilings. Offered under $2.7 million. 

Arcadia/Biltmore
New construction in gated community, with views of Camelback Mountain. This 5 bedroom home with vaulted ceilings and bright, open spaces is offered at just under $3 million.

Scottsdale
"Lock and leave" home in Silverleaf. This home boasts a spacious interior with 5 bedrooms, but sits on a small lot requiring little maintenance. It's tough to get a quality home in Silverleaf under $1.7 million.

Deal of the Week
Bank foreclosure: remodeled home in an excellent Paradise Valley neighborhood, listed at just $246 per square foot. This is likely to sell quickly, please call or text me at (480) 442-7325 to arrange a showing.

COMING SOON
Spectacular 7 bedroom home (configured as 5 bedrooms plus office and gym) with tasteful contemporary finishes.

Dream kitchen, wine cellar, high ceilings, and more closet space than you've ever seen (even the guest bedrooms).

Massive open spaces for indoor and outdoor entertaining, deep covered patios, theater grade surround sound, and mature, lush landscaping.

All for under $2.4 million!

Not on MLS, available exclusively here. This is so new we don't even have pictures. If you're interested, please reply for photos and details as they become available.
Active Buyer Needs

Perhaps you've been thinking of selling your home, or know someone who is?

Here's what some of my clients are looking for right now:
  • Medium Size Contemporary Home in Scottsdale or Paradise Valley, looking for highest quality finishes (e.g. Bulthaup kitchen) in the 3,000 - 3,500 square foot range, priced under $1.5 million.
  • Formal Mediterranean Custom Home in Paradise Valley, approximately 7-8,000 square feet with views, up to $5 million. New construction strongly preferred.
  • Hillside Contemporary Home with guest quarters in Paradise Valley or Biltmore. City views, high level of finish, and preferably in gated community or privately gated property - up to $4 million.
If you know of anything, please reply to this email or call my direct line at (480) 442-7325.
Home Inventory

Paradise Valley
77 New Listings 
30 Homes Sold 
Average Sale: $1.5 million - $332 per square foot - 173 days on market

Arcadia/Biltmore
50 New Listings
11 Homes Sold
Average Sale: $1.6 million - $352 per square foot - 113 days on market

Scottsdale
168 New Listings
70 Homes Sold
Average Sale: $1.6 million - $333 per square foot - 207 days on market

Please note the data above covers the past 30 days of luxury homes, defined as follows: any single-family home in Paradise Valley, and all residences in Scottsdale, Arcadia, and Biltmore listed over $950k. 

Active Listings

There are many thousands of listings on LuxeAZ.com. To help you find what you're looking for quickly:
Please note that listings are sorted from newest to oldest. So you may bookmark these pages and return at any time to see the very latest listings.
Thank you for reading this newsletter. Your comments and suggestions are always appreciated, and will be used to improve future editions.

I'll be back in next week with all the latest news and analysis.

Sincerely,
Alex


The bestselling book about real estate that's gotten rave reviews from readers all across the country. Topics include:
  • Selling your home for top dollar
  • Demystifying housing statistics
  • Critical elements of successful negotiating
  • Closing and escrow explained in Plain English
  • Financing, with or without a bank
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A frank examination of real estate and business by Alex Goldstein and Brian Tracy. 

Negotiating in good and bad markets, insider secrets from the real estate industry, and much more.

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