Hi Folks.
Welcome to what I think will be a mercifully short Forecast this week. Since launching the Mean Marsi package on Thursday evening, I have spent more than 25 hours over 4 days answering emails and my fingers no longer have any feeling in the tips. Luckily the calendar is cooperating with some very quiet days ahead so I might not need my usual 3 hours + to get this written. And if you have not seen any of my emails and have no idea what the Mean Marsi package is, head over to https://simplicators.com/meanmarsi and check it out.
Ok, end of commercial. On with the forecast.
SUNDAY: At 7:50 p.m. my time Japan drops a bunch of numbers with their Final GDP the one that will move things around if they move at all. Being the "final" number means traders already have some idea of what to expect from the "preliminary" number a few days back, so this one isn't the bombshell number you might expect. But the Final GDP has been known to generate 20-25 pips on occasion, and with all the other lesser numbers thrown into the mix, tonight might actually be worth trading, or at a minimum, watching.
MONDAY: Asian/London Session: Today's number represent the classic "it's time to take out the trash" report release scenario, as none of the numbers, morning or evening, are designed to move things around even a little, much less the 20 pips or so we like to see on a regular basis before we deem one of these numbers worth trading. The closest we get to a number worth trading is the Japanese Money Stock y/y number at 7:50 p.m. my time. And it falls short of 20 pips (barely some months, but dramatically short on others) so if you absolutely positively have to trade something off this list today, the evening Japanese number is your best bet in a bad lot.
USA Session: 3:00 p.m. Consumer Credit m/m. I have gone back and looked and cannot find a single instance where price moved off this number alone. Hard Pass.
TUESDAY: Asian/London Session: Do you remember yesterday how I mentioned that the numbers set for release were the equivalent of a bunch of government agencies taking out the trash? Today's numbers are what happens when you throw a match in that trash can. A complete dumpster fire. Not a single number comes out that is worth looking at. Pass on the entire session
USA Session: At 6:00 a.m., before anyone cares, the NFIB Small Business Index number drops. Everyone is still asleep when it happens. Pass. At 4:30 the Oil Industry releases their API Weekly Statistical Bulletin (not a number). Everyone has already gone home. Pass.
WEDNESDAY: Asian/London Session: This is getting repetitive. Yet again, the A/L session disappoints completely. There is some Swiss Fed Speak on calendar at 7:45 a.m. my time (Schlegel speaking on the subject of "Communication" at some banker's meeting in Lugano) and the New Zealand Fed Governor Hawkesby is speaking at 7:15 p.m. at one of those "fireside chat" things Feds all over the world love to do. But from a numbers standpoint, forget about it (or fuhgeddaboudit). Pass.
USA Session: Finally, a number worth trading (and it only took 3 days to get here). PPI leads us off at 8:30 a.m. (instead of tagging along behind CPI) and when that happens, we usually see more price action on this number. Maybe not as much as we would see when CPI leads us off, but still enough to make this well worth trading this morning. And add in the complete lack of tradeable numbers in any session so far this week, it could be a 100 pip mover. Probably not, but it's still worth the trade. After that we get Final wholesale Inventories at 10:00 (pass), Crude Oil at 10:30 and the 10 year Bond Auction at 1:01 p.m. None of the later stuff matters except Oil to the Oil traders. The rest is a Pass.
THURSDAY: Asian/London Session: We finally get something worth trading during the A/L session as well. The Euros release their Interest Rate Decision at 8:15 a.m., and they are expected to leave their current rate (2.15%) alone this time. It should still generate some tradeable price action, at least short term, and the press conference at 8:45 a.m. might add a little fuel to the price action fire. After that we get the New Zealand BusinessNZ Manufacturing Index m/m number at 6:30 p.m., and that one never generates more than 5-6 pips in the 30 minutes after it drops, so pass. And when I said at the beginning this week's calendar was mercifully short, this is what I was talking about. This session encompasses numbers dropping from major economies covering the globe and the best they could muster today was 2 numbers total. But what the hell. That just means less typing for me.
USA Session: Yesterday was PPI at 8:30, today is CPI at 8:30, along with Weekly Unemployment Claims. The Fed is watching both numbers, and with their meeting set for next week, traders will be hanging on this one for dear life. Even though when CPI follows PPI it ends up a little muted compared to when it drops first, I think the impact this could have on the pending Interest Rate Decision next week will all but guarantee a whole lot of price action. After the CPI/Unemployment numbers, we get NatGas at 10:30, the 30 year Bond Auction at 1:01 and the Federal Budget Balance at 2:00 p.m. But make no mistake. Today is all about the 8:30 numbers.
FRIDAY: Asian/London Session: Another dumpster fire night for the A/L numbers, EXCEPT for British GDP at 2:00 a.m., along with about a half dozen lesser numbers. Last month this one fell a little short at 14 pips after release, but prior to that it was a solid 20-35 pip performer. So keep an eye on this one if you trade the London session. After this is the rest of the dumpster fire fuel from all over. Today is all about GBP GDP.
USA Session: All we have today is the Preliminary UofM Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations numbers. I've never been a fan of these numbers because of the methodology involved, but lately the preliminary numbers have been pushing the EURUSD around a bit. Last month followed the same pattern as the GBP GDP, just above, posting a 14 pip move after release, but in the months prior we saw 20-25 pips in the 30 minutes following release. Probably worth a watch since there is literally nothing else dropping during this session today.
And that, as they say, is that. See you back here next week for the Fed Fireworks edition.
Jeff
