Hi Folks.
After jumping the gun a bit last week, now welcome to the LAST Econ Forecast for January, 2026. It really seems like only yesterday some of my stupider neighbors were blowing their Social Security checks on giant boxes of fireworks they used to light up the night (and early morning) sky on New Year's Eve/New Year's Day. And yes, you can buy fireworks in Florida that would make Joe Dirt cross-eyed, including unlimited whistling kitty chasers. Hard to believe Valentine's Day is just right around the corner.
This coming week is likely going to be a little schizo. Monday, Tuesday and the first half of Wednesday will have every right to be dead boring, but at 2 p.m. on Wednesday the US Fed will release the results of their Interest Rate meeting. There is about a Zero Percent chance they will do anything except stand pat, but traders are going to tighten up before the meeting and afterwards, well, hopefully Wednesday afternoon, Thursday and Friday will be a little more active.
But aside from the Fed decision, the rest of the week looks pretty quiet for the most part, so this forecast is going to be a little shorter than it should be.
So away we go.
SUNDAY: Nothing, although the wonks at FF are kind enough to point out that today (Monday, local time) Australian banks are closed for some unnamed holiday. (Note: After some diligent research...namely asking Google "Why are banks closed in Australia tomorrow" followed by "what is Australia Day all about?") it's the Australian equivalent to the American 4th of July, only in reverse, because we celebrate kicking Britain to the curb while Australia Day celebrates the arrival of the first British colonizing ships (carrying prisoners for their new Penal Colony, at least according to Wikipedia). Wiki also notes the British felt such colonization was necessary after being summarily tossed out of the 13 American colonies. So, sorry Australia. This one looks like it might be our fault as well.
MONDAY: Asian/London Session: It's almost like they knew the Fed was waiting in the wings for Wednesday so they decided to flood this session with absolutely worthless numbers. The only one even worth even mentioning is Nagel from the German Buba is speaking at some club event (likely one of those rubber chicken lunches) at 6:00 a.m. my time (noon, locally) and then again in front of the Bundestag at 8:30 a.m. (2:30 p.m. locally). All the other numbers are forgettable.
USA Session: At 8:30 a.m. we get the Durable Goods Orders (Core and Overall). July and December's numbers are the only two that missed by a little. The other ten months missed by wide margins. But sometimes the charts showed some decent 20+ pip moves, and other times you had to refresh your charts to make sure you still had a connection, price action was so slow. This one can come through for you unexpectedly, and it is the only halfway decent number dropping in the first 24 hours after market open. So be ready on this one (which also pulls double duty as the ONLY numbers dropping during the US session).
TUESDAY: Asian/London Session: We open with what you would think would be a good number, the Japanese (BOJ) Core CPI y/y number. But if you think that, you thought wrong. This one is consistently in the 11-14 pip range in the 15 minutes after release, so Pass. Spanish Unemployment at 3:00 a.m. is an easy Pass, Buba President Nagel jabbering at noon is a Pass, and the Japanese Monetary Policy Minutes dropping at 6:50 is a report and not a number, so also an easy Pass. Which then brings us to the Australian CPI in all its various iterations at 7:30 p.m., and like all the other CPI numbers that don't have the initials USD or GBP in front of them, this one routinely posts 9-13 pips in the 30 minutes after release. So yet another in a long line of Pass decisions.
USA Session: We start with a pair of Tentatives: That Weekly ADP Unemployment Number, which FF began featuring when the Shutdown robbed them of the official number for a few weeks. This one is a 10 pip mover just about every week, so tentative aside, just Pass. The other tentative is a speech from President Trump, and much like Fed Speak (only much more entertaining) there isn't much we can do with it aside from remembering it's out there if we are trading the US open. After that it's a bunch of crap numbers: a pair of Housing numbers at 9:00 (Pass), Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Richmond Manufacturing Index at 10:00 (also a Pass), and the Weekly Oil report at 4:30 (Pass).
WEDNESDAY: Asian/London Session: Morning and evening session numbers are all hot garbage and can be easily and safely ignored, except for the Canadian Interest Rate statement at 9:45 a.m. The general consensus is Canada will stand pat at 2.25% this time around. It likely won't matter. Raise, drop or stand pat, this one moves the Loonie around enough to make the trade worth taking. So don't miss out on this one if at all possible. It's about the only decent thing to trade for the entire A/L session.
USA Session: Crude Oil at 10:30 is only of interest to Oil traders. Then at 2:00 p.m. is the Big Kahuna: The Fed Open Market Committee decision on Interest rates. Like the CADs from earlier in the morning, the Fed is also expected to stand pat at 3.75%. And also like the CADs, it won't matter because the markets have likely been winding up like a spring in anticipation of this data and you'll see some decent trades after the release, and even more decent trades once the press conference begins at 2:30 p.m. This is one where the best trades seem to set up during the presser, so if you need to wait until 2:30 to start trading, you really shouldn't be at any sort of disadvantage.
THURSDAY: Asian/London Session: Once again the morning session looks like somebody dumped the contents of an economic dumpster right onto the calendar page for Thursday, at least for the early session. When you get to the evening portion of our program, things would appear to perk up, at least on the surface. Tokyo Core CPI y/y at 6:30 followed by Australian PPI q/q at 7:30 are both numbers that should at least maybe move prices around enough to justify the risk of trading. But the Tokyo number's last 3 entries were 7, 7, and 2 pips, so an easy Pass, and the Australian PPI number posted 8, 4, and 7 pips, so yet another Pass.
USA Session: Unemployment at 8:30, which has done nothing for price action for months now, then a bunch of nothing numbers that are also part of the catch-up program, posting numbers that are 2 weeks to 2 months late, so nothing to worry about here, and Nat Gas at 10:30 p.m. Hopefully we see some carryover price action from yesterday's Fed decision, because the news on tap for the day isn't going to move the needle even slightly.
FRIDAY: Asian/London Session: Somewhere around 20 entries on calendar for this session, and they are all essentially useless. In fact, we are seeing a lot of Country-specific CPI and GDP numbers show up (and we rarely see them anywhere at any time), yet they just don't move their respective currencies around at all. So don't let all the CPI and GDP entries fool you. It's all window dressing. Literally not a single thing worth trading this session.
USA Session: And the US session isn't any better. We lead off with a PPI number that is 2 weeks late. Why they couldn't post this with the other PPI numbers last week is beyond me. All these late posts landing months after the end of the shutdown have a real "the dog ate my homework" feel to them. Just a bunch of 6 figure bureaucrats so busy cashing checks they just can't find the time to knock out a set of current numbers. Chicago PMI is an automatic Pass at 9:45 a.m. and we close out the day with Fed Speak at 12:30 p.m.
I warned you this was going to be shorter than you would think if you looked at the calendar in advance. This week was quantity over quality. Fingers crossed we get a little more quality next week. See you then.
Jeff
