Hi Folks.
Here is this week's forecast, and if it seems to be a little longer than normal, that's because we had 129 entries spread out over 5 days (no entries for Sunday as you will see). That's about twice what we usually get. My overall feeling is that we will actually see some real price action all week, instead of at the end of the week as we just experienced. So fingers crossed, we may be entering a very good time for trading.
Here are the details.
SUNDAY: As I just mentioned, there is nothing on the FF calendar for tonight. Not even the Chinese stuff they seem so fond of.
MONDAY: Asian/London Session: That means we start the week off with Spanish CPI at 3:00 a.m., which last month moved the E/U a grand total of 10 pips in the 30 minutes post-release, and that was actually more price action than usual. So Pass. At 4:30 the Brits have that M4 Money Supply/Mortgage Approvals/Net Lending to Individuals numbers that come out together each month and they too rarely are behind more than a 10 pip move. So Pass here as well. Some Fed Speak scattered around at 5:00 a.m. and 8:00 a.m., then the evening session begins with the Brits again and that BRC Shop Price Index number which is another GB number that just doesn't move the Pound (which may explain why it drops at midnight UK time). 8:00 a.m. brings the Japanese Summary of Opinions, which is a report and not a number, so not much we can do with that, and the two which are numbers, Preliminary Industrial Production and Retail Sales, are also not known as price movers. So pass. The 8:00 p.m. New Zealand ANZ Business Conference and the 9:30 a.m. Australian Building Approvals m/m and Private Sector Credit m/m are just filler numbers. So essentially the entire session, morning and evening, looks like one big Pass.
USA Session: 6 entries. 10:00 a.m. is Pending Home Sales, which has been a Pass for as long back as I can remember, and 5 Fed Speaks, at 7:30 a.m., 8:00 a.m., 1:30 p.m. (2 of them) and 6:00 p.m. I am beginning to re-think my earlier comment about this being a good week. Maybe a good 4 days might be more accurate because today looks like it could end up being a bust, at least scheduled news-wise.
TUESDAY: Asian/London Session: We waste no time today, starting with the Australian Interest Rate decision, which the forecasters believe will remain at 3.60%. Lately, meaning the last couple of times we've seen this one hit the wires, we've also seen 20+ pip of movement after the fact. So this might be the start of a good day. Pay attention if you trade the AUD. They also have a presser set for 1:30 a.m. which may or may not cause the AUD to keep moving long after the effect of the rate announcement has worn off. At 1:00 a.m. Japan releases Housing Starts, which is not that big a deal in a country that has more than a million empty houses sitting around waiting for a new owner. At 2:00 a.m. we get German Import Prices and Retail Sales for the EUR and Current Account/Final GDP and Revised Business Investment q/q for the GBP. None of these are considered all that big a deal and subsequent price action after release proves that out. Pass all the way around. In fact, the rest of the morning numbers during this session are just fillers and can be safely ignored. And on top of that we have a bunch of Euro Session Fed Speak at 7:50 a.m., 8:50 a.m. (that one is LaGarde so maybe pay attention for the next 30+ minutes just in case), 9:25 a.m., 11:30 a.m., 1:00 p.m. (Nagel from the German Buba so again, maybe pay attention); Canada has a bank holiday so nothing from them today; the 5:45 p.m. New Zealand number (Building Consents m/m) won't move prices at all. 7:50 p.m. brings us the Tankan Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing (meaning Services???) Index numbers, and aside from a 30 pip spike 2 months back, this one regularly checks in at less than 20 pips after release. And the Final Manufacturing PMI, also out of Japan at 8:30 p.m., doesn't even do that much. So you can skip the evening session based on news alone.
USA Session: 10 numbers, 4 of which are Fed Speak at 6:00 a.m., 9:00 a.m., 1:30 p.m. and 7:10 p.m.. As for the real numbers, a pair of Housing numbers (HPI m/m and S&P/CS Composite Index) have no significant history of being behind moves. Chicago PMI at 9:45 a.m. has been universally ignored for decades, so Pass. At 10:00 a.m. we get the JOLTS Job Openings paired with the Conference Board Consumer Confidence number. JOLTS almost always does better when paired with another number, but that other number is usually an ISM PMI number, which doesn't need as much help from elsewhere. That CB Consumer Confidence number isn't one of the bigger numbers we see on the regular, but maybe paired with JOLTS we'll see something happen that's worth trading. So be ready at 10:00 a.m. Lastly we get the weekly API Oil Report after the Oil market is all but done for the day, so basically a non-event.
WEDNESDAY: Asian/London Session: 2:00 a.m. brings us the British Nationwide Housing Price Index and 2:30 the Australian Commodity Prices y/y and Swiss Retail Sales y/y. Ignore all three. Then we get the PMI Parade, Manufacturing this time, with Spain 3:15 a.m., Switzerland 3:30 a.m., Italy 3:45 a.m., France 3:50 a.m., Germany 3:55 a.m., Eurozone 4:00 a.m., Great Britain 4:30 a.m. and Canada 9:30 a.m. Look for a trend and trade the trend, but otherwise the individual numbers can be ignored. EUR has their CPI Flash Estimates (Core and Overall) at 5:00 a.m., and two of the last three months have posted 20+ pip moves after the release, so this one might be worth trading. Euro session Fed Speak at 5:55 a.m., 7:00 a.m. (this one once again is Nagel from the German Buba, so at least be aware he's speaking if you are trading pre-New York open), and 2:05 p.m. At 1:30 p.m. the Bank of Canada releases their Summary of Deliberations, which is another report, not a number, but worth reading if you are a CAD trader. At 7:50 p.m. Japan drops their Monetary Base y/y number, which measures the amount of actual currency in circulation along with cash held in bank accounts, and you would think this is the sort of thing that might help decide if an economy is in an inflationary or deflationary cycle and thus have some impact on currency values. And that may be true but you are hard pressed to find a month where the release was linked to much more than a 12-15 pip move. Pass. The remaining numbers for the night have little to no impact on their respective currencies and can be safely ignored.
USA Session: An odd session today. A couple of decent numbers to work with and no Fed Speak. We start at 8:15 a.m. with the ADP Non-Farm Payroll number, which lately has done little in terms of moving prices around but at least we get a possible sneak peak at what direction the NFP will head on Friday morning. At 9:45 a.m. we get the fake Final Manufacturing PMI number (no one cares) followed at 10:00 a.m. by the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which everyone cares about ( we also get the ISM Manufacturing Prices and Construction Spending). The ISM number has been pretty reliable in terms of moving things around after release, so this is one you definitely want to be ready for. Crude Oil is at 10:30 and that floating Ward's Total Vehicle Sales number floats in at a time of its own choosing. Nothing we can do with a floater.
THURSDAY: Asian/London Session: We start at 1:00 a.m. with Japanese Consumer Confidence, which only generates about 10 pips in the 30 minutes post release, so Pass. At 2:30 a.m. the Swiss release their CPI m/m number, which has generated 16, 27 and 13 pips over the last three releases. Maybe? It has the potential to move prices around some, and all three were misses in terms of expectations (two to the upside and one down) but there doesn't seem to be any correlation in terms of results and price action. Just be ready I guess. At 3:00, 4:00 and 5:00 a.m., we get Spanish, Italian and Eurozone Unemployment numbers. Nobody is employed in any of these places based on the numbers we see regularly, so the monthly release typically has no impact on prices. A couple of Bond Auctions are listed as "Tentative" so again, not much we can do there in any event. Canadian Fed Speak at 1:25 p.m. and Ueda from the Bank of Japan speaks at 9:05 p.m. (since he's on the level of Powell, Lagarde and Nagel, pay attention or at least remember he's out there talking if you are trading at this time of night).
USA Session: 7:30 a.m. is the Challenger Job Cuts, and the 7:30 a.m. release time tells you all you need to know. Pass. At 8:30 the Weekly Unemployment number makes a rare solo appearance...no other reports dropping at the same time to add fuel to whatever flames Unemployment might get started. It has not been the barn burner it was a year or two back, but the US session has not exactly been a hotbed of major numbers the last 2 weeks, so this one might have an outsized effect on price action solely due to the lack of any other options out there. Probably not when you consider NFP is tomorrow, but if traders are looking to flex a little bit, this is pretty much all they have to work with today. And to prove that point, for the rest of the day we have Factory Orders m/m at 10:00 a.m. (snore) and NatGas at 10:30 a.m. (along with a solo Fed Speaker).
FRIDAY: Asian/London Session: We start this lovely Fall Friday off with a German Bank Holiday (the third or fourth bank holiday on calendar this week...as I get older I find myself siding more and more with Ebenezer Scrooge..."Whaddya mean you're taking Christmas Eve AND Christmas Day off??? Slackers!!!) For real numbers begin at 3:15 (yes, I know I passed on mentioning the French Industrial number at 2:45...you should pass on it too!) as we get the missing Services PMI numbers to go along with the Manufacturing versions from earlier this week. Spain 3:15 a.m., Italy 3:45 a.m., France 3:50 a.m., Germany 3:55 a.m., Eurozone 4:00 a.m. (along with Italian Unemployment and the comments I made yesterday about the other Euro unemployment numbers go double for Italy today), and Great Britain 4:30 a.m.. Look for a trend. No trend = No trade. Eurozone PPI at 5:00 a.m. is a solid 10 pip mover, so unless you like high risk, low return trades, Pass. We close the session with a couple of heavy hitter Fed Speakers: LaGarde from the Euro Fed at 5:40 a.m. and Bailey from the Bank of England at 9:20 a.m. As usual, you can't really trade these speeches but you need to know they are out there, particularly these two, if you're trading the late morning session.
USA Session: Non Farm Payroll at 8:30, along with Average Hourly earnings and the overall Unemployment Rate. The High Holy Day of Trading (one of three, anyway). So be ready. We close out the day at 9:45 a.m. with the highly ignorable Final Services PMI followed by the 10:00 a.m. ISM Services PMI, which would likely have a significant impact as being a legitimate Red Folder number dropping at 10:00 a.m. on a Friday, if this particular Friday were NOT Non Farm Payroll day. You will likely see some activity here, but probably not like what you saw 90 minutes earlier. We close with the obligatory Fed Speak list at 6:05 a.m. (Williams is speaking in Amsterdam) and 1:40 p.m. (Jefferson is speaking in Philadelphia and probably wishing he were Williams right about now).
That's it for a very long week of news. See you back here next week.
Jeff
