Hi Folks.

So Friday (Dec. 5th, aka the First Friday of the Month) came and went without an NFP release. Since the BLS had it still listed last week as a 12-5 report, I was more than a little surprised we didn't see the number, so I went back into the Google Machine and ran some more search terms (my favorite being "where the hell was the NFP this morning") and eventually turned up an article from some blog/newsletter I'd never heard of saying this month's NFP would be bundled with last month's and released on December 16th.

A quick check of the FF calendar for 12-16 showed NFP coming out on Wednesday, mid-month. And a further examination of the calendar showed the missing CPI reports will drop 2 days later on Friday the 18th.  All of it just in time for the Fed Interest Rate Decision on December 10th.

Wait.

What?

That's right.

The NFP and CPI, two of the most important gauges of economic health in the country, are on a timed delay to come out a week or more AFTER the Fed makes its Rate Decision.

If I was a conspiracy theorist, I'd have my tinfoil hat firmly on my head right now and be ready to accuse the powers that be of trying to pull off some slight of hand trick on all of America.

And I just bought a new roll of tinfoil for Thanksgiving, so...

But this is such a drastic departure from the norm that I am at a loss for coming up with any sort of reasonable explanation.

But it does look like this week's somewhat quiet calendar will be the last for a little while, as there are a bunch of bigger numbers finally reappearing on the calendar after the Fed cuts the rate one more time (as 98% of economists who were polled believe they will do).

So just in time for the holidays, we might actually see some real price action for a few sessions before everyone heads home for a couple of weeks.

So on with this week's forecast.

SUNDAY: Japan dominates the Sunday night news entirely with the Average Cash Earnings y/y number at 6:30 p.m. my time, followed by Bank Lending y/y, Current Account, Final GDP Price Index y/y and Final GDP q/q, all at 6:50 p.m. Not a single one of those is likely to cause any of the Yen pairs to move much, if at all, particularly on a Sunday night when 80%  of the trading world is asleep or watching Sunday Night Football. So yet another Sunday night long on numbers and short on price action.

MONDAY:  Asian/London Session: Unfortunately the Sunday night malaise will carry over into the Monday session, at least the early part. None of the numbers from midnight through 7:30 p.m. (and there are a few) are designed to move chart prices around. However, at 10:30 p.m. Australia releases their Interest Rate Decision, and these tend to be worth looking at. Unless they are from Australia and the RBA is expected to and does leave the rate at 3.60% as they have done the last three times.  This led to 11, 10 and 8 pips worth of price action in the 30 minutes after release, so an easy Pass.

          USA Session: One day we are going to come upon a US session filled to the brim with important numbers that cause prices to fly in both directions all over the charts. Today is not that day.  We do not have a single entry on our calendar.  Oh well.  Maybe tomorrow.

TUESDAY:  Asian/London Session: One more in a growing string of sad sessions for the A/L traders. Japan's Preliminary Machine Tool Orders at 1:00 p.m. and Europe's German Trade Balance at 2 p.m. are non-movers from way back. Pass. Nagel from the German Buba and Ueda from the BOJ speak at 3 and 4 a.m. respectively, and both lead their respective banks, so this puts them at Powell/Lagarde levels. Pay attention if you are trading the EUR or JPY during this time frame.  Great Britain holds some Monetary Policy Report hearings at 9:15 a.m., which again is likely not tradeable but can easily create havoc in the markets, so be careful here as well.  After that, New Zealand has Fed Speak at 4:10 p.m., followed by their Visitor Arrivals m/m number, which does nothing for price action. Lastly, Japan releases their PPI y/y number.  The last 3 numbers were 5, 17 and 10 pips, so not worth the risk of a trade. Pass.

          USA Session: So half of yesterday's prayer came true today. We have 5 calendar entries. Whether they make price go zoom or not is an entirely different story.  We start with the NFIB Small Business Index number at 6 a.m., and since it drops when almost all of the US is in bed it's a safe Pass. After that we get the ADP Weekly Employment Change, and if you're wondering when did the ADP switch to a weekly number instead of the monthly version that drops the Wednesday before the NFP release, join the club. It really doesn't matter, because it's still on calendar for today. How will price react?  Tune in and find out.  Given the lack of trader interest in the monthly version, my hopes are not high for the weekly number. But given the shenanigans surrounding the NFP right now, maybe traders will switch allegiances.  I guess we'll all know for sure a few minutes after whenever this one drops (it's listed as Tentative). Two JOLTS numbers will drop at 10:00 a.m., one for September and one for, when? This month?  Last month?  Who knows. The notes say the second number is for October, which would have dropped in November. But that means they still owe us another JOLTS for last month.  Maybe it will appear later this month when everyone is gone for the holidays. Who knows? (I hate it when I have to say "who knows" a half dozen times for the same session). At 1:01 p.m. it's the 10 year Bond Auction (a non event for us) and at 4:30 it's that weekly Oil Report no one cares about. So lots of numbers and little or no impact, or so it appears. Who knows?

WEDNESDAY:  Asian/London Session: Italian Industrial Production you can ignore at 4:00 a.m., along with the "tentative" 10 year Bond Auction out of Great Britain. Lagarde from the ECB speaks at 5:55 a.m. and the usual Fed Speak rules apply, just more so because of who she is.  Then at 9:45 a.m. Canada releases their Interest Rate Decision, which is expected to be standing pat at 2.25% for at least one more session.  The last 3 Interest rate decisions generated 17, 19.6 and 16 pips. Flirting with my 20 pip rule but falling short all three times. So I would pass. You can make the call for yourself given how close this is, and if the Bank surprises with a cut instead of standing still, you'll probably end up rewarded.  But it's still a Pass in my book.  In the evening session the three numbers out of Japan, New Zealand and Great Britain are all solid Passes. Then we get to Australia's version of the NFP. Unfortunately this is a clear example of why we watch US numbers like the NFP and generally ignore everyone else's. Pip moves of 7, 8 and 10 over the next half hour after release make this version of the NFP a PASS.

          USA Session: So today we get the second half of the prayer answered.  We start with the Unemployment Cost Index q/q, which is a fairly new number covered by FF (and I think I've mentioned that the last couple of times it has appeared). Today's version is hampered by the fact it's 41 days late. Added to the problem is the fact that this one always comes out with some other Red Folder number like GDP or Core PCE. Today it's on its own, no help from anyone or anything else. Add those together and I will say it's a Pass, simply because price action in Fed Wednesdays is typically muted until after 2 p.m.  This is called foreshadowing...hinting at things to come. 10:30 is Crude Oil, which is only of interest to Crude Oil traders.  Then at 2 we get the Fed Interest Rate decision, expected to be a cut from 4.00% to 3.75%. Any other outcome will cause price action insanity, so be ready. If it lands on 3.75% we'll see some sort of action (and probably a lot more at the Press Conference 30 minutes later) but maybe not as much as usual given the approaching holidays. Don't worry about that tentative Federal Budget Balance. It will likely disappear again, but even if it drops in the afternoon, the Interest Rate decision will be what traders are trading.  

THURSDAY:  Asian/London Session: The Swiss release their Interest Rate decision at 3:30 a.m. and the last three numbers on the USDCHF were 40, 28 and 20.  So a definite Pay Attention as this is one of the few A/L session numbers likely to give you a shot at some decent gains. They have a press conference as well at 4:00 p.m. which is also the release time for the Italian Quarterly Unemployment rate number, which has slowly been dropping but is still not likely to move the EUR around much at all. Bailey from the BOE (think Powell/Lagarde/Ueda/Nagel) has a pre-recorded speech set to play at a tentative time in front of some group or another, and is due to testify at 5:00 a.m. about the impacts of COVID on the banking system. Can't really trade it but be aware he's lurking around out there. Canadian Trade Balance at 8:30 a.m,  New Zealand BusinessNZ Production m/m and Japan's Revised Industrial Production m/m numbers can all be ignored with no risk.

          USA Session: Weekly Unemployment Claims, along with the Trade Balance number, drop at 8:30 a.m. Last week was the first on-time Unemployment number we saw in 3 months, and it had zero impact on the charts I was watching. The EURUSD went 15 pips from tip to tip over the next 15 minutes but the candle ended up basically where it started before the number dropped. So probably not much to get excited about here. And that Trade Balance number is more than a month late, as is the Final Wholesale Inventories number at 10:00 a.m. So both can be ignored (which is what the market has always done to that Wholesale number since I started watching the news 20 years ago). NatGas at 10:30 followed by the 30 year Bond Auction at 1:01 p.m. are both on the perennial Pass list.

FRIDAY:  Asian/London Session: A ton of numbers at 2:00 a.m. starts off this Friday. You can safely ignore the German Final CPI number, but the Great Britain GDP m/m number has generated 15, 14, then 29 pips last month. The oldest 2 of the 3 months number came out on the nose, but for the 29 pip month, the CPI came in at -.1% as opposed to the .1% expected. So keep an eye on the actual number on this one and if it misses, you just might have a trade. All the numbers in both the morning and evening session after the 2:00 a.m. GDP are just junk, so don't bother and don't worry: none of them are going to do any damage one way or the other.

          USA Session: Just Fed Speak for the entire morning: Paulson at 8:00 a.m., Hammack at 8:30 a.m. and Goolsbee at 9:35 a.m.  A great day to sleep in or go back to bed if you got up early to trade the GBP GDP.

See you back here next week when the issue of "no good numbers" should not be an issue at all, at least for that week.

Jeff