Hi Folks.
Here is this week's forecast.
SUNDAY: A bit of an unusual start in that we have 8 calendar entries, beginning with both US and UK Fed Speak at 8:30 a.m., hours before the markets even open. The real numbers begin at 7:50 when Japan drops their Capital Spending q/y, which has generated a vaguely interesting 11, 18, and 16 pips over the last 3 releases. All below my 20 pip minimum, compounded by being a Sunday evening release. So Pass. The same goes for the Final Manufacturing PMI due out at 8:30 pm (alongside more US-based Fed Speak), simply because those generic PMI numbers rarely do anything noteworthy on their own. Australia brings this session to a close with the Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge m/m at 9:00 p.m., followed by the ANZ Job Advertisements m/m at 9:30 p.m. Neither has a history of creating more than 10 pips worth of action, so it's a double Pass on both.
MONDAY: Asian/London Session: The early session is just a collection of random useless numbers, including the Swiss GDP that drops at 3:00 (but has been a few minutes early on occasion). No matter. This one rarely posts more than 10 pips in the 1 Hour after release. Then we get the Final Manufacturing PMI from all around the A/L regions, starting with Spain at 3:15, Italy at 3:45 a.m., France at 3:50 a.m., Germany at 3:55 a.m., Eurozone at 4:00 (along with a couple of other nothing reports), Great Britain at 4:30 a.m., and Canada at 9:30 a.m. The standard rules apply: Trend = Trade, No Trend = No Trade. Canadian Fed Speak can be safely ignored at 12 noon, as can the Japanese Monetary Base y/y, which rarely cracks 10 pips on its best days. After that, at 9:30 p.m. Australia releases a handful of space filler numbers that do nothing for price action, the "tentative" Australian Private Sector Credit number isn't anything we can plan for, and Japan closes us out with a Bond Auction at 11:35 p.m. I have no ideas how or why we should try and trade that one. So Pass.
USA Session: We start with the fake Final Manufacturing PMI at 9:45 a.m., followed by the Real ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10:00 (you know, the one everyone trades instead of the fake one). This one can move things 20+ on occasion, but usually as part of a group of 2 or more Red Folder numbers like the JOLTS Job Openings and that ilk. Today all we get is the PMI along with Manufacturing Prices and Construction Spending. So maybe we'll see 20 or more today. I'm going into the 10:00 o'clock hour expecting good things.
TUESDAY: Asian/London Session: Another one of those sessions where they pad the numbers with garbage like French Budget Balance and Polish Hot Dog sales (okay, I made that up about Polish Hot Dogs, but that's kind of the quality of numbers we're dealing with today). The British threesome of M4 Money Supply, Mortgage Approvals, and Net Lending to Individuals, continues to fail to impress by rarely cracking 10 pips, and the same can be said of the Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate. Hard Pass. Bailey from the Bank of England is giving his twice yearly testimony before the House of Commons at 10:00 a.m. my time, and the rest of the session suffers from the problem of looking and sounding at least a little important but failing to impress traders even a little bit, and that includes the Australian GDP q/q, which has been a single digit pip performer for a very long time.
USA Session: We start with Fed Speak at 8:30 a.m., followed by the JOLTS Job Openings at 10:00 (and I'm guessing we would all be happier if this one dropped 24 hours earlier). Both the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism number along with Wards Total Vehicle Sales are tentative, so those are an automatic Pass. We close with that API Oil Report at 4:30 after all the serious Oil traders have gone home for the day.
WEDNESDAY: Asian/London Session: Tonight we skip all the Polish Hot Dog type numbers in favor of all the Final Services PMI numbers, starting with Spain at 3:15, Italy at 3:45, France at 3:50, Germany at 3:55, Eurozone at 4:00, and Great Britain at 4:30. Trend = Trade, No Trend = No Trade. Ueda from the Bank of Japan is set to speak at 4:30 a.m. (and if they haven't done so already, they are planning to dump a boatload of US Treasuries, and this is one way they let everyone know the process has begun, so don't be surprised if his speech acts as the final shot over the bow before the selling commences in earnest). None of the rest of the morning or evening numbers will move price even a little.
USA Session: We start with the ADP Non Farm Payroll number, which can only mean one thing...Friday is 2 days away so hang in there. This one still fails to impress traders so we don't trade it, but instead use it to gets our hopes up for another stellar NFP number in 48 hours. Fed Speak at 9:00 (no one cares) and the fake Services PMI number at 9:45 (no one really cares about this one) and finally, the ISM Service PMI number at 10:00. I've mentioned before this one on its own usually fails to live up to the promise of the Manufacturing version, but we have so few numbers left that really impress, we still need to hold out hope we'll see something worth trading once this one drops. We also get Treasury Sec. Bessent testifying about a Budget for Treasury, in front of a Senate Committee on Finance. Can't trade it but this is the kind of thing that can jump up and bite us without warning, so be aware it's out there. We also get factory Orders at 10:00 (yet again, no one cares). Crude Oil at 10:30 and the Beige Book from the Fed's last meeting drops at 2:00 p.m. Finally, we close the session out with yet more Fed Speak at 3:00 p.m.
THURSDAY: Asian/London Session: I do believe the powers that be created the entries for today's session (and the US session as well) to act as palate cleansers in anticipation of tomorrow's NFP number. Aside from both Bullock from the Bank of Australia and Lagarde from the European Central Bank speaking at different times (Bullock at 1:00 a.m., Lagarde at 4:00 a.m.) the rest of the calendar is made up of dumpster fire fuel. Oh yeah, Bailey from the Bank of England is speaking at 11:40 a.m. my time. So important Fed Speak we cannot trade and the rest is garbage we do not want to trade.
USA Session: The same is true here as well. Just a load of garbage. Not a single thing listed for the entire session likely to move prices more than 3-5 pips. Maybe take the day off and rest up for tomorrow.
FRIDAY: Asian/London Session: The early stuff is not worth worrying about, until 8:30 a.m. when Canada drops their version of the NFP. This one still rocks, in spite of the shine falling off a lot of Canadian numbers lately. This one (the USDCAD) can be worth 50 pips or more, particularly since the US version of NFP is dropping at the same time. After the CAD NFP, we have British Fed Speak at 9:40 and 2:00 p.m. (2:00 being Bailey speaking again, but since London has been closed since 11:30 or so, whatever he says at 2 p.m. will likely carry little or no weight.
USA Session: No surprise, the NFP drops at 8:30. Look for some real fireworks, especially since there isn't anything else serious on tap for today (Consumer Credit at 3:00 p.m. won't count for anything).
And that's it for another week. See you back here in seven more days.
Jeff
