Hi Folks.
Yet another abbreviated calendar based on mostly a bunch of crap news days this week. But to be fair, except for Sunday (natch) and Friday, we do have at least one event scheduled daily that has at least the potential to create some real price action. And by real price action I mean more than a 5 point or pip jiggle before falling back asleep.
So let's get on with it.
SUNDAY: A typical Sunday, summer doldrums or otherwise. New Zealand leads off with their Trade Balance at 6:45 p.m. my time (a great one to trade if you want to win or lose 5 pips over the next hour. If that's not you, Pass) and Great Britain releases their RightMove Housing price Index at 7:01 p.m. my time which translates to well after bedtime in Great Britain so you have an Index number (Strike One) released after midnight in the host country (Strike Two) on a Sunday (Strike Three). Pass.
MONDAY: Asian/London Session: The number of entries is small, but two of the three (I'm counting the CAD CPI entries as one) are red folder. Unfortunately, these are the bargain basement Red Folder reports starting with Canadian CPI at 8:30. The three prior months saw 9, 25, and 14 pips in movement. That 25 could be of interest in terms of forgiving the other two numbers for coming in under 20 pips in results. But this 25 showed up when the CPI landed 4/10ths of a percent below expectations, generally considered a great result where CPI is considered, and the market responded accordingly. So see where the actual number comes in, and if it is a big miss in either direction we might see some real activity on this one. The other red folder is the New Zealand CPI q/q, and you have read my words of wisdom on this subject many times: Not all CPI numbers are alike, meaning there are some regions where traders could not possibly care less about a country's CPI number, and the last three pip results of 11, 16, and 2 prove that New Zealand is one of those CPI numbers on everyone's pay-no-mind list. Pass. (The third number is a German PPI number which never generates more than 5-10 pips, so Pass here as well).
USA Session: After 3 weeks of no numbers at all, we now get our second consecutive Monday with a single number no one cares about: The Conference Board Leading Index m/m number. There has not been in the 20+ years I've been chart watching a single CBLI number that moved the USD prices even by a pip. I think someone must have a picture of someone else in bed with a sheep to keep this number showing up on calendars month after month after month. Because trader demand is not the reason. Pass.
TUESDAY: Asian/London Session: After that double Red Folder False Start, we finally get one we can sink our teeth into. Great Britain's Claimant Count number (think NFP with tea and crumpets instead of Natty Light). This one has posted a respectable 14, 20, and 26 pips the last 3 months, and before you starting pointing at the 14 in abject horror, April was a down month across the board for GBP numbers (you'll see a second instance here in a minute). And even if the 14 was untainted, the numbers have been heading up for 3 straight months which gives us a bit more confidence things are moving in the right direction. There are a few other numbers coming out of GB at 2:00 a.m. as well, but Claimant Count will make or break the session. After that it's all trash numbers (Nagel from the German Buba speaks at 7:30 a.m. my time so be aware he's out there in front of a microphone if you're trading the EUR later this morning).
USA Session: So after Monday's failure to inspire, we bounce back at 8:15 a.m. with the ADP Weekly Employment Change number, which the market has ignored since it debuted several months ago. Even though it's the only US number on tap for the day, expect the number to pass without notice yet again. Pass.
WEDNESDAY: Asian/London Session: Once again, Great Britain rides to the rescue of A/L session traders with their CPI y/y number at 2:00 a.m. (along with a bunch of other numbers no one will even glance at). The three previous results were 10, 31, and 28. As mentioned in yesterday's segment, almost all the April numbers were below sub-standard, with this one at 10, but May and June bounced right back with some solid, tradeable numbers. So let's hope they are in the mood for a Three Peat. You can safely ignore the Housing Price Index at 4:30 a.m., also out of GB, and all that is left is the Australian Employment Change at 9:30 p.m. This one has failed to impress traders for a while now as the last three numbers (5, 15, and 13) will attest. Pass.
USA Session: I didn't realize it earlier but apparently we have a theme this week, and that theme seems to be Let's Post One Number Each Day That No One Really Cares About. Today's entrant is Crude Oil at 10:30 a.m., which is only of interest to Crude Oil traders and otherwise makes no dents in any other charts.
THURSDAY: Asian/London Session: At 6:00 a.m. GB posts a palate cleanser number (CBI Industrial Order Expectations) which we can forgive them for since they gave us a couple of great day starters earlier this week. But pass. Then the Eurozone releases their Interest Rate decision at 8:15 a.m., followed by a Press Conference at 8:45 a.m. This one has generously given traders 27, 15, and 23 pips over the last 3 reports, so keep an eye on it and don't focus too much on the 15 two decisions back. We really are short of trade fuel this week, so anything that gets two out of the last 3 over my 20 pip line is getting some love from me this week. The rest of the session is hot garbage, including the Japanese CPI at 7:30 which has only knocked out 3, 7, and 5 pips over the last 3 months.
USA Session: Someone apparently didn't read the "One Number Per Day Theme" memo, because we get Weekly Unemployment at 8:30 a.m., followed by NatGas at 10:30 a.m. There is also that Treasury Currency Report listed as a "tentative" yet again this week (and this is what, the third week we've seen this one show up on the calendar then disappear?) Doesn't matter. Unless you are a NatGas trader, today is yet another Pass.
FRIDAY: Asian/London Session: The only entries worth noting (and that is a stretch in and of itself) are the Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI numbers, dropping as follows: France at 3:15 a.m., Germany at 3:30 a.m., EuroZone at 4:00 a.m. and Great Britain at 4:30 a.m. A trend = Trade, while No Trend = No Trade. Canada has a couple of PI numbers at 8:30 a.m. but historically they do very little. And the session ends with the Belgian Business Climate at 9:00 a.m. Honestly, if you are thinking about not trading and turning this into yet another 3 day weekend, the numbers on calendar support that decision.
USA Session: The US version of the Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI numbers drop at 9:45 and these are the ones traders absolutely ignore each month as they are waiting for the ISM version to drop later. Well, they have a wait on their hands because there are no ISM numbers today, so it will be next week at the absolute earliest before they lay their eyes on the "real" numbers. And New Home Sales at 10:00 isn't going to lift their spirits any either. In fact, given that all 3 of todays entries are a Pass, maybe we should take the day off as well.
See you back here next week as we continue patiently waiting for September and what will hopefully be a return to normal trading with full calendars each week.
Jeff
