Hi Folks.
Here is this week's forecast.
SUNDAY: We start the week with two numbers, one from New Zealand at 6:30 p.m. (BusinessNZ Services Index) and one from Great Britain at 7:01 p.m. (Rightmove HPI m/m), neither with any sort of history of moving price around enough to be a worthwhile risk taking a trade. The rest of the calendar is made up of Chinese numbers, which I don't cover, but a couple of people have pointed out there have been what they call "mystery moves" on some USD-based Forex pairs that seem to be linked to some Chinese numbers coming out at the same time. I'm still not in a place where I can say you should expect one result or another on any specific pair, but you probably should pay attention around 9:30 p.m. (one number drops) and 10:00 p.m. (5 more numbers drop) in case a small trend suddenly develops out of nowhere. So be aware.
MONDAY: Asian/London Session: We start with the Swiss PPI m/m. Typically not a big mover but in the last 3 months has posted a 20+ move in the 30 minutes after the release. One note: This one normally comes out at the time advertised, but 2 months ago was 5 minutes late. So keep in mind this one might be a little flaky, but right now it's still the best shot you have at a 20 pip trade, at least since the market opened last night. At 3:00 a.m. you have the deadly combination of a Swiss Economic Forecast (not a number but an analysis) and German Fed Speak, so both of those can be ignored, although the German Fed carries a bit more weight than that Swiss Econ Forecast, so be aware it's out there. Canadian Housing starts at 8:15 a.m...two of the last three numbers failed to post above 10 pips, while one managed +20, so play it by ear but don't expect much. 6:45 p.m. brings the New Zealand Food Price Index, but this one has an abysmal history of posting 3-8 pips in the 30 minutes post release, so pass. Finally, the BOJ releases the Japanese Interest rate decision at "tentative" so once again a major number with no set release time. If you are a Yen trader be aware it's out there, but we just don't know when.
USA Session: The Empire State Manufacturing Index number comprises the entirety of the US numbers today. It's been on the Markets Pay No Mind list for as far back as I can recall. As I've noted previously, if President Trump is able to keep bringing all these manufacturing operations back to US shores, AND we can find either the people or the robots to make them work, these Manufacturing Index numbers will become relevant again. But I'm guessing that is 18-24 months down the road at a minimum.
TUESDAY: Asian/London Session: We start with the BOJ Press Conference following their Rate Decision, listed also as Tentative, so keep your guards up, Yen Traders. At 5:00 a.m. the EUR posts both the German and the EU ZEW Economic Sentiment number. In the previous 3 month, the earlier two months posted 20+ pip moves during the hour after release, then last month posted the more usual 14 pips, so once again we are faced with a "maybe, but probably not" situation in terms of should we/should we not take any trades after the number drops. Canada has Foreign Securities Purchases at 8:30, a consistently sub-20 pip mover, so pass. The evening numbers, though many, are all just filler numbers with little to no history of tradeable price action.
USA Session: The big number of the day is Retail Sales (overall and core) at 8:30 a.m. As noted almost every month since I started this forecast, Retail Sales has been relegated to the level of Ugly Step-Sister in terms of tradeable price action. I doubt today will be any different, although maybe you can squeeze out 20 if the numbers end up coming in way off target. For the rest of the calendar, it's all junk numbers, although that API Weekly Bulletin from the Oil Industry is coming out today, Tuesday, and tomorrow, Wednesday, is when the Oil number drops at 10:30. So Oil Traders, maybe getting this in advance of the Oil number for a change might make it worth reading. You make the call.
WEDNESDAY: Asian/London Session: Mostly garbage numbers to start the day, although the EU has their Final CPI numbers, which have been a mixed bag. Mostly a sub-20 pip mover, but the previous 2 months cracked into +20, although last month's number came out at the tail end of a 100+ pip run up in the EURUSD that started 3 hours earlier, so it's tough to give the number much credit for that. Play it if you dare but don't be surprised if things crap out around +14. Macklem from the Canadian Fed speaks at 11:15, but the text of his speech will hit the airwaves at 11:00 a.m., so impact from the speech itself will likely already be priced into the market. In the evening we have New Zealand GDP q/q at 6:45 p.m. and Australian Employment Change/Unemployment rate at 9:30 p.m. The last 3 NZ numbers have been 6, 43 and 8. The 43 came on the heels of a massive miss on the forecasted number, so watch this one and see if it's close or not. Another miss in the full percentage point range might generate some nice price action. Anything less than that, probably not. The Aussie Employment numbers are pretty sad as well, with the biggest number over the last 3 months being 14 pips. A fairly safe pass on this one.
USA Session: Weekly Unemployment at 8:30, and while the number has been creeping up into the 240 thousand range over the last 3 weeks or so, it likely won't do much today (nor will any of the other filler numbers on calendar), because at 2:00 p.m. the Fed announces the US Interest Rate. Once again, all the inflation-measuring tools relied upon by the Fed say inflation is retreating, and in just about any other set of circumstances, the rate would already be on the way down. But the animosity between Powell and President Trump is legendary and growing by the hour. A few days back the President called for a full percentage point cut at this meeting, but all the oddsmakers are saying once again "No Cut" in the rate with a 99.7% certainty. So this one will likely inspire all sorts of fireworks as traders react both to the number and to the presser at 2:30 p.m. We also have Oil at 10:30 and NatGas at 11 because of the Federal Holiday tomorrow.
THURSDAY: Asian/London Session: Most of the entries on today's calendar can be safely ignored, except for the Swiss Interest Rate Decision at 3:30 a.m. and the British Interest Rate Decision at 7:00 a.m. Both will inspire some sort of price move once the number is released, and neither have a press conference scheduled, at least at the time I am writing this (Thursday afternoon) so traders get to trade the number drop and that's all. So this could work out well for CHF and GBP traders.
USA Session: The Federal Government along with banks and trading markets are closed for the Juneteenth holiday.
FRIDAY: Asian/London Session: At 2:00 a.m. the EUR gets the German PPI, which 2-3 months ago posted 30+ pips when released with other numbers, but last month as a standalone only managed 14 pips. So maybe, but probably no. The GBP Retail Sales number, on the other hand, has pretty much always been a decent mover and should be an automatic trade until further notice. This one also drops at 2:00 a.m. At 2:40 a.m. Ueda from the BOJ speaks, so watch out Yen traders. The late morning EUR numbers can be ignored, but the 8:30 a.m. CAD numbers are likely going to shove the USDCAD around quite a bit. Both Retail Sales numbers plus some PPI-style numbers should be enough the CAD could easily see 40+ pips after the numbers drop.
USA Session: Garbage Dump Friday for US numbers. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index at 8:30 a.m., and as noted previously, the Manufacturing Index numbers are just not that important to the market right now. Maybe in a couple of years. At 10:00 a.m. we get the Conference Board Leading Index number, which is universally ignored by everyone and has no history of any measurable impact on price action. Finally we close out with a "Tentative" Fed Monetary Policy Report, which isn't even a number. So a great big Pasadena on that one as well.
See you back here next week.
Jeff
