Hi Folks.
Yet another lackluster calendar in this seemingly never-ending Summer of Doldrums. A couple of numbers have a slight chance of making prices go zoom across the charts, but even those are beginning to raise serious questions as to trader interest. But it is summer after all, so we have to go into every trade knowing if we see 3 pips or points, that may be as good as it gets. Even the renewal of the Iran War has done little to move prices around. I fear we are all becoming a bit too jaded by it all.
Oh well. So in honor of the upcoming Bastille Day holiday, let me end this by saying c'est la vie!
On with the show.
SUNDAY: Whether I do a deep dive into the 6:30 p.m. New Zealand BusinessNZ Services Index number, or simply write "Nothing on calendar tonight" the results will be the same. Pass.
MONDAY: Asian/London Session: It seems like I am doing this a lot more now than I did a year ago. Today's calendar, from top to bottom, absolutely sucks. I can't find a single entry worth discussing and a quick audit of the charts backs me up on this. None of the entries, morning or evening, would do any damage in terms of price action if we were trading under normal conditions. In the midst of Summer Doldrums? Fuhgeddaboutit. Pass.
USA Session: Fed speak at 12:30 and at 2:00 p.m. That magical unicorn known as the Federal Budget Balance (which doesn't really exist, much like the unicorn) arrives at 2:00 p.m. to the delight of absolutely no one. Today, full session, is a total waste. Pass.
TUESDAY: Asian/London Session: And today isn't much better. The Japanese Revised Industrial Production number is typically good for about 6 pips of movement, +/-, so a solid Pass. France celebrates National Day (better known in these parts as Bastille Day) so they are closed for business. Swiss PPI at 2:30 a.m. has the same impact as all the other PPI reports across the globe, meaning zero. Pass. The Brits get their Conference Board Leading Index number delivered at 9:30 a.m., with the same for the Australians at 10:30. A Double Pass (none of the CBLI numbers ever make any sort of impact and it's a mystery why calendars still include them). Bailey from the Bank of England speaks at some rubber chicken event at 4:00 p.m. and we close with yet another Japanese report (Core Machinery Orders) which has posted a not-so-stellar 4, 4, and 5 pips movement after release over the prior three months. Pass.
USA Session: But things take a decidedly upward turn at 8:30 as the US grapples with its latest CPI number. This is still one of the Big Three (along with NFP and the Fed Interest Rate Decision) but lately it seems like trader fatigue has overtaken the CPI, with the previous 3 months posting 18, 15, and then 25 pips last month. With 2 out of 3 below 20 pips, on a normal report I would look for an excuse to explain away the 25 and call a Pass on the whole thing. But the CPI has the ability to knock charts around by 40-50 points/pips under the right circumstances, so we still want to keep a close eye on this one at least until further notice. After that, Warsh, the new Fed Head, gives his first testimony at 10:00 to the House Financial Services committee. This is semi-scripted, yet there is typically some knee-jerk trader reactions on Day One of his testimony, so be aware he could say something that destroys an otherwise perfectly good trade for you. Everything else on the calendar is a solid Pass.
WEDNESDAY: Asian/London Session: Once again a total garbage dump of a session, except for the Canadian Interest Rate decision at 9:45 a.m., followed by the Press Conference at 10:30. Typically you'd expect something as heavy as an Interest Rate decision to knock things around well north of 20 pips on the CAD charts, but the last 3 months gave us 15, 18, and 19 pips. I mean, things are moving in the right direction, from a pip count standpoint, but they dropped their rate to 2.25% back last October and it hasn't budged since, nor is it expected to today. But given the lack of anything interesting happening during this session, maybe shoot your shot on this one, but be ready to bail if price stalls out at 15 or so. Because some is better than none.
USA Session: 8:30 brings us the separated Siamese twin called PPI, which normally does not perform quite as well as the CPI. The previous three reports generated 15, 14, and 24 pips, which is slightly worse than the CPI over the same 3 month time frame, but only slightly. If yesterday's CPI turned out to be a big dud, maybe the PPI will ride to the rescue. But given its history and that whole Summer Doldrums thing, don't bet too heavily on that happening. It's not a Pass, but it is a "be very careful". Warsh picks up where he left off with his testimony at 10:00 a.m., now in front of the Senate Banking committee. Since it's the same stupid questions from yesterday, asked by a different group of morons, the market tends to ignore Day Two. And there isn't much we can do anyway since any sort of unusual answer he might give will be reacted upon by computers controlled by the Big Houses, so all we can do is watch. Crude Oil at 10:30, the Fed's Beige Book at 2:00 (again, not much we can do with that one) and Fed Speak at 6:30 p.m. closes us out.
THURSDAY: Asian/London Session: Morning and evening sessions are complete trash, except for the 2:00 a.m. Great Britain GDP m/m number. A short while back this one was routinely good for 20+ pips but lately has declined a bit. The last 3 were 18, 17, and 15, which means the numbers are moving away from being tradeable. I won't say Pass, but this one does not strike me as being a very good risk at the moment.
USA Session: If this were 15 years ago, the 8:30 lineup would have everyone front and center of their trading terminals, finger on the mouse, ready to jump in. Today, not so much. Retail Sales, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Weekly Unemployment. Alone, none of them crack 10 pips very often. Together? In the past few months we still are not seeing any sort of grouping of these numbers help all that much. So unless some intern fat fingers an order and accidentally sells $500 billion worth of futures, we likely won't even know 8:30 has come and gone from looking at the charts. 10:00 a.m. isn't any better. A couple of housing numbers and Business Inventories m/m. A huge Pass. NatGas at 10:30 followed by Fed Speak at 12:30 p.m., and more Fed Speak at 7:00 p.m. closes out our day.
FRIDAY: Asian/London Session: Only 4 entries for the session. 4:00 is the Eurozone Current Account, a single digit pip producer from way back. At 5:00 a.m., the Eurozone Final CPI y/y, and when it breaks out of single digits in terms of pip count, it rarely goes past 11. Finally, Canada posts their Foreign Securities Purchases, which have shown us 18, 9, and 5 pips of movement over the last 3 numbers. No need to agonize over that 18. It's an outlier. 5 and 9 pips are the more common market responses to this one. Pass.
USA Session: Lots of numbers, none of them meaning very much. A couple more building numbers, along with Import Prices m/m at 8:30 a.m. 9:15 brings Industrial Production and Cap Utilization Rates, never much of a barn burner in terms of pip count. Pass. Then we get those Preliminary UofM Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectation numbers at 10:00. Some time back this set knocked out 25 pips after release with seeming ease. Lately? Nope. 18, 12, and 13 pips on the EURUSD over the last 3 months. And as noted above, this being Summer Doldrums and all, we'd pretty much need a Space Alien Invasion in order to get this one to stay above single digits, and even then, 20 is no sure thing. Pass. We close, as we have the last 2 or 3 weeks, with a floating Government report (this time it's the Treasury Currency Report). Will it drop this afternoon? Who knows. Personally, I plan to be long gone for the weekend by the time this one shows up, and I recommend you do the same. Pass (if it even appears in the first place).
See you back here next week for more Summer Doldrums excitement.
Jeff
