Hi Folks.
In the immortal words of Matthew McConaughey, "Alright Alright Alright!" It's time for the real trading to finally begin. A full calendar of economic releases combined with a full week of trading and very few holiday breaks between now and the start of Summer means this is it folks! It's time to get busy. So dust off your keyboard, Windex your screen, and get a glass, bottle, mug or jug of your favorite beverage nearby...
It's Showtime!
SUNDAY: And after an excited intro like that, our very first calendar entry of 2026 is Fed Speak, and at 12:45 in the afternoon, 4-5 hours before the first market even opens. I don't even need to say Pass. There is nothing open where you could do something with this even if you wanted to. At 7:30 p.m. Japan releases their Final Manufacturing PMI number, but these numbers really do nothing on their own, and all the supporting PMI numbers dropped last week. So this is our first Official Pass of the Year 2026. But don't worry. It won't be the last.
MONDAY: Asian/London Session: The Swiss lead us off with Retail Sales y/y at 2:30 a.m. Like most Retail Sales numbers, this one under-produces with results of 13, 9 and 10 pips over the last 3 months. Pass. 3:00 a.m. brings us Spanish Unemployment (and there are a lot of these kind of country-centric numbers from the EU this week, and none of them seem to be the type the market likes so they will not get too many more mentions this week and like this particular entry are a hard) Pass. At 4:30 we get the monthly triple threat of M4 Money Supply, Mortgage Approvals and Net Lending to Individuals out of GB. These three also drop as a group and rarely generate more than 10 pips over the next 30 minutes, so Pass here as well. Tonight we get Japan's Monetary Base y/y at 6:50 p.m., and the typical 10 and 3 pip results (2-3 months back) likely will appear over the 18 pip result (last month) as it was part of a larger overall move down that began well before this number dropped. The 7:01 p.m. (midnight :01 a.m. locally) BRC Retail Sales Monitor out of GB drops while GB sleeps, which makes it an automatic Pass. Finally, Japan finishes the night with a 10 year Bond Auction. Super-Pass.
USA Session: Only two entries today (although one is a combo of two different numbers). ISM Manufacturing PMI drops along with the ISM Manufacturing Prices (a second or even third tier inflation gauge) at 10:00 a.m. When paired up with a non-related number (like the JOLTS Job Openings) this one can easily break through my 20 Pip Line and be well worth all the risks in taking the trade. When it's a standalone number (that Prices number is an appendage, not a separate pairing) it falls flat a lot of the time. My hope is that traders give this more credit than normal given the lack of activity we've lived through over the last month. Maybe, maybe not. Just be ready when the number drops. The other entry is that floating Ward's Vehicle Sales number. We have no idea when it will drop, so Pass.
TUESDAY: Asian/London Session: After three false starts (Italian bank Holiday, all day; German CPI...6 different numbers that drop at 6 different times, so not much we can do with that, and French CPI, of which no one cares) we start with a string of Service PMI numbers out of Spain (3:15 a.m.), Italy (3:45 a.m.) France (3:50 a.m.), Germany (3:55 a.m.), the Eurozone (4:00 a.m.) and Great Britain (4:30 a.m.). Trade any trend you see developing in the EURUSD. No trend = No Trade. New Zealand has a floating GDT Price Index, which is not tradeable due to no fixed time for release. Finally, at 7:30 p.m., Australia releases their various CPI numbers, along with Building approvals. The Aussie CPI numbers are normally only good for 6 pips +/- in the half hour after release, so Pass.
USA Session: We start the day much like we did Sunday, with Fed Speak at 8:00 a.m. Some shindig in North Carolina. All I know is I wouldn't get out of bed to be at a Fed Speak event at 8 in the morning even if they were giving out gold bars as door prizes. But there it is (and as usual, we can't trade it since we don't know what's being said or when they are saying it). 9:45 a.m. brings our own Final Services PMI number, and this is the lesser PMI to the ISM version we typically see the same day (except not today). Pass. We close things out at 4:30 p.m. with that Oil Bulletin, which is a report and not a number, so Pass here as well.
WEDNESDAY: Asian/London Session: The numbers that drop between 2:00 and 4:30 a.m. can be ignored (That's what the market will do, anyway). At 5:00 p.m. we get the Eurozone's Flash CPI numbers, but those only generated 8, 7 and 9 pips over 15 minutes after the last numbers dropped. Not even close to my 20 pip requirement. Pass. Canada releases their Ivey PMI at 10:00 a.m., and this one is at least moving in the right direction, with the last 3 numbers being 6, 16 and 22. Ivey used to be a solid number to trade if you were a Loonie trader. Then it got a little schizo, posting a great number, then a dumpster fire, then another great number. I have long said the Canadian numbers were the best ones to trade because the USDCAD tended to really respond to the bigger, more important numbers. Ivey could end up being a great trade today, so don't blow it off because of the single digit results 3 months back. The Japan and Australian numbers that start dropping at 6:30 p.m. can be safely ignored. They rarely create price action that comes close to double digits in the 30 minutes after release. So Pass.
USA Session: It looks like this week we are bypassing the ADP Weekly Unemployment number in favor of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, the monthly number ADP's been releasing since forever. As it has been over the last few years, this one likely won't move prices enough to justify trading it, but it will give us a hint about a bigger number dropping this Friday (and boy does it feel good to type that without having to hedge whether that number will appear at all!). ISM Services PMI is paired up with JOLTS Job Openings at 10:00 a.m., and the pairing with Services (instead of with Manufacturing on Monday) means today's numbers will have an even better shot at producing a 20+ pip price move than Manufacturing will on Monday, regardless of how the number lands. Factory Orders also drops at 10 but no one has cared about this one since factories were invented. Crude Oil at 10:30 a.m. and Fed Speak at 1:10 p.m. close out the day.
THURSDAY: Asian/London Session: 13 calendar entries covering both Asia and London Sessions and not a single one worth trading, including the Swiss CPI, which FF lists as a Red Folder report, and which, over the last three releases, has moved the USDCHF 6, 9 and 6 pips in the 30 minutes after release. Just because FF thinks it's an important number doesn't make it so. Let the market tell you which numbers to trade and which ones to ignore, and the market is most definitely screaming "PASS" at the top of its lungs for this entire session.
USA Session: We start at 7:30 a.m. with the Challenger Job Cuts number, a fairly recent addition to the calendar but not one that inspires traders to open their platforms 30 minutes early. Pass. 8:30 brings the Weekly Unemployment Claims number, the only number of the 4 listed at 8:30 likely to move prices at all, and that likelihood is slim at best. Pass. Final Wholesale Inventories m/m at 10:00 is another universally ignored number, so Pass here as well. NatGas is at 10:30 a.m. and Consumer Credit at 3:00 p.m. Pasadena on the lot of them.
FRIDAY: Asian/London Session: Remember earlier this week when I mentioned there were a lot of country-specific numbers dropping from the Eurozone this week? Today is when a lot of them make their calendar debuts, and history tells us it's damn near impossible to get traders to trade conglomerated Eurozone numbers, much less the individual country numbers that combine to make the Eurozone numbers. So pass on all these money burners, EXCEPT for the Canadian NFP that drops at 8:30 a.m., alongside its American counterpart. The USDCAD almost ALWAYS shoots out a 30-40 pip move post CAD NFP, so be ready for this one.
USA Session: Amazingly enough, the calendar leads off with a pair of housing numbers (Starts and Permits) from SEPTEMBER. No one trades these numbers when they are current, much less 4 months old. So don't blow a gasket trying to figure out when these two losers are going to come up for air (finally). Instead, focus on 8:30 and an actual, dyed in the wool current NFP number. One of the High Holy Days of trading, today is when you get to start making back what the market stole from you over the last 3-4 months of delayed or surprise numbers that screwed up your trading and your trades. Then at 10:00 a.m. we get the Preliminary UofM Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations numbers. Even though we just got the NFP 90 minutes earlier, this one can still move prices around to make it worth the trade. I was never a big fan of the UofM product (their sample size is miniscule, their methodology is a joke, and their output is suspect at best) but lately the market is really paying attention to the Preliminary results and trading them like they really matter. So it's a case of "trade what you see, not what you think you should be seeing". Ignoring the Fed Speak at 1:40 p.m., the UofM numbers are your last chance to make something out of this week. So be paying attention when they drop.
Thus endeth the first week of "normal" trading and for all our sakes I hope it's a productive one. Someone owes us at least that much. See you back here next week.
Jeff
