Hi Folks.

Welcome to the last Econ Forecast for 2025, and, technically, the first Econ Forecast for 2026. It's amazing that something that appears to carry such great import has so little to say. But at least the Silly Season is officially over as of the weekend of January 3-4, and the real trading can begin again in earnest Monday January 5th, 2026.

Here is the forecast.

SUNDAY: At 6:50 the Bank of Japan releases their Summary of Opinions surrounding their decision on the 19th of December to raise their interest rates to .50-.75% (from .25-.50%). A report, not a number, so Pass.

MONDAY:  Asian/London Session: Surprisingly, nothing for this session, morning or evening.

          USA Session: 10:00 a.m. is Pending Home Sales, a report mis-colored as Beige instead of the screamingly bright Yellow it deserves. Pass.  10:30 is Crude Oil and 12:00 noon is NatGas, both numbers a carryover from last week. If you trade either or both, you'll see some activity, but likely not as much as you will on Wednesday when this week's numbers are on tap.

TUESDAY:  Asian/London Session: At 3:00 a.m. we get the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer and the Eurozone Spanish Flash CPI y/y. Neither are known for doing anything with price action and that will do it for the A/L session.

          USA Session: We start with a "Tentative" and I'd normally dismiss it out of hand, but it's that new (for us, anyway) ADP WEEKLY Employment Change number.  Listed as tentative but so far it keeps dropping right at 8:15 a.m. That's the good news. The bad news is the last 3 drops generated 9, 9 and 6 pips. So it ultimately ends up a Pass anyway. A pair of Housing Price Index numbers at 9:00 a.m. are also a big Pasadena, as is the Chicago PMI at 9:45 a.m. 2:00 p.m. brings us the last Fed Meeting Minutes, a report, not a number, so pass, and there is a Floating/Tentative Treasury Currency Report, so pass here as well. Finally we get that Oil Report (not a number) at 4:30. So lots of stuff on the calendar and it all turns into Quarterback Practice: Nothing but Passes.

WEDNESDAY:  Asian/London Session: Another Zip session.  I'm beginning to sense a pattern here.

          USA Session: Not quite a zip session, but close: Weekly Unemployment at 8:30 (Not a real mover as of late so Pass) followed by THIS week's Oil (10:30 a.m.) and NatGas (12:00 noon) numbers. And don't forget most if not all of the markets shut down early today so don't wait until 4:30 to close out your trades.

THURSDAY:  Asian/London Session: Happy New Year. No trading today.

          USA Session: Happy New Year. No trading today.

FRIDAY:  Asian/London Session: The A/L session had a pretty good deal going this week, but today is the day they screw that up.  We get the Great Britain Nationwide Housing Price Index number at 2:00 a.m. (which typically does nothing for price action, so Pass) followed by the Manufacturing PMI number from across the region: Spain @ 3:15 a.m., Italy @ 3:45 a.m., France @ 3:55 a.m., the Eurozone @ 4:00 a.m. (along with a pair of other Euro numbers: M3 Money Supply and Private Loans, which equal a big fat zero when it comes to price action, so no worries about those two), Great Britain at 4:30 a.m. and Canada at 9:30 a.m. The usual rules apply: if you see the EURUSD beginning to trend after the early numbers drop, trade the trend. No Trend = No Trade.

          USA Session: Final Manufacturing PMI at 9:45. Normally this one generates little interest amongst traders. At 9:45 on a Friday morning after having two days off to celebrate the incoming New Year? We could actually see negative price action on this one. So let me close out the old year and ring in the New Year with a solid and heartfelt PASS!

See you back here next week when the real trading returns.

Jeff