Hi Folks.
Yet another week of sub-par numbers until we reach Thursday, when for a brief moment in time (actually, more like 120 brief moments in time) we get some decent numbers that should move things around a bit.
So try and stay awake until then.
Here's the Forecast.
SUNDAY: So this Sunday starts a little better than last (when all we had was a Bank Holiday notification in Australia), so right off the bat, any real numbers are an immediate improvement. Just not much of one. The BOJ Summary of Opinions is a report, not a number, and if you are a serious Yen trader, kind of an important report, but still not a number. The two Australian numbers at 7:00 and 7:30 p.m. my time are zero impact numbers, so Pass. The Japanese Final Manufacturing PMI number does zero in terms of Yen movement, so Pasadena here as well. All in all, a typical Sunday night.
MONDAY: Asian/London Session: The first 4 entries on tonight's calendar are so low level, if they never appeared again you wouldn't miss them. So pass on the 12:30 Australian Commodity Prices y/y, 2:00 a.m. Eurozone German Retail Sales m/m, 2:00 a.m. Great Britain Nationwide Housing Price Index and 2:30 Swiss Retail Sales y/y. Then at 3:15 we lead off the monthly string of Manufacturing PMI numbers with Spain, followed by Switzerland at 3:30 a.m., Italy at 3:45 a.m., France at 3:50 a.m., Germany at 3:55 a.m., Eurozone at 4:00 a.m., Great Britain at 4:30 a.m., and Canada at 9:30 a.m. Look for a trend on the EUR pairs. Trend = Trade. No Trend = No Trade. Interspersed with the PMI numbers is British Fed Speak at 6:45 a.m. Then in the evening we get New Zealand's Building Consents m/m (I don't even have to look at a chart to know that one is zero impact...Pass). Japan shares their Monetary Base y/y number at 6:50, and this one regularly trips me up a little. It sounds like it should be important, so I go back and look at the charts and see the numbers posted the last three months are 3, 18 and 10 pips. 18 is a decent showing but it surrounds itself with barely there results in other months, so it's tough to recommend. But if you decide to keep an eye on it, this may end up being one of the better months, for no specific reason. And since we are talking Japan, they have a 10 year bond auction set for 10:35 p.m. Not much we can do with that one either. Then we get to Australia. The 7:30 p.m. Building Approvals number can be safely ignored, but at 10:30 p.m. we get their Interest Rate Decision, followed by a press conference at 11:30 p.m. The current rate is 3.60% and they are expected to raise that rate to 3.85%. It was at 3.85% until their August 2025 meeting, when they cut (as expected) to 3.60% and we saw a grand total of 16 pips movement over the next 30 minutes. After that, the next 3 meetings the rate stayed the same and we saw 22, 8, and 5 pips. That September 22 pip showing seems to have taken place with no real explanation, and this particular Rate Statement usually doesn't do much. But today the RBA is expected to raise rates back to 3.85%. If they do raise rates, maybe we see some real activity. Or Maybe not. And if they leave rates along, the same indecisive platitudes apply. This one is a bit of a head scratcher. Normally that's a good thing when looking at news-based trades. So be ready for this one if you trade the AUD.
USA Session: We actually see a tiny bit of "return to normal" today when we lead off with the general Manufacturing PMI at 9:45 a.m., which everyone ignores, followed by the ISM Manufacturing PMI, along with PMI Prices, at 10:00 a.m., which everyone pays attention to. This is, if I remember correctly, the first time since the shutdown began we got these in this specific order, which had been the norm for a very long time. And this one does move the needle (The ISM one, I mean) so Forex and Futures traders alike, be ready at 10. Fed Speak at 12:30 and a floating/tentative Loan Officer Survey closes us out for the day.
TUESDAY: Asian/London Session: The early session has a couple of those Country-specific numbers (French Government Budget Balance and Preliminary CPI at 2:00, followed by Spanish Unemployment at 3:00) and those are just filler numbers so the calendar doesn't look too small. Pass. The Brits have a "tentative" Bond auction set for the early session as well, but again, not much any of us can do with that. After that, it's all about New Zealand. And New Zealand does not disappoint, as long as you are expecting a bunch of numbers that fail to move New Zealand FX charts around in any noticeable fashion. The tentative GDT Price Index normally comes out during the US session, so that's an automatic pass on a number they don't let loose until the country is in bed. Then we get their version of the Non-Farm Payroll, which over the last 3 months posted 1, 2 and 18 pips movement. Those 1 and 2 numbers are the norm, but last month they were expecting a .1% rise in the Employment number but it came in at 0.00%, thus generating a firestorm of activity (well, for the NZD). Don't expect much, even if the number misses, unless the number misses by a lot more than .1%. We close things out with the ANZ Commodity Index, which like most NZD numbers, fails to move the needle. Pass on all of them.
USA Session: We lead off with Fed Speak at 8:00 a.m. and 9:40 a.m., but get the Jolts Job Openings number at 10:00. A Red Folder number that tends to do a lot better when paired with either the ISM Manufacturing or Services PMI, but today it has to do all the heavy lifting all by its lonesome. That's not an encouraging sign, but it is about the only thing worth looking at on the calendar today, so, maybe. We also have that floating RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism number listed for today. Sometimes it shows up and sometimes they kick it over to a different day. But it really doesn't matter because it's another Zero Impact number on the USD and Futures charts. Today is a day for floaters, as we also have that Ward's Total Vehicle Sales number coming out at some point, but it too has Zero Impact on the charts. And finally we have that API Oil Industry report (not a number) at 4:30 p.m. Pass.
WEDNESDAY: Asian/London Session: Aussie Fed Speak leads us off at 12:30, with a "tentative" Swiss Trade Balance doing us no good by not having a stated release time. Then it's the Services PMI parade, starting at 3:15 for Spain, 3:45 for Italy, 3:50 for France, 3:55 for Germany, 4:00 for the Eurozone, 4:30 for Great Britain, and apparently FF forgot Canada exists, even though they rated a mention in the Manufacturing version two days ago. Same rules apply. Look for a trend. No Trend = No Trade. We get a bunch of important looking Euro numbers at 5:00 a.m. (Core and Overall Flash CPI Estimates, PPI m/m and Italian Preliminary CPI m/m...okay, 3 important sounding ones and then the Italian number...no offense, Italy...it's just that the Euro-based, Country-Specific numbers just don't have any impact on the charts) but none of these do much at all in terms of tradeable price action. Pass on the lot. The evening numbers are all dumpster fire fuel. You can safely ignore them all.
USA Session: We start with the monthly ADP Non-Farm Employment number, which does little more than give us a peek at what to expect from the NFP day after tomorrow. At 9:45 we get the "fake" Services PMI (the one everybody ignores) followed by the ISM Services PMI at 10:00 (the one everybody trades). So be ready for that one as well. Crude Oil at 10:30 followed by Fed Speak at 6:30 closes us out for the day.
THURSDAY: Asian/London Session: Ignore everything going on in this session until 7:00 a.m. my time, when Great Britain releases their Interest rate decision (with press conference at 7:30) and at 8:15 a.m. when the Eurozone releases THEIR Interest Rate Decision (followed by the presser at 8:45 a.m.) The last three Brit numbers (using the GBPUSD) were 39, 39 and 48 pips. The Euro numbers were 60, 37 and 32 pips (EURUSD). Both of these reports are 100% worth trading and today is without a doubt the best trading day of the week for the A/L session. At 12:15 we get Canadian Fed Speak and at 5:30 we get Australian Fed Speak, followed by Japanese Household Spending at 6:30. Can't trade Fed Speak and we have no reason to trade the Japanese number.
USA Session: Challenger Job Cuts at 7:30 a.m., followed by Unemployment Claims at 8:30 (that one has been disappointing us for a long while now), Nat Gas at 10:30, followed by Fed Speak at 10:50 wraps the USA session up early for a change.
FRIDAY: Asian/London Session: All the early numbers are trash until we get to the Canadian Non Farm Payroll at 8:30 a.m. That's the big number for the day and it tends to post some good numbers, particularly when the US NFP is set to drop at the same time (like today). The only number in the entire session worth trading (meaning ignore the Ivey PMI at 10:00).
USA Session: Non Farm Payroll day. The day everybody gets a chance to get healthy. I didn't bother looking at the previous numbers because the shutdown turned everything upside down for about 5 months. But today we get a timely number and this one is usually good for 35-50 pips movement. At 10:00 we get the Preliminary UofM Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations numbers, and these prelim numbers do a lot better than the final versions out in a couple of weeks. And if the NFP really moved things around at 8:30, this might end up being a booster shot that carries tradeable price action over into the lunch hour. Fed Speak at noon followed by Consumer Credit at 3:00 can both be safely ignored.
See you back here next week.
Jeff
