Hi Folks.

So allegedly, a deal was all but worked out between the US and Iran a few days back and the Straits of Hormuz were opened once again for business.

And then there was allegedly no deal and the Straits were once again closed.

This is getting boring.

But the good news is, uncertainty leads to volatility, which is the life's blood of traders. So after a couple of fairly odd weeks, perhaps this week we will return to charts that are actually moving up and down.

Or not.

I'm afraid my crystal ball is on the fritz once again, so it's anyone's guess what to expect this week.

So be careful out there.

Now on with the show.

SUNDAY: One thing we can always be certain of: Sunday numbers will suck, and tonight does not disappoint.  New Zealand Trade Balance at 6:45 pm my time and the Great Britain Rightmove Housing Price Index at 7:01 pm. The NZ number never makes a ripple and the British number drops at midnight:01 local time, so even THEY know its a waste of time. So no surprise here.  Pass on the lot.

MONDAY:  Asian/London Session: The early numbers out of Japan and Germany do nothing to move price along. At 8:30 a.m. Canada releases all their CPI numbers (5 total). There was a time when CAD CPI actually moved things around 30+ pips after release, but those days are gone and now mid-teens is about as good as it gets. So Red Folder aside, this one isn't worth the risk any longer. Pass.  The rest of the numbers fail to inspire either, including the New Zealand CPI q/q, which back in July actually posted a perfect 20 pip move in the 15 minutes after release, but since then has been mired in the 10-13 pip range. So Pass here as well.

          USA Session: Not a single entry as of 7:30 a.m. on Sunday the 19th.  I have noticed some entries sneaking in later in the week over the last few weeks, but most are Fed Speak and Trump Speak. So likely we'll get no help from the news tomorrow morning.

TUESDAY:  Asian/London Session: We open with the GBP version of the NFP at 2:00 as the Brits release their Claimant Count numbers.  The last 3 months have seen 51, 57 and then a very anemic 16 pips. Ignore last month. Be ready for mid-double digits here, and let's be grateful we actually have a number in this session worth watching. It's been a few weeks (probably the last time GBD dropped Claimant Count, to be honest). And the quality of numbers after the GBD CC number drops down to dumpster level and isn't worth mentioning. It all sucks.

          USA Session: After the full day off from any numbers that might help, the US of A springs back with Retail Sales, which was supposed to drop last week but shows up here today.  This one hasn't been a lot of help to us lately, but it's our first real number since last week so it might have an oversized impact on prices, at least for a few minutes. So be aware. The rest is Fed Speak and reports (not numbers) but also be aware that at 10:00 a.m. Kevin Warsh starts his nomination process in front of the Senate to take over Powell's job when his term as Fed Head expires next month. I'm not sure he will say anything that will roil the markets (if he's smart he won't) but you just never know. So if you're trading at 10:00 a.m. eastern be aware he's out there.

WEDNESDAY:  Asian/London Session: In what feels like a rare treat, the GBD drops another serious Red Folder number at 2:00 a.m., their CPI and PPI numbers, which have generated 20, 23 and 16 pips over the last 3 months. The slight drop below 20 last month is small cause for concern...most numbers out of Great Britain were on the low side last month. I'm guessing they bounce back over 20 this week, so once again, be ready to trade if you are awake at 2 a.m. my time. The rest of the day is a bust as far as numbers go. Nagel from the German Buba speaks at 1:00 p.m. my time and Lagarde is on tap to do the same at 1:30, so since they are both Powell-level Fed Heads, be aware they are out there jabbering in the afternoon.

          USA Session: Crude Oil at 10:30.  That's it.  Hardly worth typing.

THURSDAY:  Asian/London Session: This morning we get the Flash Manufacturing and Service PMI numbers (combined for a change), with France 3:15, Germany 3:30, Eurozone 4:00 and Great Britain at 4:30. Trend = Trade, No Trend = No Trade.  Nothing else worth mentioning aside from our old friend Nagel from the German Buba, once again speaking, this time at 11:00 a.m. my time. Just know he's out there if you are a EUR trader.

          USA Session: This is a straight "nobody cares" session. Weekly Unemployment at 8:30 (nobody cares anymore). Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI at 9:45 (nobody cares because they are waiting for the ISM versions to come out later on in the month), and NatGas at 10:30 (nobody cares except for NatGas traders).

FRIDAY:  Asian/London Session: You've got to hand it to Great Britain...they did all the heavy lifting this week, and we close with the GBP Retail Sales number, which posted 28, 23 and 13 pips over the last 3 months. As I mentioned earlier in the week, the drop off into the teens last month isn't that concerning because all of their numbers were down last month across the board. Be ready to end the week with another shot at 20+ pips once this Sales number drops. Not much else to work with to close out the week (FF has the CAD Retail Sales listed as a Beige Folder number, but the last 3 months were all numbers in the teens, so nothing to get excited about here).

          USA Session: We only get the revised UofM numbers today (Inflation Expectations and Consumer Confidence) and these Revised numbers typically don't produce numbers over 20+ in the hour after release...2 of the last 3 numbers were in the mid-teens. But 2 months ago we saw a 57 pip move and there wasn't anything else on calendar aside from some waste of space housing number that was a month late in getting here, thanks one of the many government shutdowns we endured. That one was what we call an anomaly, an unexpected deviation from the norm, and I can't think of a reason we'd see it happen again this month unless it is perfectly timed with some serious war news out of Iran.  So maybe just pass on this one and take the rest of the day off.

See you back here next week.

Jeff