Hi Folks.
As I am writing this, we are in the beginning, I guess, of Day Three of the US/Iran ceasefire. Whether (or how long) this current status lasts is anyone's guess, but so far the cessation of hostilities between the US and Iran (no such agreement exists between Israel and Iran, at least yet) means the Index charts have settled down noticeably. Whether that is a good thing or a bad thing from a trading standpoint remains to be seen. But we have been moving from one disaster to the next for the last few years and chaotic has become something of a way of trading life by now. So while things are just a wee bit settled for the moment, I can only wonder what the next big event will be (Alien Invasion?) and when we can expect it to make its debut appearance. About the only thing I'm certain of is that when it does happen, I will be in a trade going the wrong way.
Oh, and the IMF (International Monetary Fund...think Nerd Prom for the super rich) meets every day this week but not at any specific time. Participants have a well documented habit of leaking information to the press as the meetings are in progress...this group has more leaks that the Iranian Navy...so if you get an unexplained price spike at just about any time during the London and US sessions, you can thank the IMF for that.
Now on with the show.
SUNDAY: Only two entries on calendar tonight: New Zealand's BusinessNZ Services Index at 6:30 p.m. my time and Japan's M2 Money Stock y/y at 7:50. If either the New Zealand or the Yen pairs move more than 5 pips at news time, check your windows for any signs that the Alien Invasion has begun, because there is no way these numbers made prices move 5 or more pips.
MONDAY: Asian/London Session: Complete trash. Not a single report with a history of moving price around so that anyone would notice. You're going to see this theme mentioned a lot this week for both sessions.
USA Session: And we start doing that here, now. 10:00 a.m. is Existing Home Sales, one of the numbers that Top Realtor guy mentioned a few years ago that they simply make up every month. Remember during the real estate meltdown of 2008-2010? Tons of Existing Homes were supposedly changing hands then, in spite of all the lending banks being in Chapter 7 bankruptcy and literally no one meeting the qualifications needed to get a mortgage funded. So today is a total wash, both sessions.
TUESDAY: Asian/London Session: Only 5 numbers covering both sessions and none of them are going to move prices around post-drop. Not. A. Single. One. Pass.
USA Session: But there is actually a number worth mentioning for the US session. It's not the 8:15 a.m. ADP Weekly Employment Change, which is still universally ignored by traders everywhere. No, it's the PPI numbers that drop at 8:30 a.m. my time. The lesser of the PI numbers (CPI reigns supreme and dropped last Friday) so the gap in time combined with the lack of any other numbers coming out at 8:30 would normally mean traders won't pay much attention to the PPI. But this is the first number worth mentioning in any session since the CPI dropped Friday morning, so maybe this will be one of those rare times when PPI actually carries its own weight for a change and makes prices go zoom, for at least a few minutes. At 4:30 pm is that ADP Oil Report. Nothing any of us can do with it. And as a late addition, there is now a ton of Fed Speak, from 12:15, 12:45, and 1:00 p.m. (3 of 'em are at the 1:00 p.m. shindig).
WEDNESDAY: Asian/London Session: Once again not much to work with overall. The early session has two entries and neither is worth mentioning. The 8:30 CAD numbers are lower tier and don't normally do anything for CAD price action, so an easy Pass. The 10:30 a.m. Australian Conference Board Leading Index number? The one that drops when it is around midnight or later in Australia? An easy Pass. At 11:50, Bailey from the Bank of England (their version of Powell) speaks, so maybe pay attention if you trade the GBP. Otherwise don't worry about it. The Swiss version of Powell (Schlegel) speaks at 1:00, along with Breman from the New Zealand Fed, but again, if you don't trade the CHF or NZD, there is nothing to worry about. Bailey circles around again at 2:00 p.m. and Hauser from Australia at 4:00, and then, finally, at 9:30 p.m., we reach a Red Folder report out of Australia, their Employment Change number (think NFP). But like the previous AUD-NFP numbers before it (specifically the last 3 months worth of output at 5, 5 and 6 pips) it can be safely ignored in spite of its Red Folder status.
USA Session: Another day with several entries and nothing to do with them. That Empire State Manufacturing Index drops at 8:30, along with Import Prices, but the Manufacturing Indexes are just not at a point yet where they matter to traders (and Import Prices has never mattered). 10:00 a.m. brings yet another Housing number which can safely be ignored. 10:30 is Crude Oil, which has been a white knuckle roller coaster ride for the last few weeks but may just see a breather as long as everyone sticks to the agreement to play nice for a couple of weeks. Fed Speak at 1:45, the Fed's Beige Book drops at 2:00 p.m. but rarely causes much of a disturbance any longer. However, with the current confusion as to whether the next Fed meeting will result in a rate cut, a rate increase, or another stand pat, the notes derived from the Beige Book might create a small firestorm of its very own. Nothing in it will help us, but it you're around at 2:00 p.m., be aware it's out there and could make a difference in terms of Price Action. We close at 4:00 p.m. with TIC Long Term Purchases (the difference between home grown bond buyers and foreign purchasers). 4:00 p.m. release time tells you all you need to know. Pass.
THURSDAY: Asian/London Session: We start with a laundry list on numbers out of Great Britain at 2:00 a.m. my time, but the only one you want to watch is the GDP number. The rest are just filler. And since we've seen 20 pip moves for 3 months in a row, it's definitely one to watch (and trade). So don't miss this rare opportunity to trade something during the early A/L session. And when I say the quality drops off after this, I mean it nosedives. Garbage numbers and various Fed Speakers (Nagel, the head of the German Buba speaks at 12:45 p.m. my time, but the rest are all lesser toadies whose presence on the calendar is to act as space fillers).
USA Session: 8:30 starts us off with Weekly Unemployment Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Neither really does a lot on their own to move prices, but maybe the synergy created by dropping both at the same time will create more than the usual 7-10 pip moves. Maybe, but don't bet the rent money on it. After that, garbage (Cap. Utilization and Industrial Production) and NatGas (10:30). The day ends at 10:35 with Fed Speak from someone named Miran whose name I don't recall ever seeing on these pages before. So Pass on it all after the 8:30 numbers.
FRIDAY: Asian/London Session: Garbage. Pass.
USA Session: Fed Speak. Pass.
And that's all there is for another week. See you back here next Sunday.
Jeff
