Hello Friend
I had a great at Cheltenham yesterday. A couple of winners in my members' notes at 4/1 and 20/1 ensured a profitable day. When you go racing with friends and blog about the sport for a living, there is always an expectation that you will find every winner. I had a shocker on the first 4 races but thankfully found the final three winners to restore my pride. That may well be the best day I've had at the racetrack, I certainly haven't backed more than three winners on a card before, which given I generally focus on 6s/8s+ shots isn't a surprise.
I was fairly confident about my pokes in the last race and they came first and second. A few of you who follow me on twitter (follow me HERE>>> if you wish) got stuck in to the Remiluc and a few had the 164/1 forecast! Sadly I didn't.
Frodon was the one that got away, having tipped him LTO. (as I did Wakanda, and I backed neither!) Nicholls' 0/15 stats in the race put me off somewhat but I should have kept the faith. Watching him bolt up wasn't much fun. But that race LTO was very strong, dropping in trip, softer ground, in form. It's always easy after the event. Well done if you backed him. Gold Present, the horse who out-stayed him at Ascot, is clearly decent. Henderson thinks the National fences may suit so it will be interesting to watch his development. Next year's Becher winner?..following a decent run in the Grand National maybe!
Something isn't right with the Twister-Davies yard. I noted how he was 1/27 in the last 14 days going into this meeting and most/all of his ran appallingly. I wonder if they are sick or he has eased off them too much over the last few weeks. Or they were all in a post fly jab lull. Or they'd all had hard enough seasons up to this point. Worth keeping an eye on.
Onto today...
Just a reminder about my 'The Chasing Game' article and video, if you wanted something to read/watch on a Sunday afternoon. 153 of you who have watched it so far...
The intro is below....
Intro
This post, and video, touches on a few areas that I could improve on when it comes to all things 3m+ handicap chases, which form the backbone of the 'free tips'. These have done well in recent years, certainly from a profit/ROI point of view, and nothing is more important than that really. (2016: +75 points ; 2017 18/185, +79.5; 2018 2/19,7p, +4)
However, the truth is that I don't feel I am 'progressing'. The P/L has been the same for the last couple of years and I still find myself making the same mistakes. I am a better punter than this time last year, but could be better still. There are many areas I need to improve on. This post is an attempt to do just that. I'm starting from a solid foundation but I always think I can do better. I have spent some time pondering my tipping efforts over the last week or so and have tried to go 'back to basics'. There are some common themes, as below, that I need to have front and centre of my mind.
The video below is the longest one I have recorded to date, and deliberately so. Well, i didn't try and make it short! (which never works anyway) It is split into two parts, with the fist 25 minutes discussing the points below the video. I expand on those points and my thinking behind them. The next 40 minutes of the video is spent looking at 4 real life examples - horses I tipped and races I tipped in. There are errors a plenty. You will always make mistakes in this game. That is why the puzzle is so hard to solve. And that is why I enjoy it so much- the challenge. In this racing bubble of ours I live for being right (tipping a winner/solving the puzzle/coming out in front over time/remaining disciplined) which is hard to do. With any luck this re-setting of my brain, and focus on the points below, will make me a better punter moving forwards. With any luck I may actually show some signs of progress!
As always the aim is to offer you something of interest to read/watch. With any luck there will be some ideas within this post that improve your own betting or at least give you something to ponder.
Any comments, thoughts, questions etc are always welcome and you can post them below. With that said, the video... put the kettle on, and remember you have a pause button- you can watch it in chunks! :)
(part 1 is 25 mins, part 2 the rest.. I think you need to watch it all for part 2 to make more sense)
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Enjoy the rest of your weekend,
Josh
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