Good Evening, Friend
Below you can find Thursday's Trainer/Jockey micro qualifiers, followed by a look at the big 7f handicap at 3pm...
Wednesday's trainer/jockey qualifiers had a consistent yet frustrating time of it... 2nd, 3rd, 2nd, 2nd, UP, 2nd, UP, 4th.
On another day it would have been quite the start for those angles, Alligator Alley going very close buy maybe not wanting it as much as the winner - Jim Jungle running a blinder from what may have been the 'wrong side', edging all the way across- a run to suggest he's still improving. Aztec Empire was maybe an unlucky loser also, not beaten far. That's the game. Onwards...
Thursday's Qualifiers
(you can find the research HERE>>>)
Micros
2.25 – Twilight Romance (Micro 6, 25/1<)
3.00 – Austrian Theory (M6, 25/1<)
3.00 – Blue For You (M3, 10/1<)
3.35 – Free Wind (M1, any odds, 9/1< best)
4.10 – Spring Fever (M1, any, 9/1< best)
4.45 – Aragon Castle (M4, any odds)
5.20 – Mottisfont (M6, 25/1<)
Pointers
2.25 – Persica (Hannon/Levey)
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3.00 York - 7f C2 Handicap
My two lucky each-way pins have landed on Dutch Decoy (9/1+) and Point Lynas (12/1) and I'll back both for a bit of entertainment.
Trends... a simple profile of the horse having raced at York 0-3 times previously, and having won at C2 or C3 level in career, but no higher, would have found 14/14 winners (14/153 runners, 42p, +102 BFSP)... and IF upholding it does help cut the field in half, to a long-list of 10. I can't get it any shorter than that as no other stand out stats that I could find to help.
The ten... Dutch Decoy, Racingbreaks Ryder, Point Lynas, Tewada, The Gatekeeper, Darkness, Spirit Catcher, Austrian Theory, Ropey Guest, Outbreak.
Trainers... x3 trainers have won this previously in the period, who have runners this year... Charlie Johnston (well, his dad Mark, but I'll count as the same for now), David O'Meara and Tim Easterby, the first two with a fair number of runners between them. Cruyff Turn represents Tim, the horse having won this two years ago.
I thought Dutch Decoy and Point Lynas looked the most interesting of those on my 'trends longlist'.
Dutch Decoy hasn't done much wrong on recent starts, has solid big field form, arrives in form and will appreciate a return to faster ground. He will need some luck from his draw as they may be patient on him, but he likes sitting off a strong pace and assuming he gets the breaks, I thought he'd be running on powerfully to the line. He's 4/9,8p on Good to Firm in handicaps. They could get some showers this evening but it was so quick on Day 1, I've assumed it will be similar. Oliver Stammers also gets on well with him, 4/12,8p together in handicaps. Maybe he'll fine one or two too good again but at his best he should be in the top 6.
Point Lynas may well be the more preferred of the two, simply because he's 1/3,2p at the course and tends to race prominently, which can be important here on quicker ground, even in a big field. The 60+ day break is a minor niggle. They wanted to get a run in him but couldn't find quicker ground and this has no doubt been the plan since Ascot, where make all tactics were probably not the best idea. If he got back to the level of his run here in May, he'd have to go close, and he's still open to progress. He can be keen, so hopefully isn't too fresh after the break, that's my only concern. Trainer/jockey remain in good form.
Of the others on that list... well if this remains proper Good to Firm, that was an unknown/question for a few of those, as well as the odd C2 question for some others. The two pokes above should have no concerns with conditions. Obviously that long list may not include the winner, but that's the game when using such a 'trends' approach and it's served us well since the start of Royal Ascot, so here's hoping.
I will mention Austrian Theory - I don't know what to make of his last start, first run in 47 days and now running 4 days later, maybe that has put him spot on. He will try and make all drawn in 2 and a place wouldn't be a shock at a big price, but I thought he needed much more for win purposes, but he's more interesting than some outsiders, for all he's in and out and could run one of two ways. I just wanted to flag that his x3 career wins to date have all come in June - In 2021, 2022 and 2023. Maybe there's nothing in that but for those of you who like following such horses, add him into your trackers. We've got a long time to wait of course, but it could be worth it!
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As always, do with those musings as you please, hopefully they may help you land on a winner or two.
All the best,
Josh
