Good Morning, Friend

Below you can find a few pointers for Day 1 of York's Ebor Festival, including today's 'qualifiers'.

My stats research can be found HERE >>>

We all had fun at Worcester last night, an exciting run from Shan where for a moment we thought he was going to gallop onto victory but sadly not for the first time decided to put down at the last two hurdles which cost him ground and energy.

There's a chance he wants a bit of company for longer and we may need our jockey to channel their inner Jamie Spencer and try riding him a bit colder. That's the best he's travelled I think, cruising around. Another place for his collection and now over 9k in prize money, so he's covered his capital cost, but our wait goes on for everything to fall right and to get that deserved win. Thankfully he does try/responds to pressure, but more cogitating required! He's going to have one more run next month for Amy before a deserved holiday and he'll then be off to Dr Newland's, where a change of scenery may help him also.

My 'through the card' had an 'ok' time of it, Courtland the highlight of course, thankfully a 'next best 1' and a winner from the main three fancies, the other two... one unseated early but he was tanking around, for all I suspect a place at best. The other didn't run well, I got the winner wrong, he made 7/2 look rather big!

Do note trainer James Owens, he's really started well, esp with his hurdlers and appears to improve plenty from other yards - ex Phillip Hobbs inmates could be worth keeping an eye on, I need to check the stats, but whatever James has done, Coolnaugh Haze looked transformed. I think Broomfields Cave was coming to make a challenge in the last when making a mess of 3 out, game over, jockey losing his irons. (or maybe that's pocket talk!) No doubt he's got more hurdles wins in him, if jumping better. Maybe he needs a fence to be seen to best effect, which he may give more respect. Having highlighted the Bowen stats, father-son had a double, alas, I didn't do that. Zoran has run flat but deserves another chance at some point, maybe the ground was too quick, I don't know.

To York...

You can find my trainer/jockey research HERE >>>

Today's 'Qualifiers'

Micros

1.50 - Alligator Alley (Micro 3, 10/1<) 9/1

1.50 - Jim Jungle (Micro 6, 25/1<) 9/1

2.25 - Ballymount Boy (M6, 25/1<) 2/1

3.00 - Castle Way (M2), 5/1<) 4/1

3.00 - Gregory (M1, any, 9/1< best) 11/10

4.10 - Aztec Empire (M4, any) 5/1

4.10 - La Pulga (M6, 25/1<) 40/1

5.20 - Barnwell Boy (M6, 25/1<) 20/1

'Pointers'

4.45 - Pillow Talk (Burke/Tudhope) 11/2

*

I'm hoping these jockey pointers have a good week, averaging +34 points between them every year for the last 8 festivals. It's rarely that easy of course but some of the stats are compelling, for example Micro 3, the O'Meara/Tudhope angle...

22 bets / 6 wins / 18p / 27% wsr / +19 SP / +23 BFSP

That makes Alligator Alley of interest of course, and given those place stats, and with 5-6 places up for grabs, looks like a must EW. He has course form, and maybe this 5.5f will be ideal, ground fine, and there's lots of pace his side to track, hopefully he starts better than he can do. Tudhope is riding very well at the moment and usually has a few winners this week, so here's hoping. Jim Jungle hasn't been doing much wrong either, Jason Hart another to watch around here.

Hopefully those jockey angles/qualifiers a useful 'way in' - maybe it's best to find strong reason's not to back them, rather than agonising over them too much? On paper you could maybe give some sort of chance to most of those above, a couple of shorties... but Aztec Empire looks likely to run his race IF the fast ground is ok, could be thereabouts. The course form of Pillow Talk makes her of interest, Burke/Tudhope/Clipper Logistics (Danny's retainer) 4/9,4p, +38 BFSP at the last eight Ebor festivals. 5s may only be fair for the pair however, but again, lots of places to play with.

I haven't had time to have a deep dive in as yet but sometimes best not to overthink, esp for fun money, or muggy multiples, placepots and so on. We'll see how they get on through the week, they should highlight some winners, can we land on them?!

Do check out that research post, where I will add the daily qualifiers, and I'll post up Thursday's qualifiers by lunchtime, at the bottom of the post, HERE >>>

As always, best of luck with any bets,

Josh