Hello Friend

Firstly a belated Merry Christmas - I hope you've had an enjoyable few days with family and friends.

Onto the Welsh National where I usually like to have a couple of pokes onside, in the hope of repeating the win of Mountainous (25s>20s) in 2013 which was my first proper stab at the race on the blog. However I haven't done much in the 5 renewals since bar the odd place but it could be time for another biggie to drop in... 

from the members post... 

2.50 Chepstow 

#1 - SPACE CADET - 1 point EW - 40/1 (1/4, 4p, bet365) 33/1 (1/5 odds 5p, betfS/PP/BV/Coral/Betf) (6p SkyB)

#2 - THE TWO AMIGOS - 1 point win - 20/1 (bet365) 16/1 (WH/BetS/BV/PP/BetF) (18.00 BetfX) 

(prices correct when posted, both have been nibbled at but still 22s and 14s in places) 

I'll start with the obvious... Elegant Escape... who is the strongest stayer in the race and is clearly the classiest. If you're on at 10s/14s then well done, alas i'm not and I have to take him on at 3s in a race like this although he could win it very well, given the lack of depth and his form. This is no Hennessy field and he may well have won that with a stronger pace to aim at/much softer ground. He does have to lug around 11-12 in what will be testing enough ground- softer than last year and he is 9lb higher, 4lb in actual weight, although has likely improved again. He can hit the odd fence and is usually ridden patiently, so there's some hope for those of us wanting to take him on, and in the final 2/3f that weight, in heavy, may slow him down. It may not. While i'm happy to take him on I did want one biggie onside EW and my pin landed on...

Space Cadet - he looked worth a go at 33s, 6.6/1 the place, especially if you ignore the fav he has some of the strongest handicap chase form in this - you do have to look back to late 2017/early 2018 to find it, when trained by Gordon Elliot - but he has some 'staying on' efforts in heavy in some of their premier handicaps. He was moved to his new trainer who appears to have rekindled some enthusiasm with two point wins, before a staying on 4th in another decent handicap chase LTO, in 1st CP. The trainer also had a facile winner yesterday which is a positive, as is the fact Mark Enright makes the trip over - he's probably one of the best Irish jockeys who can do low weights and i'm sure he'd have had options back home. He's ridden the horse before and I hope he may track the pace. If EE underperforms, or his jumping is scrappy, or he empties late on, he could pick up the pieces- if he jumps around and runs his race i'll be disappointed if he doesn't hit the first 5 as I think he will stay better than plenty in here and he has nothing on his back. 

The Two Amigos - he may well not be good enough here and clearly needs to step up but he will relish the ground, stay, he's a very good jumper at his best and he will race on the front end - or try to.  At 16s I thought he was worth a stab and he's only 7 - there could be more to come and I suspect he's another marathon chase in him this season. He ran ok at Fontwell, on his second start back, possibly still needing it a bit although he was carrying 12-1. He will appreciate this lighter weight on his back. He looked a lively outsider to my eyes and can hopefully be leading turning for home. 

Pace/race set up... Well The Two Amigos will try and lead in a race packed with plenty of hold up types (on paper at least). I suspect Bryony will have Yala Enki forward enough also and it could be those two bowling along. However whenever I think there could be an 'easy lead' of sorts in races like this it never works out, as many jockeys seem to want a prominent early position and can be aggressive early. We shall see, but TTA should be up there. I don't know what they will do with Space Cadet but he's been both held up mid div and ridden more prominently in those races mentioned above. He may be able to hold a position easier over this trip, we shall see. 

Best of luck with whatever you fancy, 

Josh