Good Morning Friend,
The Victoria Cup
Below you can find various things to help you solve the hardest punting puzzle of the day, The Victoria Cup. You can find my trends profile, shortlists and my notes from today's members' post. As you know my main 'tipping' focus on the chasers but my 'flat musing's haven't done too badly this season, including the 1st and 4th in The Chester Cup. I can't say I'm as hopeful today, but who knows!
Before that... the May trainers quals have been running ok, but now 0/3,2p, -3. One not beaten far at a decent price but hopefully the first winner not far away. One 'qualifier' today..
3.50 Ling – Symphony Perfect 5/1
*
To Ascot...
Big Race Trends
4.05 Ascot
13/337, 52p
13/13 sent of 25/1 or shorter SP (bigger: 0/126, 11p)
13/13 at least 3lb higher than last win (were not: 0/100, 8p)
13/13 no more than 3lb higher than last race (4lb+ : 0/42, 9p)
13/13 had 4-10 runs in last 365 days (did not: 0/115,12p)
12/13 had yet to run above Class 2 (had: 1/162, 16p)
12/13 running at same distance or shorter than LTO (up 1f+ : 1/60, 2p)
12/13 had never run in the race previously (had: 1/64, 9p)
12/13 ran over 7f+ LTO (6f: 1/58, 2p)
12/13 ran right-handed or straight course LTO (LH: 1/110, 12p)
12/13 ran in a handicap LTO (non-handicap: 1/50,1p)
11/13 aged 4 or 5 (6+ 2/124, 14p, no winner older than 5 since 2013)
11/13 had 0-2 handicap wins (3+ : 2/ 167, 22p, no win since 2012)
9/13 had 7-11 career runs (9/70, 12p, +114) (inc all of last 6)
Other
Trainers
D Elsworth: 2/5, 3p
X1: C Cox, B Meehan, C Appleby, D Coakley, D Marnane, R Varian, G MArgarson, W Haggas, J Goldie, B Ellison, B Hills
*
Applying the trends…
A profile of being at least 3lb higher than last win, had yet to race above C2 and had 4-10 runs in the last 365 days would point to 12/13 (12/102, 30p) and IF upholding would point to seven…
Fresh, Dance Fever, The Turpinator, Popmaster, Royal Pleasure, Hieronymus, Eagleway
Within that list… running at same distance or down in trip from LTO, running on RH/Straight track and having last run in a handicap would point to 10/13 and IF that profile upheld, it would point to three…
Dance Fever, The Turpinator, Eagleway
An alternative ‘profile’ – well at least 3lb higher than last win, highest class run C2… but aged 4 or 5 and 0-2 handicap wins… 9/13 (9/62, 17p), inc all of last six winners…
Fresh, The Turpinator, Dance Fever, Royal Pleasure, Popmaster, Baldomero
Trainers (to have won race/with runners)
One Ruler, Path Of Thunder
Aratus, River Nymph, Dance Fever
Ropey Guest
*
Racing Chat
4.05 Ascot – The Victoria Cup
This race is starting to give me a headache and I’ve been looking at it for long enough. The ground is drying out which isn’t ideal for a few on here on paper. If the going stick is to be believed, the further you move away from this stands rail (high numbers) the quicker the ground, so it will be interesting if low numbers to middle are favoured. To my eyes the main sustained pace may be up the middle. So, where did my pins land… I have used my trends as a strong guide…
Fresh – 8/1- I think middle could be the place to be, it’s where the pace is. It will be interesting if they all merge as one at some point or not, I suppose with 28 runners they’ll stay fanned out. There’s no doubt to my eyes this one is well handicapped, esp if you watch LTO , sweeping from the back to only be denied. He has solid course form, has the class to win this, the yard in good form. The only question is the going – all of his best form on softer. He’s never run on ground with ‘firm’ in the going for all good looks to be ok. However, it’s more of an unknown and I’d rather give him the benefit of the doubt until he proves it otherwise – if he runs poorly here, that will be the ready excuse. He may be bigger on the machine although with 6 places, maybe EW is always wise. He’s one of my ‘beer’ money stabs in a race where I don’t have much confidence, how can you?!
Popmaster – 12/1-14/1 – he ticks a lot of trends boxes, yard in form, Saffie riding well and she’s ridden winners here. He could be drawn in the right place. He has a course win on GF to his name over 6f, ground shouldn’t be a problem, a prep run LTO where apparently he didn’t handle the dip, plenty of big field handicap form to his name. The main question with him is the distance. The stats suggest you want horses coming into this who ran over 7f LTO or moving down in trip. This is his first go over 7f and it’s quite the race in which to put stamina to the test. Of course, the distance move is a reason for major improvement this year and he has looked to be crying out for it to my eyes. So, we shall see, he may travel well for a time and fade in the final furlong, or relish it and power away. Ed Walker knows what’s needed to win/compete Ascot straight course handicaps. The odds just allows the play I think. He has a handicap like this in him this season, whether over 6f or an easier 7f, or today!
I think they’d be my two main stabs.
I had a good stare at the others on the trends shortlists but couldn’t be tempted in for all annoying when I leave a winner lurking on there of course, even for fun money. But of course that profile may not have found the winner this year.
Dance Fever has bits and pieces of form but I wasn’t sure would be good enough but he could be drawn in the right place, but time will tell. Yard in decent form. Odd jockey booking I thought and Kirby prefers another from the yard.
The Turpinator can be keen as he was LTO over 8f. I suppose a chance he relishes a strong run 7f but again wasn’t sure he’d be good enough, but I could be wrong. He’s interesting to a point in this sort of race set up and is lightly raced. I was so so on the jockey booking.
Eagleway nearly won this race last year which makes him of interest but that was in proper soft. All his flat form, inc in France, on a much softer surface, the ground is the big question for him. One to keep an eye on in softer ground handicaps like this, as his effort in this last year suggests he could have something half decent in him over 7 or 8f. But on softer, hopefully!
I suppose Royal Pleasure could be interesting also- it’s that sort of race! More interesting were Luke Morris on I think and he’s now 0/4 on turf, best form on AW, but early days of course. He’s ben well beaten here over 8f , ran over 6f LTO, maybe he’s tripless. Not enough there for me today.
Neither was there for Hieronymus who’s now 0/14,5p on the turf, does have some decent placed efforts to his name, but a class question also. He will race prominently/lead for a time I suspect.
Of course, I may well not have even mentioned the winner, having stuck to my trends profile, which may not help this week. I’ve flicked through the others, a Charlie Appleby horse being well backed on handicap debut but from a tough mark, but maybe he’ll outclass them, drawn in the right place.
It should be informative.
GL if having a dabble… do you fancy anything in the race? Or did it give you a headache also?
That’s all for today, Josh
