Hello Friend

A shame Ascot was washed out on Saturday, although getting my money back was one of my better results in recent times! :) 

Last weekend seemed a fitting point in which to switch 90% of my brain over to the winter jumps, and all of the regular daily content - I've nearly finished by Jumps Profiles report and will have 14/15 trainer angles we can track through the winter. Hopefully they'll work as a systematic portfolio but in any case, some sort of 'way in' to the day's cards. I may also try and find a handful of jockey angles, especially for chases. I've been posting 'qualifiers' for a few days, and if that sort of thing interests you, you know where to find them. 

I'm stepping back from 'daily tipping' and my new signing, the best deadline day signing I think, will start in that hot seat from Nov 1st, although you'll hear from him before then with an article or two. No one in the game, not in my 'tipping' circles anyway, has his unique perspective. Exciting times. Hopefully. It's a new adventure for us both.  

I'll be focusing on big races and trying to pump out engaging content that helps us all in the battle against the bookies. I enjoy posting the odd insight to muse over, even if just an interesting read/watch. A bit like reading a magazine I suppose. 

Later on today i'm going to post a short video looking at the possible resurgence of Brian Ellison but before that, three items to ponder below. 

Yesterday I highlighted x3 'soft ground' jockeys for Pontefract, which pointed to one winner and a few others who placed, and also some logic as to why all of William Buick's rides, esp non Godolphin, are worth some attention given he seems to be chasing the jockey championship - his first two winning at Wolvs last night.

What follows are taken from today's daily post, and you can flick through / note as you please... 

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Having said I was moving on from the flat generally, one horse has popped up in my HRB accounts... (not a tip) 

2.50 Leicester - Dave Dexter (now 10s after R4)

He hits a few of my 'C2 handicap, 1st Blinkers' ways in/angles from my video the other day. That video is HERE>>>  273 or so of you have watched it so far. 

Do with that as you please but it's the sort of angle where you're meant to be more forgiving over recent form/last runs - hence why connections may be reaching for the headgear! CP didn't help him last time mind...

• Yard are in fine form.. 13/42, 19p, +20 in the last 14 days.
• In the last 2 years trainer/jockey are 24/80, 36p, +76 SP in all handicaps (inc on the sand - the AW fans among you may want to note that... well, 6/25, 9p, +11 on AW, better on turf but still solid)
• Beckett with 1st time blinkers...handicappers since start of 2015... 13/58, 23p, +91 BFSP 
• He also gets a first time tongue tie... Beckett with any handicapper in a tongue tie, since start of 2015, is 8/32,10p +57 BFSP (wearing for 1st time.. 1/7,2p, +18)

He can win from this mark (won a Nursery off 87, and followed that up with a listed win, posted an RPR 94 in that Chepstow win two starts back) and everything in here is a fair few pounds above their last win. I'm not sure anything is chucked in here - although a few arriving in form. His light weight may help up that muddy hill also. . 

So, even if he doesn't win, some useful stattage to note for the future. IF the blinkers work, which after LTO they need to, he could take this/be in there pitching. I threw some beer money at him to find out. Maybe more in hope than expectation. If the blinkers don't work he will probably tail in last, (which given i've emailed out is the likely scenario!)  so, we shall see. Even if they do he may need to be at his very best and a few others underperform. 

But, stats wise, and indeed his profile, there's plenty to be hopeful on with him, but i'll leave you to have a closer look.

Beckett's are clearly worth keeping an eye on at the moment, as are those ridden by Rob Hornby in handicaps, and when he reaches for blinkers. He also usually knows when to apply a tongue tie, keeping it on and bring about some improvement. 

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Ruth Carr...  I mentioned her a few weeks back after she fired in a couple of winners, wondering if she was about to go on a spurt. Hmm. Not as yet. Before Monday she was 3/163, 15p since racing returned on June 1st. (only 19 have been sent off at 9/1<, so they generally haven't been expected to go well) I hadn't realised that she basically stopped training them in lockdown - just turned them out, reduced fees for owners etc - they'd have been in a while prepping for a return before that announcement. I think her training methods rely on them running into race fitness on the track anyway- I don't know if health issues, plenty are needing 2-3-4+ runs, she's got loads of badly handicapped types, lost some good staff, or whatever. 

Her stats for last couple of years haven't been great, below 10% overall win SR. Will they bounce back at some point? Who knows. It could be she's decided to prep everything for the winter All-Weather - that's possible. In any case, in theory, there should be some well handicapped ones at some point among her string of 55 or so. And they may fall in at decent prices. There's a few yards that have had a very very quiet summer. 

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Christian Williams... I've nearly completed by Jumps Profiles guide for Oct-April, well the trainers bit - i've 13 angles, and while not superstitious, should try and find one or two more! There's potentially one for Brian Ellison but i'll discuss that in Wednesday's post. Anyway, I had a look at C Williams stats again and while I haven't found a micro angle as such given a chunk of the handicap stats come from a small handful of horses/multiple winners, it's a good time for the reminder that TO DATE, he generally runs his horses into fitness. I think in part that's due to how he trains them at home - what a place to be a racehorse. But, they're not pushed ultra hard at home - I think CW believes in the slowly slowly approach, so they can keep going/still fresh enough, deep into the season etc. Or he cannily peaks them for certain targets of course. 

Anyway - when looking at all his handicappers...

• those with 0-1 runs in the previous 90 days are 1/87, 12p, -85. 
• Those with 2 runs in the prev 90 days are 5/58, 11p, -1. 

Those with 0 or 1 run in the previous 3 months or so are worthy of extreme caution. Looking for reasons to oppose horses/cross them out can be as useful as homing in on positives. And, to date at least, CWs on their first few runs should be treated with caution. Of course, he may change approach and they start flying in on their seasonal returns, but its something to note, as this looks like a clear training method to me. So far at least, for his handicappers anyway. I'm in no doubt he could get them fit enough at home if he wanted to. Worth keeping an eye on. 

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That's all from me today.

As usual there's a few comments of interest building from your good selves, including pointers for the odd horse at Southwell. 

All the best, 

Josh