Good Morning, Friend
Well thankfully the 'curse of the email' didn't strike yesterday and I managed to steer you to a couple of winners. Judging by my inbox a few of you enjoyed flicking through, pondering, and backing the odd one.
It was quiet again on the jumps front from me, given no 3m+ C3+ chases I wished to attack and as such I had a flick through Beverley's card, my musings down below.
Although, given some of the 'flat musing' winners I've had on the blog since the start of the season, inc at 33s (Johan), 20s and 12s, my flat eyes are not working too badly. I like the notes approach and offering something interesting to read, absorb, to apply your own thinking, and to go from there.
Before Beverley...
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To Beverley...
Beverley Notes… (as of 09.08)
1.20 – Capofan – 8/1 EW
An interesting little contest and a few stats to flag. With this one, most of Dods’ come on for their first start (with odd exception and those 1st 3YO stats prev flagged). With his horses making 2nd career start… 14/69, 29p, +108 SP in the last 2 years – the odd biggie flies in and again, that could be one of those ‘set and forget micros’ – his training methods won’t really be changing, so the success of an angle like this relies on him/his bloodstock agents, continuing to re-stock with quality/the type he likes to buy. If he does, that angle will keep ticking over.
This one has a bit to find with Primrose Ridge, BUT… that one had experience, Capofan will come on massively for his first start and he could well enjoy this faster ground- most of his sire’s do better on quicker ground. He’s also much better drawn in 2, the fav out wide in 14, Coraje wide also – they’ll want to get out and across, and they’ve shown speed, but will they use up too much energy doing so? Possibly.
I could see the Dods horse making his presence felt. The three at the top of the market set an ok standard for those to have run, it will take a decent unraced one who knows their job, to lower their colours I thought – but maybe there is one lurking.
Mont Champs and Bara Lacha would be interesting to some degree, esp if strong in the market. Both have some ok supporting trainer and/or jockey stats etc, both trainers have 1st time out 2YO winners, not prolific, but they have them. The Bell horse is very speedily bred.
1.55 – Teruntum Star – 12/1
Hmm, bit on the fence with this one but the old man of the party will have needed his return, he’s 2/5,3p around here, he’s 6lb below his only win last season, which was around here. There is a chance this happens a bit too quick for him but if I was track side, he’d be getting my £5 for interest at this price. The jockey booking is so so, no stats there, but maybe not many available today who can do 8-10, I don’t know. I thought he’d outrun these odds and if running to his last season’s best, would go very close in this line up.
The others all had plenty of questions also for me at the prices. James Watt may be solid, yard in form, that 56 days off niggled at me at his price point, suggesting a training hold up to me.
3.05 – Chelsea Annie – 14/1 EW
Enough there for an interest nibble I think, for all, like Terentum above, fair to say i’m more bullish on all the others flagged today. Still, they’ll probably be the only two winners now! Autumn Festival may bounce out, see ya later, and that’s that. Faster ground is a question but more an unknown, may well improve for it. Can live in hope that Joe Fanning goes forward also and they beat each other up.
Chelsea Annie – well it’s worth keeping jockey Ryan Sexton onside, a decent 7lb claimer, 6/21, 11p in the last 30 days although plenty of them short. This filly is 1/6,3p in career and was fit enough on return last season, outpaced 6f, staying on at Ponte. She’d win a 7f maiden at Ayr a few starts later, before her season tailed off a bit. She is the only horse in the race with a turf win on good/good to firm. But it is a 3YO handicap, plenty unexposed. We shall see, she may not be good enough but was more interesting than a few I thought and hopefully she’s wintered well.
A Keatley had a winner yesterday and with 3YOs / hncps / 7f is 4/22,7p, +13.
3.40 – Masque Of Anarchy – 5/1 (EW? 1/5,4p)
IF this one runs his race, he won’t be out the first 4 here to my eyes. He’s a CD winner, in a 16 runner apprentice handicap, the jockey from that day jumps back on (wasn’t on LTO), he’s had a pipe opener at Donny, racing wider than ideal, should be spot on here (and given course form, surely a plan) and he’s down in class from that run. Most of his form has substance to it, including last time. He’s drawn in the right place also. No excuse, I’m expecting a big big run here. (poor sod)
The fav, Love Your Work, is 0/14,1p on turf, which would put me off at 9/4, but clearly fancied.
Numbers 9, 10, 11, 12 are now a combined 0/75 in their careers to date. This ownership malarkey can be a tough game at times! 5k, 9k, 9k the costs of the first three of them, so not masses, but still.
4.10 – Poets Dawn – 6/1 (preference)/ Casilli – 13/2
Poet’s Dawn – I found it hard to split these two multiple course winners who love it around here. Maybe the fact this one has had a pipe opener and may be further forward in the race , would give him preference. He won this race last year (which makes him preferred also, no doubt the plan), is 3/8,5p over the CD, is 7lb below his last win. Early season may be the time to catch him. He seems versatile ground wise. I’m expecting a big run from him.
Casilli – as I am the mare, IF fit. She won on seasonal return last year which makes me think she will be. She’s 4/6 at Bev and 2/2 over the CD. 5/11,6p on turf to date, a winning machine who still looks progressive. She may want a strong pace as 10f may be more suitable now but she’ll be flying late no doubt, if here to run her race. Let the family Easterby battle commence! She'll be winning around here at some point this season, if not today.
Michael and David Easterby are 8/29,12p at the course in the last year, 6/16,9p with Mick’s granddaughter Joanna in the plate, and she’s developing into a smart pilot.
To be honest, I’m surprised they’re both so big, so maybe I’ve missed something or underestimated the oppo, but those two are the ones for me, pref for Poet’s.
That’s all for today’s musings, to use as you please,
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re-cap…
Catterick’s efforts went ok, a couple of winners flagged who both drifted a little bit. If you like ‘notebook’ horses, i’d add Bicep to it, good early gate speed but outpaced for much of that 5f. On that evidence he needs stepping up to 6f and maybe even 7f in time. Tuer will get wins out of him. Ghathanfar didn’t do much but was never really put in the race, other days for him, somewhere. Maybe the yard are a bit quiet also. Safran halved in price and ran a solid 3rd, cruising around on the outside, wider than ideal for around there. It may be he wants stepping back up in trip, the wind op seemingly worked, and maybe time also. Nothing was beating the fav on the day. He could strip fitter also. Mokaman was weak in the market, ran so so. Given his Catterick record he’s worth tracking, but may pop up elsewhere. He’s usually ridden further forward, but either didn’t have the pace (maybe aged 4 he wants 6f now having spent his life to date over 5f) or today wasn’t his day and it will sharpen him up.
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As always, GL with any bets,
Josh
